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Charmhills
29 June 2015 17:12:30

Some very strange and possibly misguided posting in here wrt heat.
Gravesend has topped out at 26'c today under uppers that are 10'c lower than what we may expect on Wednesday.
If people can't see why it may get over 33'c on Wednesday in that scenario then we have a problem.

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


The proof is in the pudding as ever Dave.


But I see what you mean.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Sevendust
29 June 2015 17:15:13


 The proof is in the pudding as ever Dave.


But I see what you mean.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Evening Duane - Hope you get a storm out of this

Charmhills
29 June 2015 17:18:52


 


Evening Duane - Hope you get a storm out of this


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


And you Dave.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
picturesareme
29 June 2015 17:29:57


 


But you just said the plume doesn't arrive until tomorrow 


Originally Posted by: WanderingLonelyAsACumulonimbusIncus 


Trying reading a whole paragraph/sentence tongue-out

Rob K
29 June 2015 18:06:42


 


that's called heating of the day, a common thing that happens when the sun shines for hours on end. :p


The dew points are actual lower now then anything we have had in the last few days, sitting just below 12C. 


The warm plume has yet to arrive, and isn't expect until tomorrow at some point. In see it could even get down to 11-12C tonight in rural areas of the south east... Quite cool for a summer heatwave if you ask me.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Not really true. The 850s were about 10C here at 1pm. By 6pm they were 13C. That is the start of the plume arriving IMO. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs062.gif


There was a definite difference in "feel" through the afternoon, as the wind became a lot warmer. Not just the daytime heating as on previous days the wind stayed cooler.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
29 June 2015 18:10:22

Anyway it will be interesting to see what the highest 850s are (as per T+00 chart) in the end. Currently, 48 hours out, we are still seeing a couple of little bubbles of 21C. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs482.gif


 


and then the 21C isotherm also returns in the early hours of Saturday morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1082.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Cumbrian Snowman
29 June 2015 18:14:59

For your information and amusement down south, the last time it reached 33c in Cumbria was in 1901 


 


At my station its only ever been above 30c on 5 occasions in the last 16 years

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria 117m ASL
http://www.bramptonweather.co.uk 
Follow me on Twitter 
picturesareme
29 June 2015 18:28:26


 


 


Not really true. The 850s were about 10C here at 1pm. By 6pm they were 13C. That is the start of the plume arriving IMO. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs062.gif


There was a definite difference in "feel" through the afternoon, as the wind became a lot warmer. Not just the daytime heating as on previous days the wind stayed cooler.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


i live near the sea and can honestly say I've noticed no difference in how 'warm' the wind feels. As regard to how today had felt compared to recent ones? A little less humid feeling. 

Rob K
29 June 2015 18:35:21


 


i live near the sea and can honestly say I've noticed no difference in how 'warm' the wind feels. As regard to how today had felt compared to recent ones? A little less humid feeling. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


 


Perhaps the cool sea is responsible? Here, 40 miles or so inland, it felt more like proper heat late this afternoon than it has for a long time.


 


Anyway back to the models and the second peak is almost as high as the first on the ensembles. Then into mid July less hot but looking generally dry for London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
29 June 2015 18:36:20

ecm has the later a little bit stronger 23 uppers on the Kent coast


 



 


 



Anyway it will be interesting to see what the highest 850s are (as per T+00 chart) in the end. Currently, 48 hours out, we are still seeing a couple of little bubbles of 21C. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs482.gif


 


and then the 21C isotherm also returns in the early hours of Saturday morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1082.gif


Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2015 18:43:50

Another very good ECM with 35c possible both Wednesday and Saturday. Then Monday we get this temps up to high 20s again.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
29 June 2015 18:51:58

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0



 


 



Another very good ECM with 35c possible both Wednesday and Saturday. Then Monday we get this temps up to high 20s again.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Gooner
29 June 2015 18:53:33


Another very good ECM with 35c possible both Wednesday and Saturday. Then Monday we get this temps up to high 20s again.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Certainly some decent weather for those that like the heat

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arcus
29 June 2015 18:55:15
As quite often happens, signs of a rinse and repeat from some of the models in the medium to long term, with Atlantic low pressure coming up against an ever-willing ridging of high pressure into the UK. The MetO longer range outlook certainly hints at this.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
29 June 2015 19:02:31

Another stunning day 10 chart from ECM. Mid to high 20s for many. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
29 June 2015 19:04:14

ECM 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
picturesareme
29 June 2015 19:09:06


Another stunning day 10 chart from ECM. Mid to high 20s for many. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


That's more like it 😊 E/NE winds, foehn effect, easily high 20's possibly low 30's down here.

Polar Low
29 June 2015 19:10:06

indeed Matty very nice trend and pattern for summer 2015 at the mo as our friend to the s/w keeps helping us out.


Could we have a 1976 all over again? who knows but some fun weather to be had over the next 10 days or so.




ECM 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 

David M Porter
29 June 2015 19:13:19


Another stunning day 10 chart from ECM. Mid to high 20s for many. 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Looks a bit better for the NW of the UK as well.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Quantum
29 June 2015 19:19:33

Since the interface is pretty horrible, I will list the 2m max temps the ECM12z is predicting:


Tuesday: 28C


Wednesday: 32C


Thursday: 26C


Friday: 30C


Saturday: 32C 


So while the 850s are impressive the air is moist so the temps arn't getting that high.


 


For those that didn't get my rule of thumb last time, this is how I generally convert between 850 and surface temp (this is not used for the above though, these are actual ECM 2m temps)


 


Wet: Add 7C


Moist: Add 10C


Dry: Add 15C


Extremely Dry: Add 18C


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
29 June 2015 19:22:18


 


 


Perhaps the cool sea is responsible? Here, 40 miles or so inland, it felt more like proper heat late this afternoon than it has for a long time.


 


Anyway back to the models and the second peak is almost as high as the first on the ensembles. Then into mid July less hot but looking generally dry for London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


perhaps the felt part is a combination of expectation and inland being cool of late?? 


Dew points and relevant humidity have, despite 23C heat, been at their lowest for about a week today. Perhaps living closer to the sea means we get spoilt on the coast with slightly higher humidity the 40 miles inland? 


What have the models been forecasting Dew Point wise for this current spell, is there a way we can view them?  😊


 


 

nsrobins
29 June 2015 19:54:13


 


perhaps the felt part is a combination of expectation and inland being cool of late?? 


Dew points and relevant humidity have, despite 23C heat, been at their lowest for about a week today. Perhaps living closer to the sea means we get spoilt on the coast with slightly higher humidity the 40 miles inland? 


What have the models been forecasting Dew Point wise for this current spell, is there a way we can view them?  😊


 


 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


As a South Coaster like me you should know that the immediate coast (and I include the southern half of Portsea Island in that) will always suffer a moderation from the sea in a S/SE wind (sea-breeze or latent vector). Add the fact that local SSTs are, like much of the N Atlantic, subdued. I'd even go as far as saying The Solent is around 3degC below normal for this time in June (having been in it this weekend I can testify to how nippy it is). So for a predicted max of 30C I'd say the South Coast on Wednesday could struggle to get to 23C.


Now swing that wind round to the E or NE and it's a completely different story, and Lee for instance often gets really hot in these conditions.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Whether Idle
29 June 2015 19:59:09

JMA has 15+ uppers back into SE by day 8 after an absence of 3 days


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
picturesareme
29 June 2015 20:41:49


 


As a South Coaster like me you should know that the immediate coast (and I include the southern half of Portsea Island in that) will always suffer a moderation from the sea in a S/SE wind (sea-breeze or latent vector). Add the fact that local SSTs are, like much of the N Atlantic, subdued. I'd even go as far as saying The Solent is around 3degC below normal for this time in June (having been in it this weekend I can testify to how nippy it is). So for a predicted max of 30C I'd say the South Coast on Wednesday could struggle to get to 23C.


Now swing that wind round to the E or NE and it's a completely different story, and Lee for instance often gets really hot in these conditions.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


The effect on portsea island can be border line bonkers sometimes, you can have a 1-2C drop for every half mile closer to the sea in the prevailing wind direction.


Intersting you should mention the water temps, I was just looking on the Lee-on-Solent surf site and I'm a little dissapoited they have removed the sea temperature part 😕


I'm certain portsmouth will (away from eastney/Milton) do much better then 23C :-)


We had that today 😉 


 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2015 21:15:02


 


As a South Coaster like me you should know that the immediate coast (and I include the southern half of Portsea Island in that) will always suffer a moderation from the sea in a S/SE wind (sea-breeze or latent vector). Add the fact that local SSTs are, like much of the N Atlantic, subdued. I'd even go as far as saying The Solent is around 3degC below normal for this time in June (having been in it this weekend I can testify to how nippy it is). So for a predicted max of 30C I'd say the South Coast on Wednesday could struggle to get to 23C.


Now swing that wind round to the E or NE and it's a completely different story, and Lee for instance often gets really hot in these conditions.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I thought the same but then checked the SSTA maps and despite the very cold Atlantic, the South Coast and the channel seem to be somewhat warmer than normal. Here are the maps and figures:


http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.6.29.2015.gif


Temperatures in the channel are around 16C at the moment, which is not exactly bath-like, but I suspect the near shore conditions and winds make a difference to how much warmer the water is right on the beach. FWIW the warmest I can remember the channel was in August 1990 when's it really did feel like a swimming pool.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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