What is being predicted for this coming week will no doubt make many school kids in England wish that school stopped for the summer at the end of June, as happens in Scotland.

Don't think I'd much like the thought of being at school until just before mid-July myself tbh; the summer is nearly half-over by then and the nights are starting to draw in ever so slightly by the middle of July.

Not forgetting of course the thousands of Scottish schools that are still in class for another week (throughout the "heatwave" )

Stupid school holidays that start from late July to early September had ruined my chances to see 42-47C heatwaves in Cyprus when I used to live there and go back every term, missed many chances as most heatwaves abated by the time I arrived there, just a crumb of 40-41C for a day or 2 instead if I am lucky.  I like the way in USA and Canada schools closed from last week of June to last week of August which sounded right for here if half terms was scrapped.

Hope the models won't start showing unsettled and cool pattern once schools are out in late July.

When do your area's schools finish, Michael? When I was at school we normally stopped sometime between 27th & 30th June, but I have known it to be earlier than that on occasion in recent years.

Nice output this mornings especially for the SE and EA. 

Ukmo looks good

ECM excellent throughout especially for the SE

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm482.html 35c still possible nr London on Weds

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html 90f again sat 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html stunning for all

Thankfully it's gone now to be replaced by the Azores high strongly ridging in. Of course not much faith can be put in one run of one model in that timeframe, however all things being equal I'd rather not have it there. Don't wan't any nasty trends developing :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Bit different between GFS and ECM on day 10 but too far to be of concern

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 29TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm SE airflow will move North across the UK in the next 24-48 hrs as troughs of Low pressure near the far West move away North tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed to the West of the UK over the Atlantic. The flow then returns North across the UK for the majority of this week before veering to a more SW to NE flow over the UK next weekend and beyond as the mid Atlantic Low pressure drifts more to the NE of it's current position to lie to the North and NW of the UK next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a very warm or hot week to come especially tiwards the South and East of the UK. Some scattered thundery showers within high humidity os possible but fresher air over the West and North will make inroads across the UK at times this week. A largely SE/NW split in the weather remains for some time into week 2 too with the SE remaining largely very warm and sometimes humid well into the second week before the generally cooler and more changeable conditions in the NW are shown to spread to all areas by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a virtually identical pattern in the first week and start to the second before it diverges from it's operational brother in bringing new warm summer High pressure across Southern Britain later in week 2 with any unsettled, cooler and changeable weather mostly restricted to the North and NW next week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show High pressure out to the SW with the warmth having largely been pushed back away to the SE by then with some indication of showery Low pressure then lying up to the North and NE of the UK

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a very warm period of weather to come and hot in the SE with some incursions of cooler and fresher air slowly making progress East across the UK at times accompanied by scattered thundery showers.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support humid and sultry conditions to the East of Atlantic thundery troughs occasionally moving East across England and Wales from mid to late week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather developing through this week with the East and SE likely to show the highest temperatures. Some ingress of cooler and fresher air will affect the North and West at times and as this infiltrates into the East and SE at times it may be coupled with some thundery showers. A North/South split then develops next week with rain at times in the North with relatively dry and fine weather becoming restricted to the far South where it may still be warm or very warm at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions from the middle of this week never look like becoming far away from the South and SE of Britain with any notable coolness and more changeable weather conditions restricted to Northern and Western regions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks the best of the bunch this morning if it's fine and sunny weather with high temperatures that floats your boat. This week sees the East and South especially seeing some high temperatures with high humidity at times sparking a few thundery showers. Cooler and fresher as with the other output does cross the UK at times but is pushed back North and West at times by the persistent heat over the continent. Then towards the end of the period High pressure forms across the UK to settle things down in the North and West too to leave all the UK with fine, sunny and very warm weather late next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.4 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.9 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.8 over 46.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 25.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS After the weekend and now that we are close to the much hyped heatwave across the UK this week it is nice to see that the models have come to agreement on the pattern for this week. All models show the very peak of warmth will lie across NW Europe and just affect the extreme East and SE through midweek with a rather cloudier, very warm and humid zone across Central areas of the UK where the risk of thunderstorms look greatest. Having mentioned thunderstorms it doesn't look as though they will be a widespread feature but where they do occur those affected will certainly know about them. The heat is looking more and more likely to come in two pulses, one towards midweek and again at the weekend with a period where many areas become a little cooler and fresher at the back end of this working week. As mentioned earlier the extreme SE and East will likely see temperatures well in excess of 30C and possibly 35C Wednesday and again towards the weekend. Elsewhere 25-30C is more likely and as the cooler air passes a more comfortable 22-25C looks likely. Nevertheless, these are all very impressive temperatures and nowhere looks like being cold over the next few weeks with even the NW seeing some warmer days between it's generally more changeable pattern with rain at times. As we look towards the later stages of the time period this morning most models support various methods of arriving at a North/South split in the weather where the South looks likely to hold on to some of the warmth generated this week. ECM is particularly impressive next week as it shows a nationwide spell of warm and sunny weather setting up under High pressure next week and it would be nice to see this enlarged upon over coming days. Still there is nothing alarmist about anything within the models this morning with even the thundery scenarios hinted at in earlier days watered down now to transient and very local downpours in association with the weak pushes of cooler air moving across from the West on occasion.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 30th 2015

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif

Again very different to ECM's version

The old adage about FI being at T120 is pertinent at the moment. Until we get through the handling of the potential reload at the weekend it'll be a struggle to know where this is going

06Z in FI looks fairly decent though, probably more settled for the North in fact with potential thundery lows passing through the Channel.

I think that will decide whether this July will be a slightly warm month or a hot. Next week will determine a lot as to how this coming month will be.

Sitting in the garden the strength of the sun would be too much after 30 minutes but with a cool breeze you can feel the air temp has not yet risen to 'heatwave' quality.
I had no idea the models can overplay heat just as easily as they do freeze ups in winter months. Last week showed record breaking potential but I doubt we'll crack 33 even in London, so a fairly mediocre heatwave gradually fading after Saturday looks likely.

It was like that until about lunchtime but you can really feel the warmer air arriving now. We've added about 4C between 1pm and 5pm here. 

In fact the 12z has the heat returning more strongly and not just reserved for the SE now on Saturday 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

that's called heating of the day, a common thing that happens when the sun shines for hours on end. :p

The dew points are actual lower now then anything we have had in the last few days, sitting just below 12C. 

The warm plume has yet to arrive, and isn't expect until tomorrow at some point. In see it could even get down to 11-12C tonight in rural areas of the south east... Quite cool for a summer heatwave if you ask me.

But you just said the plume doesn't arrive until tomorrow 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE