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July 2013 was very sustained at least here in the southeast. 19 consecutive days over 28C somewhere in the UK.
http://www.trevorharley.com/trevorharley/weather_web_pages/2013_weather.htm
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Nearly 3 weeks ................blimey I cant rememeber that ......................age I guess.
I'd be surprised if that didn't happen last year in July. It's been somewhat forgotton but last year was the hottest on record CET.
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
I'd be surprised if that didn't happen last year in July.
Definitely didn't for my patch. Not to the criteria I mentioned anyway, although it was a good spell of weather.
GFS has suddenly started making more of the heat low and running it north before merging with the Atlantic trough. This acts to tilt the jet more toward the UK and from there on the plume setup collapses, albeit not without a battle on the 00z op which turns into a peculiar run as the Euro ridge holds on but the Atlantic jet is super-flat. The hot air toys with the far south throughout lower-res.ECM and UKMO are still keeping the heat low weak and trapping it under a ridge from that large high to our NE in 4-5 days time. The plume stagnates over a large part of the UK.I notice that GFS has that high considerably weaker at that time. A result of the heat low behaviour or cause?Whatever happens, you can see why I remained cautious yesterday and continue to do so today, despite background signals strongly supporting a lack of westerly momentum for 4 or 5 days at least starting next Monday.
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Great post as always from Stormchaser- hot spell on its way without doubt but questions remain on how long lived and intense. Will be interesting to see the next few GFS / ECM runs to see which one moves more towards the other I think.
Great post. Thanks for making sense of GFS' shenanigans I hope it's overdoing that heat low.
That's a British summer time classic that is.
A few tweets from Ian Fergusson this morning. I'll put them in here rather than the media thread:
@fergieweather: W COUNTRY The rise in temperatures will become very marked from Tues into Weds-Thurs next week. Expect high 20's for many districts by Weds.
@fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONT'D However, it's entirely possible certain localities (e.g. urban #Bristol) could reach 30C by Weds & poss similar on Thurs.
@fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONT'D Threshold temperatures at which a Heat Health Alert (heatwave) warning would be enacted in our region is 30C day, 15C night
@fergieweather: "@forester_redman: @fergieweather Ian is it set to last beyond next week or not ??" Signal for generally a lot of dry, warm weather in July
I'm just trying to recall the last sustained spell of hot temps we had here. This is a personal opinion of hot and sustained, but for me it's anything over 25c and anything over 4 or 5 days. I genuinely cannot remember, but it hasn't been for quite a few years I don't think?
Originally Posted by: Matty H
last year and the year before for me 😄
Originally Posted by: Gooner
i thought it was last year but it could have been 2013 as both years were almost identical in heat for us. I do remember a period of 10 or so days were the maxes where above 28C each day and baring one day all 'offical' were along the Solent region between Hurn & Thorney.
As recently as July last year here, 5 consecutive days of 25C or over (22nd-26th).
yes July 2013 was a belter. 19 days above 28C. I remember it well as my sister-in-law's wedding was right at the start of the long hot spell. We were out in a marquee and it was (almost) too hot for drinking alcohol, especially when wearing a suit...
Yeah, not sure. I don't keep personal records, but 2013 doesn't stick in the mind, although it may well have been good here. 2006 I do recall.
Clearly a number of people on this site have very poor memories. July 2013 was an absolute stunner across much of England and Wales.
Here are the stats for Bristol Filton. 14 out of 16 consecutive days had a maximum above 25C. 8 consecutive days with a max of 26.7C or more.
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03628&ndays=30&ano=2013&mes=08&day=01&hora=09&ord=REV&Send=Send
Here are the figures for Charlwood near Gatwick. Similar story. 4 days above 30C. 5 consecutive days of 28.7C or more.
http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=03769&ndays=30&ano=2013&mes=08&day=01&hora=09&ord=REV&Send=Send
Back to here and now and in these situations it is best to look at what the ensemble means are doing rather than focus too much on individual op runs.
GEM 0z ensemble mean has the 850hPa 20C line close to or within the UK land mass from Wednesday lunchtime to Thursday lunchtime
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-21-0-108.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-21-0-120.png
After that the really high temperatures retreat south but even by Saturday the plume is still there and the 850 temperatures are above 16C across the south
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gens-21-0-180.png
The control run keeps the hot air closer to the UK
The ECM ensemble mean shows the plume being tilted more to the east allowing somewhat cooler air across the UK next weekend but still very warm in the south with temperatures above 25C
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015062700/EDM0-168.GIF?27-12
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015062700/EDM0-192.GIF?27-12
NAVGEM op run is similar to ECM in that the plume tilts to the north-east fairly quickly taking the hot air over to Benelux. But it also has much hotter air generally than ECM and pushes it much further north across the UK in mid week.
The NAVGEM ensemble mean is more closely aligned to the ECM with the hot air restricted to the far south of the UK and drifting east quite quickly
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/nogaps/run/gens-21-0-102.png
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/nogaps/run/gens-21-0-132.png
The GFS is showing a similar pattern. Here is the 6z
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015062706/102-7.GIF?27-6
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015062706/144-7.GIF?27-6
The far south east remains warm as it is closest to the hot air.
So there does seem to be a general theme emerging that the hottest air will only give the UK a glancing blow which is not unusual in these situations. But even so it should remain on the warm side in the south even after the really hot air moves east.
Thanks. Really do not recall that lol. Mind you that was two years ago and I'm already struggling to recall what I did yesterday.
Indeed, but that isn't my point.
People are talking as if its only the 20c 850Hpa isotherm that is going to deliver the heat ? Anything in the 15-20c range sustained over a period of a few days will still deliver serious heat given any sunshine.
Originally Posted by: Gusty
Aye, what were the 850hPa temps yeaterday when it reached nearly 28c? ...... Obviously wont need to be much more to get into the 30s
Originally Posted by: Essan
About 12C. Today they are only 6C in the south and I still expect to see 23C or so.
July 2013 isn't that memorable I think because it was only one month, with June and August being OK but nothing special. Because of that it wasn't part of any kind of "legendary summer" nor were there hosepipe bans, record temperatures or any of the other things that stick a month in the memory. Others of similar ilk would be July 1999, August 2009, June 2010, July 2005.
Originally Posted by: TimS
July 2013 sticks in the mind as it came after a long run of poor to mediocre summers 2007-2012, bringing the best spell of summer weather for seven years.
Even August 2009 was persistently rather cool and windy here, though better further E in the SE as I understand it.
as for the current situation - it was always going to correct East - when ever we get a plume in summer or a northerly plunge in winter, it almost always corrects east.
July 2014 was actually just as warm down along the Solent as July 2013. In 2014 Thorney had an average daily maximum of 24.1C compared to 2013's 23.8C.
Hurn had a July 2014 maximum average of 24.6C compared to 2013's warmer 25.3C.
Solent has missing Data for 2014 so I can't include it, however living down here I can vouch that we had more days at or into the 30's last year then we did the yer before. Solent's 2013 July average maximum was 24C.
UKMO is very good indeed
So, GFS sticks to 4 days or so of very warm or hot weather before a weekend pile of cack. UKMO says no. I wonder which side of the fence ECM will come down on. One things for sure, the longevity of this spell is far from nailed.