I'll take that, I'm in Magaluf on 26th June for a long weekend. The forecast temps this week have been fairly reasonable by day but the night temps of 13/14c are a little on the low side for me. I much prefer the 20C night temps so you can walk in a t-shirt and feel warm still.

Largely below average temperatures progged for next week but not without interest. Slack unstable NW'ly flows combined with very high solar input are a recipe for some lively afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

I shall be watching Tuesday 

More summertime frosts?

Steve, did you leave out the word "below" (before average) in your post? http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/06/17/mixed-bag-for-the-start-of-june/ 

Duly amended Doc. 

LOL, cheers Steve. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 18TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today from the SW with a somewhat more unstable airflow developing over Northern Britain later today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow making the UK it's home for the reliable future as it travels West to East or NW to SE across us in association with a trough to the North or NE. Then in week 2 the orientation of the flow shifts to more of a SW to NE flow across us as Low pressure transfers into the Atlantic towards the West or NW of Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a slow decline of High pressure to the SW across the UK as weak showery troughs push South across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. A Westerly flow will blow across the UK next week with occasional rain principally but not exclusively over the North as further troughs push through. Then in Week 2 the pattern backs West and allows winds to back SW across the UK to encourage warm and humid conditions to affect the South and East of the UK at least while rain at times continues to be a risk towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows just small and subtle differences to the operational run with the second week showing more of a North/South split with rain at times across the North with the South staying dry and fine for much of the time in association with High pressure never far away to the South.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with no record breakingly high temperatures likely as a result and while a fair amount of dry weather will be experienced most towards the SW troughs and Low pressure will run East or SE across the North and east of the UK at times giving the risk of some rain or showers especially in the North and East.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a showery situation developing across the UK over the weekend and Monday as a showery trough moves SE across the UK before things settle down again in the South by Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slowly deteriorating conditions across the UK later in the weekend and start to next week as showery troughs in more unstable air drifts slowly South and East across the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM also shows a period of more unstable conditions across the UK over the weekend and start to next week as a showery NNW flow sets up with some heavy showers across the North and East in particular. The pattern remains more changeable thereafter though still with a lot of dry weather especially in the South with Westerly winds carrying occasional outbreaks of rain across the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds things more set fair across the South early next week than some of the other output restricting the most showery conditions towards the North and maintaining this weak North/South split in the weather for the remainder of next week with the greatest risk of showers maintained in the North with the best chance of staying dry likely across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning is showing deteriorating conditions next week as pressure leaks away slowly to the South to allow more and more unstable air to invade deeper and deeper into the UK through the period. So the risk of showers will increase later in the weekend in the South as well as the North with all areas at risk of rain or showers at times next week as more of an unstable Westerly flow takes hold.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows pressure having leaked away somewhat in the next week with an increased risk of rain or showers as troughs and lower pressure reside in a slack Westerly flow across the UK at that point.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to reflect slightly more unsettled weather developing across the UK with some rain or showers extending from the North into the South too at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 19.6 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS I am not quite so encouraged by the outputs this morning as it increasingly looks like the efforts of High pressure to move into a more favourable position for sustained UK wide warmth look dead in the water today as all models show some decline in domination of the High to the SW in the coming days with this decline maintained for some while thereafter. The Jet Stream is partly to blame again as it remains doggedly too far South across the UK and although not desperately strong it has sufficient power to prevent any ridging across the UK and in fact strengthens it's resolve in this morning's output in assisting more unstable or unsettled conditions to move down across the UK at times from later in the weekend and possibly much of next week too. Changes will not be dramatic though especially in the South and it may be some while before any widespread showery activity arrives here while the North and East always look to be at greatest risk on a daily basis. In my individual accounts from the models above I have not mentioned temperature levels and while no desperately cold weather looks likely with winds blowing across the UK from a cool Atlantic or even more from the North at times it is never going to be remarkably warm and after the reasonable temperatures in the South over recent days I think we will witness a fall back in temperatures nationwide in the coming week as the unstable cold pools of air drifts down across the UK. There is still some indication that High pressure may build back towards the South later in the period returning warm and settled weather here but this is a long way out and subject to moderation or expansion over up and coming ouputs. However, looking optimistically as a whole there is no particularly unpleasant weather on the horizon and while most gardeners and growers will welcome some showers holidaymakers and sun worshippers might of preferred a somewhat better set of output than what is on offer this morning.  

Next update from 08:00 Friday June 19th 2015

Looks like Tropical storm Bill is going to affect the jetstream position next week turning things more unsettled although on the Beeb week ahead they were not confident.

A bit of everything on offer than for most.

A typical average British summer really.

Yep, Louise Lear mentioned this on the week ahead forecast just after midnight last night. Seems to me that until the track of Bill is resolved one way or the other, the models are going to struggle somewhat with what happens further ahead.

Speaking of which, I notice that, not for the first time this week, the UKMO at T+144 is somewhat at odds with GFS and ECM at the same timeframe. Hmmm!

I feel sorry for those further north. I think some might disagree that its been typical

Hi all,

Here's today's video update;

Late June deterioration on the cards?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Could be turning cool and unsettled next week...

Here too, I am fed up with listening to Beeb (MetO) going on about fine, sunny weather while here it is so cold and cloudy.

Today is a classic example with a maximum of 12.8c under a cloudy sky and strong wind, it's another world from the sunshine and 21c being enjoyed across the Midlands and south.

Bring on the Greeny High, up here this summer couldn't turn any worse.

Andy

Disgaree, it could be rather better of course but at the same time it could be a damn site worse. 2012 for starters!

(In the outer reaches of FI...and a warm outlier...but) BANG!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3482.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn34811.gif

Steamy!

Interesting, Brian. I get the feeling that FI in the model output at the moment starts at a pretty early stage. The differences there have been between UKMO and GFS & ECM as early as 144hrs ahead have been notable at times in the last few days.

East of the Pennines it's been quite pleasant really. Nothing too warm, but very usable weather nonetheless.

The outlook does look rather mixed, however. Personally, I've no problem with a col, or flabby cyclonic conditions. Plenty of sun in between the convective action.

Today it was 1.1c colder than New Years Day!

Ok New Year's Day was very mild but an afternoon high of 12.6c in late June is dire, add in the wind that was incessant all day and it felt like late October.

Andy

Indeed.

Just rolling out hence the source... the ECM 12z op run plays a curve ball as the weak shortwave low (the 1010 mb dot to the west of the UK) doesn't make it far enough east to escape the embrace of the longwave trough to its west.

The result:

...which is a serious contrast to this:

...and also dramatically affects the balance of power between the Atlantic and Scandinavian troughs. The latter becomes influential enough on the GFS 12z op run to send the Atlantic trough on a sliding track through the UK, which is not very appealing.

I reckon ECM may favour a more SW-NE storm motion... the day 7 chart has just uploaded and confirms this suspicion. In fact, the trough is still west of the UK with a weak high controlling our weather!

Seconded - the GFS sequence looks like 'rinse and repeat' with weak ridges of high pressure being regularly elbowed aside by Atlantic lows. At least the south gets the benefit of a day or two's warmth in each cycle. 

Not just us, though; look at the below average temperatures forecast across western Europe http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html