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Matty H
28 June 2015 13:18:10

I think the most accurate, and consistent, is the Weatheronline website. Unfortunately no app as far as I can tell. But it seems to be more than just raw ECM or GFS output - I think it is GFS based, but for example the last 2 days it accurately got 27 and 25 for the London area. (Not doing so well here today mind).

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Weatheronline is GFS based. 


I think with all of this apps and sites, they're relatively accurate at short range - a day or two - but after that they go downhill rapidly, especially when you have a situation like this where fine margins make a huge difference to our part of the world. 


Rob K
28 June 2015 13:22:10
One thing I've noticed is that the BBC weather app consistently underestimates temperatures, sometimes by 4 or 5 degrees even on the day! It often shows "max 19C", say, when it is 23C at the time!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
LeedsLad123
28 June 2015 13:34:26

I find weather online the most accurate for here as well. Currently shows a high of 31C on Wednesday which is entirely possible.

iPhone uses weather.com which isn't great for the UK.

Met 5 day forecast is useless. Constantly underestimates temperature. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
28 June 2015 13:43:37


I find weather online the most accurate for here as well. Currently shows a high of 31C on Wednesday which is entirely possible.

iPhone uses weather.com which isn't great for the UK.

Met 5 day forecast is useless. Constantly underestimates temperature. 


Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


Just checked weatheronline and it gives a temp of 32C on Wednesday , and 30C again on Friday, 28C on Saturday.


A decent spell if it verifies. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Patrick01
28 June 2015 14:01:02

I'm a bit peeved by the speed at which the storms appear to be edging in by Wednesday for this part of the world, but it will certainly be an interesting week regardless of what exactly plays out IMBY, so I'm not too bothered by that just not (I will be if Wednesday does turn out to be damp and misty here in contrast to the rest of the UK though!) 


It does look likely that there will be a clean break for most from the heat between the 5th-7th, but then there looks to be an even spread of members favouring a continuation of warmth over a cooler regime taking hold, so I'm not too put-off by the current signs of northern blocking just yet. 


 


 


 

snow 2004
28 June 2015 14:03:20


 


Just checked weatheronline and it gives a temp of 32C on Wednesday , and 30C again on Friday, 28C on Saturday.


A decent spell if it verifies.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


If the wind direction is off the Pennines or Peaks then some really good temperatures could be achieved around here and the Greater Manchester area this week. I don't think 32c is out of the question for Manchester on Wednesday. 


Glossop Derbyshire, 200m asl
picturesareme
28 June 2015 15:55:56
Couldn't be a worse wind direction for heat down here, southeasterly winds suck.
Muckyme
28 June 2015 16:06:50

It is nice to see some hot weather around but it looks much better in the South and East than the North and West initially which is fairly typical for British weather of course. The likes of Manchester don't look that sunny through the first half of next week, possibly quite wet at times in fact, with warm humid days and unbearable sticky nights.


I much prefer fresher weather low 20s and sunshine if there is nothing extreme on the cards. It may improve later in the week though with the West probably seeing its best weather Thu Fri when a ridge builds back in.


Some glorious, if rather uncomfortable,summer weather on the cards further South and East - perfect Ashes weather.


 

Muckyme
28 June 2015 16:28:36

Still looks odds on for a fairly quick breakdown to the initial spell and GFS wants to develop a trough over the UK as it merges low pressure systems but UKMO shows more potential for a reload, keeping the systems separate and potentially building a ridge ahead of the next incoming LP.


 


Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Joe Bloggs
28 June 2015 16:41:09


It is nice to see some hot weather around but it looks much better in the South and East than the North and West initially which is fairly typical for British weather of course. The likes of Manchester don't look that sunny through the first half of next week, possibly quite wet at times in fact, with warm humid days and unbearable sticky nights.


I much prefer fresher weather low 20s and sunshine if there is nothing extreme on the cards. It may improve later in the week though with the West probably seeing its best weather Thu Fri when a ridge builds back in.


Some glorious, if rather uncomfortable,summer weather on the cards further South and East - perfect Ashes weather.


 


Originally Posted by: Muckyme 


A bit "glass half empty" IMO.


MetO text forecasts indicate a "low likelihood" of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, and if we do get a temp of 32C, that would be pretty unusual. :-) 


Some evening thunderstorms after a hot sunny day are all part of the fun anyway! 


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Muckyme
28 June 2015 18:31:02


 


A bit "glass half empty" IMO.


MetO text forecasts indicate a "low likelihood" of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, and if we do get a temp of 32C, that would be pretty unusual. :-) 


Some evening thunderstorms after a hot sunny day are all part of the fun anyway! 


 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


 


You could be right Jo, it may be overly pessimistic, and MetO are going for mainly fine conditions as you say but interpretation of the MO says we will only briefly get the hotter temps, Tue/Wed and those will come with a lot of cloud and high likelihood of showers. If I were planning a day out in the NW next week I would choose tomorrow or Thu but maybe will only get showers and cloud on Wed and later Fri?


 

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2015 18:36:35

22c 850s from ECM for weds. 36c I reckon for the SE 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
picturesareme
28 June 2015 18:38:52


22c 850s from ECM for weds. 36c I reckon for the SE 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm722.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


 


Matt Taylor on N24 earlier said 33-35C possible in southeast.

Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2015 18:39:34

23c 850s on Saturday. 36c again I should think with sunshine in the SE 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2015 18:42:59


 


 


Matt Taylor on N24 earlier said 33-35C possible in southeast.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Not surprised the July record is definitely up for grabs Wednesday and Saturday.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Whether Idle
28 June 2015 18:49:18

Jaw dropping heat possible next Saturday - but at six days subject to change.  Check out the +24 uppers targeting Ian and Darren:



Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Matty H
28 June 2015 18:49:51

Personally I can see us falling well short of 30c in this neck of the woods. Mid to possibly upper 20s, but with high humidity it will feel hot. 


Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2015 19:01:54

Still very warm and muggy for the SE day 8/9. High 20s possible 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
28 June 2015 19:03:26

Then Autumn arrives day 10! Lol


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
springsunshine
28 June 2015 19:06:45

Apart from a couple of days this week,the models seem to be suggesting a north/south split for the first half of July,at least.


July this year could be like chalk and cheese between north and south.


The south could see a very warm/humid month with some blistering heat whilst the north being much cooler although still pleasant with temps around average with the odd warm day in the low to mid twenties.


Interesting times ahead!

Matty H
28 June 2015 19:16:36


Then Autumn arrives day 10! Lol


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Thats about as bad as it gets. 


David M Porter
28 June 2015 19:33:25


Then Autumn arrives day 10! Lol


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I suspect that will turn out to be an outlier, let's hope so anyway.


FWIW, that ECM chart looks like a throwback to the pattern that dominated May and the first week of June!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
White Meadows
28 June 2015 19:49:40


 


Thats about as bad as it gets. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

not for anyone working in an office with no air con. This week is going to be hell for a lot of people cooped up like roast chickens. 


Thank god it looks like I booked off the best possible week of the year!

Gooner
28 June 2015 19:58:15


not for anyone working in an office with no air con. This week is going to be hell for a lot of people cooped up like roast chickens. 


Thank god it looks like I booked off the best possible week of the year!


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


And my kids in their school , they will be red hot


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


scillydave
28 June 2015 20:36:10
Spare a thought for me - I teach in a classroom that has ceiling to waist height windows that run around the east, south and west facing walls. Lovely and light in the winter but a proper furnace when the strength of the sun gets going from late spring onwards. We hit the very unpleasant heights of 43c in the classroom a few summers back and that was with the blinds down and all the windows open as far as they will go (which due to their design is about 3 inches!)

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

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