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Gooner
28 June 2015 20:03:31

Mon 26c


Tue  28c


Wed 32c


Thurs 30c


Fri 30c


Sat 33c


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Arctic Hare
28 June 2015 20:21:12
My closest is Pershore, for which I'll guess at:

Monday: 22°C
Tuesday: 26°C
Wednesday: 29°C (just because it would be annoying!)
Thursday: 25°C
Friday: 27°C
Saturday: 25°C
Sunday: 22°C
POD
  • POD
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2015 20:27:30

Kenley airfield, about 1.25miles away.

Mon. 25c

Tue. 27c

Wed. 30c

Thu. 28c

Fri. 25c

Sat. 30c


Pat, Crawley Down, West Sussex.
Matty H
28 June 2015 21:08:52


Anyone else fancy a go at predicting the daytime highs for this working week at their closest station? I'll have a go at mine:


 


Filton:


Mon: 21c


Tues: 24c


Weds: 26c


Thurs: 22c


Fri: 25c


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


I thought I'd be a tad conservative with my estimates, but going on the latest Local forecast I might actually be overestimating on some of those. 


idj20
28 June 2015 21:28:52


 


20.4C is the warmest you've had all year?? 😮


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



 As in today.

But, I reckon I could add another 10 C or 11 C to that come this Wednesday even for my coastal location.


Folkestone Harbour. 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2015 21:41:07
Today's top temperature 23C in Aberdeen (together of course with "Britain's Death Valley").

It's no coincidence the nearby river is called the "Med"way.

I predict Gravesend will take top spot again tomorrow with a Westerly breeze backing Southerly over the Kent downs. By Tuesday the winner is more likely Heathrow or Northolt with SSE winds and intense sunshine.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2015 06:37:48

From this morning's BBC forecasts it seems to me that the thunder risk is now being downplayed. Words like 'chance of thunder' and 'isolated thunderstorms' are being used. Certainly no general thundery breakdown to cooler & fresher condiitions, well not this week anyway.


Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Arcus
29 June 2015 07:07:45


From this morning's BBC forecasts it seems to me that the thunder risk is now being downplayed. Words like 'chance of thunder' and 'isolated thunderstorms' are being used. Certainly no general thundery breakdown to cooler & fresher condiitions, well not this week anyway.


Originally Posted by: Col 


I think the BBC are wisely not trying to show anything too specific at this range - it does not mean the risk isn't there. The MetO's outlook issued this morning certainly doesn't dismiss it:


"Very warm with sunny spells on Wednesday, but then thunderstorms likely later. Warm or very warm on Thursday with thundery showers. Mainly dry and warm on Friday, but showers later."


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jonesy
29 June 2015 09:14:29


Anyone else fancy a go at predicting the daytime highs for this working week at their closest station? I'll have a go at mine:


 


Filton:


Mon: 21c


Tues: 24c


Weds: 26c


Thurs: 22c


Fri: 25c


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Gravesend


Mon: 25c


Tues: 28c


Weds: 30c


Thurs: 25c


Fri: 24c


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Russwirral
29 June 2015 11:30:33


 


 


not to mention Brighton Beach ! 


 



Originally Posted by: idot 


 


and quotes of people  "flocking" to places... like the said beach, or to parks, or water features....  People wont walk or drive there, they will "Flock" there.


Dougie
29 June 2015 12:09:23


 


Gravesend


Mon: 25c


Tues: 28c


Weds: 30c


Thurs: 25c


Fri: 24c


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


I hope you are right Jonsey, but I think you are way too low, especially for Wednesday when I think 35°c will be closer to the mark. Thursday and Friday could also be 3 or 4 degrees up on the figures you have given.


Ha'way the lads
Jonesy
29 June 2015 12:17:23


 


I hope you are right Jonsey, but I think you are way too low, especially for Wednesday when I think 35°c will be closer to the mark. Thursday and Friday could also be 3 or 4 degrees up on the figures you have given.


Originally Posted by: Dougie 


I hope I'm right as I don't want it any hotter when working/sleeping .... I'm hoping the Rain Thursday and Friday keeps it a touch cooler, obviously will feel warmer as will be humid and muggy. 


 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Gooner
29 June 2015 13:42:07


Mon 26c


Tue  28c


Wed 32c


Thurs 30c


Fri 30c


Sat 33c


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


26c is looking a possibility , Sun is dominating the skies now , clouds have run for cover


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 June 2015 16:56:08

Think we maxed out at 26.0C in Gravesend today, its about 1C higher than the 6Z GFS predicted and a full 3C higher than yesterday's 12Z.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Sevendust
29 June 2015 17:01:18


Think we maxed out at 26.0C in Gravesend today, its about 1C higher than the 6Z GFS predicted and a full 3C higher than yesterday's 12Z.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Pretty good bearing in mind uppers are to rise 10'c by Wednesday

Polar Low
29 June 2015 17:12:30

Trying to check for thermal and solar radiation on station but I cant see any at the moment awaiting writtle college to confirm currently



























Summary / TemperatureWindRainOutlook

















Current condition iconsunny
Currently: 25.9°C, Max: 27.1°C, Min: 12.7°C25.9°C
Colder 1.2 °C than last hour.

 Comfortable 

Feels like: 26°C

24-hr difference
4.6°CWarmer 4.6°C than yesterday at this time.

















 TodayYesterday
High:27.1°C
15:00
21.9°C
11:21
Low:12.7°C
04:39
15.6°C
02:41





















 Wind from WSWWSW
Calm
Gust:
2.3 mph
0 Bft - Calm
Today: 11.5 mph 09:49
 


































Rain Today:0.0 mm
Rain Rate (/hr):0.00 mm
Rain Yesterday:2.3 mm
Storm Rain:0.0 mm
This Month:5.4 mm
Season Total:188.5 mm
7 rain days in June.










 

Humidity & BarometerAlmanacMoon






















Humidity:34% Decreased 1.0% since last hour.
Dew Point:8.8°C Decreased 1.4°C since last hour.
Barometer:1020.4 hPa Falling 0.30  hPa/hour.
Baro Trend:Steady























Sunrise:04:42
Sunset:21:20
Moonrise:18:28
Moonset:02:49
















Waxing Gibbous
Waxing Gibbous, Moon at 12 days in cycle
93%
Illuminated

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 June 2015 17:16:09


 


Pretty good bearing in mind uppers are to rise 10'c by Wednesday


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


But will humidity also rise? 


I think this is going to harm the hot temp potential the most.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arcus
29 June 2015 17:17:22

With regard to TSTMs, tomorrow's influx of heat and humidity looks relatively stable away from the cyclonic influence out west, but Northern Ireland, (and possibly some western areas of Wales and NW England, although inhibition looks more intact here) through SW Scotland into NE Scotland looks possible, although storms may well be well scattered and orographic forcing may be the deciding factor.


More general risk on Wednesday in western and central areas, with Wednesday night into Thursday looking more interesting for the SE and EA, but that's a ways off at the moment.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
29 June 2015 17:21:24
I think 26C is 2C above what GFS 6z was showing isn't it? And 25C in Heathrow was 2C above what was shown for West London.

So far so good. Central France by the way was about 3C above GFS maxes today, which is good news.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
29 June 2015 17:23:14

think that's going to be mighty close to record as winds swing slightly more s/e usual under cook 3 if not 4 c good depth of heat to our s/e


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Sevendust
29 June 2015 17:36:29


 


But will humidity also rise? 


I think this is going to harm the hot temp potential the most.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Well it's not purely down to uppers but winds will swing SEly so minimal cool SST effects in the SE.


Presumably if no storms or cloud develop then we have near maximum solar heating to contend with.


What effect humidity has remains to be seen but without cloud it will be very interesting.


BBC forecast just now showing 33'c for London with a hint it could be higher.

Matty H
29 June 2015 17:50:48

I also like that chart. Minimal risk here. 


Rob K
29 June 2015 18:01:42


Think we maxed out at 26.0C in Gravesend today, its about 1C higher than the 6Z GFS predicted and a full 3C higher than yesterday's 12Z.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


You got a bit ahead of yourself. The max today was always going to be very late in the day because the uppers are rapidly rising. Gravesend was showing 26.3C at 6pm and may well have gone a bit higher than that.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Polar Low
29 June 2015 18:07:53

That looks fun and games on this mornings fax chart that cold front is moving very slowly in front of the 564 then the pivot as warm and 564 thickness expands north looks very good for action




 


 



 


 

Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
29 June 2015 18:15:15

The most vulernable record is probably the highest minimun. We have to get 24.0C to beat the all time record. Friday night/Tuesday night are both candidates, and we have a much bigger chance than of making the highest maximun because the plume has constantly stayed over the UK for that period.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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