HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JULY 2ND 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A thundery trough will move North across the UK today followed by a slightly fresher SW flow for a time before humid East winds return later tomorrow in the South along with a further thundery trough.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and more changeable with some rain especially in the North. Drier and warmer at times in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Jet Stream flowing North over the UK currently. Over the coming couple of weeks it remains close to the UK but veering more towards a SW to NE axis or even West to East axis late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows the recent hot weather pulled back towards the extreme SE and South over the coming days before being largely eliminated altogether later in the period. The Jet Stream is responsible flowing more and more towards a less favourable for warmth SW to NE or West to East flow across the UK in association with Low pressure to the North and West. Rain at times seems likely though with High pressure never far away to the South of the UK next week the South could still find some warmth at times between very occasional showers. Later on though all areas look like turning showery in Westerly winds with nearer to average temperarures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run follows the operational in theme this morning with just day to day variations in the distribution of rain bearing troughs and showery spells later. It also shows that temperatures will return to average levels for all once the last embers of the European warmth leave the SE next week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters continue to show mixed messages with nearly all members suggesting High pressure down to the SW with some or little influence across the UK so a mixture of dry and bright weather or cloudy with outbreaks of rain or showers in temperatures close to average given winds from most members are shown to be between West and NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows the heat leaving the SE at the weekend with a much more changeable look about the charts for the start of next week with Low pressure over or near the North with Westerly winds for all delivering occasional rain and showers through on temperatures close to the seasonal average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air eventually winning the battle against the humid and very warm conditions across the SE in the coming days as Atlantic fronts push NE then East across the UK towards the beginning of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows cooler air encroaching to all areas through the weekend and the start of next week with some showery rain likely for all. High pressure is then shown to nudge back towards Southern Britain later next week offering a return to something warmer and more settled again at least for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a slow transition to more of an Atlantic influence with some rain at times for all in a Westerly breeze. It should be noted though that Southern Britain never lies very far away from more Summery High pressure based weather held just to the South of the UK for now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today follows the other models in gradually turning things cooler for all and not just the North and West through the weekend and next week. There will no doubt be some rain at times but probably not much in the South as Higfh pressure looks like building to the SW which would mean a return to cool NW'lies and large amounts of cloud while any rain is restricted more towards the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with a Low pressure up to the Northwest and High pressure to the SW with the light West wind gradually receding the warmth slowly away to the SE with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to suggest cooler weather for all with time as the Atlantic takes control with generally Westerly winds, average temperatures and a little rain at times.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.8. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.3 pts with GFS at 82.0 pts and UKMO at 81.3 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 44.7. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 26.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS It seems likely now that we are slowly losing the influence of the continental heat that has affected parts of the UK in recent days. The change is a slow one with still some high temperatures to come in the SE tomorrow before a slow trend to push the high temperatures away to Europe gains momentum from the weekend. The culprit is Low pressure in the Atlantic which gradually moves towards Scotland sending cooler Atlantic borne winds across the UK. Troughs in the flow will bring rain at times next week and while fine, summery weather never looks like being too far away to the South at any point on this morning's output there is little sign of it making any big push back within the confines of this morning's runs. ECM is not so good this morning either as it shows a worrying sign of parking High pressure to the SW late in it's run and feeding relatively cooler NW'lies down across the UK in a similar way that afflicted June so much. If this morning's cooler evolutions are correct it's a good call from GFS today as it's clusters have been suggesting High pressure to migrate to the SW again in it's outer reaches for some time and with the support of ECM this morning it must be taken as a possibility of evolving. So what do we need to see the heat return. Firstly I would like to see the Jet stream move further to the North and NW of the UK rather than over us as is currently progged. In that way the Azores High to the SW or a European version to the SE could push Summer heat back our way but for the moment that's not looking likely. Secondly and alternatively I wouldn't mind seeing Low pressure slip further South in the Atlantic so that pressure could rise to the NE over the UK to set up a Scandinavian High and feed warm but not humid weather from Europe across the UK. This is the pattern which is best assured of a longer warm period that what we have recently encountered although I appreciate that eastern coastal counties folk would not like this pattern as much. Still we have what we have and while it's looking a lot cooler and fresher over the coming few weeks for many it is unlikely to be a washout and no doubt there will be some reasonable dry and warmish periods between the occasional showers.

Next update from 08:00 Friday July 3rd 2015

I have found ECM and GFS to have been at odds with each other on a number of occasions at a fairly early stage in the past couple of weeks, ever since the LP system which was TS Bill came into play which may have had a hand in this week's hot spell. I agree that ECM does look a bit better if it's settled weather one is looking for.

06Z bring some further hot weather next weekend at least bang on at the weekend than the working week.  Temps would be 25-30C and possible low 30's by the weekend and it been firm on that so hope a upgrade on higher temps if possible.  It seem a 3rd July on the trot for being the warmest/hottest one again.  At least no cold weather nearby and the already heated continent are powerful and here to stay so we should get them a lot of times this year.  Even another hot weekend on the FI and I have a feeling that the yesterday heat might be a starter and we could get something even hotter like in 2003.

ECM ensembles look very warm and settled for the South especially from Day 8 onwards. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

GEFS6z looks consistent with the latest MetO 16 day update with the best of the weather in the south and the chance of blowtorch heat returning late next week off the continent for a time. Don't look great. Don't look bad. That about sums it up IMO.

It looks like an 'English Summer'...   I use the term English to refer to the sort of summer which we come to expect in the UK as a whole.

Meanwhile I see the GFS has high pressure only clinging on along the s coast in the mid term.

With all that heat bottled up over the Continent, risk of very warm/hot conditions are never far away.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015070212/ECF0-96.GIF?02-0

The smart money would be for a more Atlantic dominated pattern for the next few weeks.

But I would not bet Jiries shed on it.

To get a temperature just 1.5C off the all time record as early this is amazing - there must be some more very hot days to expect.

That is in fact a really quite amazing chart. Reminds me of a few hot years - but I'm saying nothing else 🙂 I don't want to put the kiss of death on it. :-)

Back to the models and the JMA shoes a typically upbeat scene with the +15 850 contour just over the French side of the Channel Coast at day 8:

And the "toilet paper"model that got the 37c maximum for Thursday right on Monday whereas GFS went for 32, suggests settled and warm for the south at 168hrs:

I've been travelling all day but a quick glance at the models reveals some signs of the pattern amplification that could bring about another significant blast of heat from Europe.

Despite the arrows pointing completely the wrong way for a plume across the UK on day 7, the cool air only brings relief to the eastern half of Europe days 8-10, and we see heat across Iberia on a similar scale to what preceded Wednesday's event, with a ridge establishing a similar shape. Day 11 would most likely be into the 30's and day 12 heading toward the mid-30's again, though the cooler, more showery interlude across France would probably prevent temperatures from climbing quite as high as just seen.

The GFS 12z seems to wander somewhat aimlessly days 7-14, as if two conflicting signals are battling it out. Crucially though, the Euro heat is never any further south than central France, and in fact it slowly but surely increases in magnitude to generate for day 16 the most extreme European heat plume that I have ever seen modeled in terms of extent and intensity. With the weak trough out west letting loose a shortwave toward Iberia things would probably turn a bit crazy for the UK over the following few days.

I reckon the ECM run makes a more interesting point for the time being - that any long draw southerly is likely to produce particularly high temperatures across parts of the UK.

The GFS run is more along the lines of the 2003-style run of events as others have rightly mentioned already. Poor old Europe .

By the way - the potential cool incursion next week is brought about by a trough retrogressing from Siberia to Scandinavia - among the ultimate evolutions for very cold conditions in the depths of winter but a right pain in the backside in the heights of summer!

It's pretty much the only way that a notable batch of cool air could be brought our way given the broad-scale pattern. Figures.

Sums up how unremittingly crap our climate is. If anything can go wrong it will. Every time without fail.