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tallyho_83
30 October 2015 13:14:56
Update from Simon Keeling of the weather online: - Some confusion and uncertainty over last two weeks of November!?


Month ahead - October 29, 2015


Valid from 31/10 to 27/11 2015

Very mild start


Issued: Thursday 29th October 2015
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling


Very mild to start November, turning cooler later

A very mild start to November. Most rain in the west, tending to be much drier to the east. Indications are for a more unsettled second week in more northern areas, windy too, but staying mild. A slow change to cooler conditions in the second half of the month with the potential for a cold final week.

*31/10/15 - 6/11/15*
An area of high pressure over Europe maintains the mild or even very mild southerly airflow over most of the British Isles this week. Fronts will be close to Ireland and western Scotland bringing the possibility of some rain here from time to time, especially later in the week. Winds could be strong to gale force too, especially later. Generally drier for most of England and Wales with early fog, although some rain is possible, produced by weak fronts in the middle to latter stages of the week.

*7/11/15 - 13/11/15*
There are indications of a strengthening jet stream during this week, especially over the north of the UK. This brings the prospects of wetter weather in the northern half of the UK, perhaps with a risk of gales, but better to the south where it could be mostly dry in southern England. Temperatures near average in the north, mild in the south.

*14/11/15 - 20/11/15*
Persistent indications in this period have been for rain to be affecting western areas with lower pressure close by, yet high pressure remaining to the east bringing drier weather here. The high retreating further as the week progresses with conditions then more unsettled later. Staying mild overall, wettest in the west.

*21/11/15 - 27/11/15
Possibly turning colder and more unsettled this week as low pressure moves to the southwest of the country. This brings rain across many southern parts of England and Wales, the flow becoming more easterly; perhaps the risk of some sleet in the south? Potentially dry in Scotland, especially the far north.

*28/11/15 - 4/12/15
With lower pressure to the south and higher pressure to the north, the flow could turn more northeasterly for a time, bringing the potential for a colder spell of weather. Possibly wintry in the east and south for a time, but drier north and west. Gradually becoming more unsettled and milder as the week progresses.

Simon Keeling


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


pdiddy
30 October 2015 13:33:26




Obviously not just the Scottish Govt that are stupid naive Express readers then


That said, we could get snow in March.   Just not much before then.


Originally Posted by: Essan 


To be fair, if you read the article, the "press headline"was used as a prompt to ask what the response might be:


At Holyrood, Labour MSP David Stewart said: "I read a press headline today which said 'coldest winter for 50 years to bring months of heavy snow to the United Kingdom'.


The answer was "So, the answer to the question is we prepare for the worst but of course hope for the best"


 


You seem to be confusing the word "Labour" and "Government" I suggest you fire up the DeLorean and turn the dial fowards a few decades...



 

tallyho_83
30 October 2015 14:56:16
Loving the -15c daytime max on 28th Feb but can anyone spot the error!?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/daily-ultra-long-range.aspx?region=6&page=4 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


sizzle
02 November 2015 17:27:01

still think with all this EL NINO talk, and all this mild weather and HP we have been having we have to see some decent cold and snow this winter it just can not be all mild, has to be a balance some where

tallyho_83
03 November 2015 12:42:58

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20151102 




Month ahead - November 02, 2015


Valid from 07/01 to 03/02 2015

Cooler later


Issued: Monday 2nd November 2015
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling


Cooler end of the month after a milder start

After a mild and settled start for many to November, things looks set to turn more unsettled from the second week, especially across the north.
Indications of a cooler final third of the month remain, with wind, rain and some wintry showers for all.

The main change to this forecast from the previous forecast is in the final two weeks of the month.

*7/11/15 - 13/11/15*
An increased jet stream this week bringing wind and rain. However, it's likely that the strengthening takes place over the far north of Scotland and so the wind and rain mostly affects Scotland, northern England and Ireland. High pressure may try to maintain its grip over southern England and this means that it may stay mostly dry here, although breezy. Temperatures near average in the north, mild in the south.

*14/11/15 - 20/11/15*
A gradually changing of the position of the jet stream means that the more unsettled weather may affect a more broad part of Ireland, western Scotland, western England and Wales this week. Higher pressure to the east should keep many southern and eastern areas drier, and again rather mild. The high retreating further east as the week progresses with conditions then becoming more widely unsettled later. Staying mild overall, wettest in the west, but watch for cooler weather later in the week.

*21/11/15 - 27/11/15
It's during this week that we may feel the first hit of winter arriving in the UK. Winds remain from the west, probably with low pressure northwest of Scotland. However, those winds will be derived from a cooler source and so all places are executed to become more unsettled and cooler too. There are likely to be showers following rain bands, and an increased risk of these being wintry in Scotland. There may even be a few wintry showers over England and Wales. Temperatures near to below average for the time of year.

*28/11/15 - 4/12/15
Staying cool and unsettled during this week. Low pressure drives fronts eastwards bringing rain and strong winds at times and the possibility of some heavy burst of rain too. The rain followed by showers, some of which will be wintry, especially on hills. Overall temperatures below normal for the time of year and feeling cold in the wind.

**ends** .

Simon Keeling


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ARTzeman
05 November 2015 23:58:05

Like the cold word.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
nsrobins
09 November 2015 08:45:12

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6733467/Worst-storms-for-144-years-on-the-way-and-will-last-for-three-months.html


 


Just in case you missed this this interesting article.


You'll find it alongside the articles on vaginoplasty and Taylor Swift's wardrobe malfunction.


Must be true then.



Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Nordic Snowman
09 November 2015 09:11:36


http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6733467/Worst-storms-for-144-years-on-the-way-and-will-last-for-three-months.html


 


Just in case you missed this this interesting article.


You'll find it alongside the articles on vaginoplasty and Taylor Swift's wardrobe malfunction.


Must be true then.



Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I think most people nowadays either totally dismiss or take with a rather large pinch of salt all weather-related articles in the press. Yester-year, people raised their heads but thanks to the D.E and the internet in general, most have wised up and can now see them for what they are. I know this particular report is sourced from the MetO but it doesn't state anything specific and is still based on probabilities rather than anything else... which is to be expected given the timescale to which is referred.


The irony about the autumn thus far is that with all the media talk of this and that, the actual weather has generally been very benign and somewhat zzzzzzzz. We need to see the demise of that boring Euro High in order to get some much-needed action....


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Maunder Minimum
09 November 2015 14:28:29

Not so long ago the media was screaming that this would be a cold and bitter winter because of El Nino - now for a damp and wet and windy nasty dose of ghastly realism because of El Nino:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11983384/Three-months-of-storms-set-to-batter-UK.html


Three months of storms to batter UK - as vile as 2013 - 2014 winter.


So damnably predictable and so damnably depressing!


(Don't believe them about freezing conditions in early 2016 - that is bullshine).


Ignorant article in any case - it talks about "strat warning"


New world order coming.
Essan
09 November 2015 18:19:24


Not so long ago the media was screaming that this would be a cold and bitter winter because of El Nino - now for a damp and wet and windy nasty dose of ghastly realism because of El Nino:


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11983384/Three-months-of-storms-set-to-batter-UK.html


Three months of storms to batter UK - as vile as 2013 - 2014 winter.


So damnably predictable and so damnably depressing!


(Don't believe them about freezing conditions in early 2016 - that is bullshine).


Ignorant article in any case - it talks about "strat warning"


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 




Some papers (The Sun was one - having "obtained" the "secret" MetO report that everyone can read on their website ... ) have thrown in -14c and lots of snow as well as being mild, wet and windy.   Just to cover all bases.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Girthmeister
11 November 2015 16:45:48
Amber warning out for Scottish Isles for the next couple of days, with Storm Abigail winding up:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447286400®ionName=uk 
Maunder Minimum
18 November 2015 16:38:30

Boring update from the Meto. Would like them to be completely wrong, but the form horse says they are correct. frown


New world order coming.
festivalking
18 November 2015 19:08:03

Not sure what Nick Millar was chewing on before he went on air at 6.30 tonight Building up a right sweat suggesting snow can fall anywhere over the weekend. Not what the latest models are suggesting. Hey ho as is the case over egg the pudding to make people more aware of the possibilities I guess 


Dousland, Dartmoor 206 m/asl
Its only going to snow when Gibby says so.
Russwirral
18 November 2015 19:16:22


Not sure what Nick Millar was chewing on before he went on air at 6.30 tonight Building up a right sweat suggesting snow can fall anywhere over the weekend. Not what the latest models are suggesting. Hey ho as is the case over egg the pudding to make people more aware of the possibilities I guess 


Originally Posted by: festivalking 


 


given the initial temps and thickness's hes probably right.  Alot of people could see snow.  But it will be transient and probably on the tail end of a shower.


 


Its looking rather dry this weekend.  Although nothing too cold, its nice to see this kind of weather in November before Winter starts proper.


doctormog
18 November 2015 19:45:40
Dry for some perhaps. I would now go as far as to say that even here in low lying Aberdeen there could very well be settling snow on Friday and Saturday. The Met Office certainly seem to think so:

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/755927/forecasters-expecting-snow-across-north-scotland-week/ 
Twister
19 November 2015 09:57:42

After saying 'showers' then 'wintry showers' it's nice to see the Met Office now using the 's'  word for SE England...


Outlook for Saturday to Monday:


Much colder with sleet or snow showers over the weekend, and Saturday feeling raw across Kent with gale force northerly winds. Monday drier after early frost and possible wintry showers.


Source


 



Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
"The heavens tell of the glory of God. The skies display his marvellous craftsmanship." (Psalm 19:1)
wsf_01
19 November 2015 11:30:02
Weather warnings for snow in large parts of Scotland and North England on Friday pm into Saturday am now published...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447977600 
Tranent, East Lothian
90m asl
Tim A
19 November 2015 20:26:29
http://veryweather.co.uk/2015/11/uk-heavy-significant-snow-warning-tomorrow-night-share/ 

If only. Perhaps the most incompetent and hopelessly optimistic forecast I have seen. So many people suckered in on my Facebook feed tonight.



Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Gooner
21 November 2015 13:59:57

Seem standard winter stuff really


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
23 November 2015 11:40:07

Another boring update from the Meto - we need a disruptive SSW to get rid of the zonal dross.


New world order coming.
Sevendust
23 November 2015 12:28:50

Standard winter fare

David M Porter
23 November 2015 17:31:56


Another boring update from the Meto - we need a disruptive SSW to get rid of the zonal dross.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


I have heard on the grapevine that our luck might be in wrt that later in the winter.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Whether Idle
23 November 2015 17:36:44


 


I have heard on the grapevine that our luck might be in wrt that later in the winter.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


...its just wishful thinking


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj20LKdg8-8


but try this..


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7dGdrP3pms


 


 


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
23 November 2015 17:41:01


Standard winter fare


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


Yes, they could have saved quite a bit of time by just writing: "Typical weather for the time of year" 


Russwirral
24 November 2015 17:32:51
in other news - i havent seen any express ramping for a few days now... youve got to take solace in that at least 🙂

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