Interesting that netweather considers the -25 850 line more likely to hit the UK (in winter) than the +20 (in summer). Goes to show just how warm it is

ECM 2m parameter highest yet on this 12Z run with the UK managing to get into the 32-36C band by Friday.

Small early changes in the 18z will have implications down the line that aren't good. 

Edit: sorry, for a split second there I thought it was winter on TWO 

Or the start of pushing the plume further east 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015062618/gfs-0-144.png?18

18z is absolute bobbins compared to the 12z. I wonder where this will sit in the ens. Don't look if you're faint hearted lol

Actually this is as dreadful as the 12z was amazing 

Nighttime mins by Friday 6am halved from the earlier 12z figures in the 20s lol!!

Urghhh and it gets worse. I'm not even going to look at the rest of it. 

Will have a quick squint at the ens later and then see what the morning brings, but this is a cooler. Literally. 

Yes, quite a contrast - 8C uppers are already encroaching on Saturday whereas on the 12z 15-16c uppers were still over most of the UK. Temps reach 30-32C on Thursday and that's it - although high 20s on the other days.

Hopefully tomorrow morning is better - and hopefully this isn't a new trend. Certainly reveals how things are far from nailed on just yet - and would be our typical bad luck if everything went wrong now.

Usually i look forward to Stormchaser's analysis but i cant help feeling he should go back to enjoying his holiday... just in case, don't want this heatwave to be jinxed. 

Probably not a great time to point out that there is also quite a spread on the ECM ens after midweek as well. 

I posted this after last night's rather crap 18z. Let's hope this is similar...

Navgem will scare away the gfs night terrors 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2015062618/navgem-8-144.png?27-00 

Yep, that works; 40C in the UK, 24C in Cyprus.

One of the more lunatic charts, even by NAVGEM's standards.

Oh dear. The 18z ens continue the downgrade. Urghhhhhh 

The 18z is called the pub run for a reason. This place has suddenly become like a winter thread

Yes.  Quite a change from the "high water mark of the 12z" with reduction of the depth and duration of the hot spell.  As we all know, with potential extreme weather events its important to wait until shortly before the "the train arrives" before getting too cock-sure about things.

Things could change back this morning.  Or get cooler and wetter...

very nice gfs mean

as is gm opp        More runs needed await ecm

as is you know who

Hmm, a bit sweeping there I think Moomin:

The 0z GEM shows much of eastern UK under +15 850s at day 9-10:

East looks best for heat on this morning's developments but best to wait til Sunday's models as we know that the truer picture for 30 June - 05 July will not be clear til then in such a knife edge scenario.

Hot runs again this morning. The 0z GFS suite appears to be more focussed on the peak of the plume more towards the SE this morning peaking late Wednesday with a thundery day on Thursday that would stifle T2M potential.

All in all a very interesting situation evolving.

From a SE Kent perspective GFS still brings in upper air parameters of 575dam, 850Hpa's of 21c and 925Hpa's of 26c at the peak. Incredible really.

NAVGEM still looks dangerous, GEM and UKMO are very hot too. 

GEFS ensembles are starting to show some form of resurgence of heat Friday/Saturday ish too. 

ECM awaited with interest. 

Some silly and dramatic comments from the usual suspects are to be ignored. 

just 96 hours away