Can't see it coming off as it very odd run but ECM is the likely solution and giving out a nationwide warmth 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

That most likely set-up as I see this many times before for hot spells as LP take it time to move in allowing more days of settled and warmer temps.

Becoming warmer and dryer with time

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0     

Yes a very nice ECM especially for the South 20c 850s not far away next Friday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

The High pressure builds in from the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

If we did have an wet week here I couldn't complain. We haven't had one since April here. 

GFS looks pretty dry for the SE. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Much wetter further West and North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

ECM looking pretty dry and very warm for the South

Better still to leave it until November  We always see rain 90% of the time in this country so having few months break from proper rain that lasted for weeks and weeks during the poor summers to just occasional rain every now and then from thunderstorms are much welcome.  

It look dire on London ensembles showing no warmth at all but from the posts at NW they mainly believe ECM or UKMO are the likely solution for interesting summery weather.

Who's up for some heat and storms then!

Met/o run looks interesting to.

Right... two ends of the scale from GFS (below-left) and UKMO (below-right) so far this evening:

GFS develops a significant area of low pressure, which pulls some heat north for a toasty Friday across much of England, but then blasts that away big time, after which we again see another low crossing the Atlantic merge with the one departing the UK and generate a major trough over Scandinavia.

UKMO doesn't develop anything much at all, keeping the low very weak as it drifts east through the UK to merge with a broad trough over Scandinavia. That broad trough is present on none of the other model output, and this divergence starts at just 4 days range, so I'd be surprised to see it verify. With the trough on the far side of Svalbard instead, we should see more of a trough/ridge combination to develop west of and over the UK, though not necessarily as much as GFS goes for.

One thing I reckon UKMO may be handling better is what happens with the next low in the Atlantic. It's shown to be tracking further south than GFS takes it, with less of a ridge through the Azores. This reflects a weaker, more meandering (meridional) jet stream, such as ECM has been predicting over the past two operational runs. With no tropical forcing to drive a stronger jet stream, I find this sort of solution more believable than that of GFS.

It's a big deal, because a stronger jet is what inevitably tips the balance of power in favour of a Scandi trough as opposed to a mid-Atlantic one. Over the past month or so we have seen GFS going for that on a number of occasions, but in the majority of cases the jet speed has been adjusted downward, low pressure held more to the northwest or west. Hopefully we're going to see another example of that for this coming week.

As for as surface conditions in the UK are concerned, the odds seem to be in favour of a succession of relatively brief plumes of heat with similarly brief blasts of Atlantic westerlies in between, as lows develop to the W or SW and track N or NNE, ridges with associated sunnier skies and high temperatures moving through Europe with a transient presence across the UK, mostly toward the SE. 

ECM looking very warm for the South next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

Tries to build pressure from the South once agin not a bad run for the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Plumetastic once again from ECM at day 9 . 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

ECM offers much of England and Wales a very warm Wednesday and Thursday followed by a hot Friday in the southeast. This means UKMO is left all alone with its weaker low heading straight east.

ECM then sticks with the second low taking a southerly track, though it undergoes a lot more development on this run:

Some substantial heat pays a glancing blow to England on the following day. With the break in the heat two days prior (though still warm in the south) I doubt this would trouble the 1st July maximums - probably 30-32*C tops when taking into account the fact that the airmass is more tropical maritime in nature (not the tropical continental that really gets those temps soaring).

I think the 00z ECM op was more interesting for the UK going forward from day 10 what with the weaker low and the trough dangling right down toward the Azores. The dramatic flip toward such a strong LP lowers confidence in the latter stages of this run from an already low starting point - it's one of countless possible outcomes, ranging from sensationally hot to alarmingly cool (the GFS 12z op run illustrating that side of things clearly!).

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JULY 12TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trailing and weak cold front will slowly edge away SE out of Southern England today. A further warm front will cross NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow in a mild and muggy SW airflow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Somewhat changeable with some rain at times but driest in the South with some short warm spells at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow generally moving West to East across the UK at the moment and there is not much movement in this through the coming week. However, towards next weekend it appears to move somewhat South while troughing across the UK. Thereafter, after a period of weak and indecisive positioning it settles to the North of Scotland late in the period strengthening somewhat.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is quite a complex run it that it is dealing with relatively weak areas of Low and High pressure mostly in the vicinity of the UK through the whole period. In essence the thrust of the forecast is for a weak Westerly flow to continue delivering spells of some rain and showers, mostly in the North while the South sees the best of any dry and brighter weather. However, a somewhat more potent Low develops from the SW next weekend and then away to the NE through Week 2 allowing the pattern to reset with the rain and showers for all next weekend looking likely to become restricted more towards the North again later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in the course of events through the first week with the Low shown at the end of the week on the operational shown here too. However on this run, in Week 2 this Low moving away to the NE is superseded by another one which keeps the weather rather unsettled for longer with all areas seeing some rain well into week 2 before it shows a cooler NW flow down across the UK by the end of it's run

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning continue the theme of High pressure lying to the SW of the UK in 14 days time with a Westerly airflow across the UK and as usual in these patterns it is likely that the biggest influence of this will be felt across the North where the most rain will fall as Low pressure lies to the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows slack pressure gradients across the UK later in the coming week and with a small upper Low moving NE across the UK towards the end of the week some rain or thundery showers are possible. Then as the weekend approaches High pressure ridges in from the SW to dry things up again to conclude what looks to be a fairly benign and otherwise quiet week weather wise.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to indicate that relatively weak fronts will remain hung up across Southern Britain for several days in  fairly slack pressure gradients across the UK with a little rain in places.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a similarly slack period with troughs hung up across Southern Britain this week with a lot of cloud and a little rain at times. The North looks like being more showery before this run shows more mobility developing later in the run as Low pressure to the NW strengthens a SW flow across Britain with rain at times especially across the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps things very slack through the coming week with no particular atmospheric feature having overall control across the UK. So a benign week looks likely with a little rain or showers at times but a lot of dry and quiet weather too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows the current SW flow weakening in the coming days as pressure becomes slack across the UK. Then a deepening Low moves NNE across Western areas with an increase of wind, cloud and frontal rain for probably all before the pattern resets to what we have currently to end the run with a SW flow and some rain at times for the North and West in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a trough from Low pressure over Scandinavia lying SW to the West of the UK keeping much of the UK in a somewhat unstable SW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still no definitive trend detected from this morning's output with all models playing around with rather complex and often slack synoptics.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.2 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.2 pts followed by GFS at 81.6 and UKMO at 81.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.0 pts over GFS's 49.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.9 pts to 30.5 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The atmosphere around and over the UK is currently quite slack and will remain so for the reliable future. With a lot of relatively weak fronts, Low pressure and High pressure ridges possibly affecting the weather across the UK in the coming week it is very difficult for humans to decipher what particular weather type is going to command dominance in any one place day to day let alone computer models trying to look further ahead. Nevertheless we have what we have and the overall outcome is for there to remain a lot of cloud across the UK under quite weak fronts, delivering some rain and drizzle at times in the coming days. Outside of these zones will be some drier and brighter weather with a few showers. Then later in the week there is still some support for a slightly more coherent Low pressure area at least to move over or to the NW of the UK bringing breezier weather with a more commanding zone of frontal rain over the UK late in the week. Once past the models seem to want to bring us back to square 1 with a SW flow and Low pressure up to the NW bringing rain and showers at times to those regions while the South and East return to drier and warmer phases between very occasional rain bands closest to higher pressure over Europe. So a very difficult pattern for forecasters to predict over the coming period with overall dry conditions probably outweighing wet ones but pinning down local detail could be very difficult and while the weather could be a whole lot better for sun worshippers there is nothing alarmist showing in any output which will trouble outside activities to any great degree for much of the time with temperatures never straying far from average if not rather above in the South at times.

Next update from 08:00 Monday July 13th 2015

You could have summarised that in one word: CRAP. 

Locally, ECM is a corker, especially in FI.

Agree about us being overdue a good August. Had we had a good August last year, then last summer could have been one of the best ones of the last 20 years but it was rather cool and often unsettled in comparison to June and July.

If things do improve more generally later in July and into August, then perhaps this summer could become a "back-to-front" version of last year.

Love your optimism, David! There will be a lot of focus on the vagaries of the NE Fife weather this week with the Open starting on Thursday at St Andrews. Looking at the models, I'm not envying either the golfers or spectators Friday and Saturday but still time for things to change. After a great July last year it's been poor locally thus far: we've already had our average monthly rainfall and it's only the 12th. I expect better living in the driest, sunniest corner of Scotland!

It might well be, but I couldn't care less if it all died in the sun. 

Especially as it doesn't die, just goes into sort of hibernation.

I'm with you, I'd prefer loads of brown grass cos it's not rained for a month

Who needs computer models to forecast the weather when all you need know is that school holidays start* at the end of this week!

* plus or minus a day or two ... some counties are slow off the mark.

Yes we are well overdue a good August which has been mainly poor for ten years, 2003 being the last really good one . 2009 was very dry here but not exceptional temperature wise even 2006 after the hot July August faded as it did last year