In my experience, it's not worth relying on August to save a summer. Very few are noteworthy apart from odd exceptions, and even those are only up there due to the weather in the first half. September is often a better month for decent weather but by then the daylight is markedly reduced.

Would agree. Septembers here locally have proved to be quite dry and anticyclonic recently. Can't remember the last 'bad' one in fact.

Good August's were a dime a dozen before 2006 but the final week is often much cooler. Still usually provides the hottest weather of the year. Besides 2006 July had been lacking for notable heat, until this year.

August 2013 was quite nice btw. My birthday is on the 22nd and it was 25C in 2013 - with a thunderstorm to boot! It was 31C in 1995 though. 

Very nice ECM let's hope it's onto something. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

 Ends up  very very hot!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

I think ECM has caught the scent!  The final third of July could yet rescue many an optimistic CET prediction made in the two day wonder heat wave.

Well the UKMO looks to be going the same way as ECM at day 6. So some more hope

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Well the Met Office's further outlook for July has consistently believed in warm if not hot incursions from the south, and that remains the case. Good to see positive signs in the charts, too 

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

This morning's much flatter UKMO and ECM runs had me unsettled but this evening the pendulum has swung back toward amplified, albeit without GFS in tow as usual.

It is crucial that the jet exits the U.S. on a SE trajectory at first, turning more S with time, as that allows the trough to dig a long way south and build a ridge ahead of it that most likely crosses the UK and then drifts into Europe.

The major pattern amplification certainly does arrive in the GFS 12z op run, but like with many recent efforts it doesn't kick in until after the Atlantic trough has powered across to Scandinavia. This results in an amplified mid-Atlantic ridge instead of a trough - hence the stark differences between the GFS and ECM output... although not as pronounced this evening due to GFS coming up with a weak low near the Azores that briefly allows both a mid-Atlantic and an Azores Ridge to exist simultaneously!

Before all that, we have the rather strange week ahead, with the slack westerly flow and a couple of very weak disturbances bringing some showers and spells of rain to parts of the UK, temperatures faring well in any sunshine but otherwise tending not to climb much above what look to be relatively high overnight minimums for much of England and Wales (mid-teens often).

I may as well conclude with the best eye-candy on offer this weekend for those who like it hot:

The day 10 chart is approaching 2003 levels in terms of having a lot of hot air in place, a decent ridge across Europe and only weak low pressure in the vicinity that looks unlikely to produce a swift breakdown.

Of course, the uncertainty levels are through the roof at the moment so this is like a distant dream... or nightmare, depending on your point of view!

Some hints of an improvement in the weather being suggested by the models tonight, with high pressure gradually becoming more influential generally with time. As James (Stormchaser) rightly says, there's still an awful lot of uncertainty re the medium to longer range, but let's hope it's the beginning of a trend on the models over the coming days.

Save it for my last week of July when I am off.  Yes it been a very long time since we saw a proper HP that should sit in the east of us which mean a normal occasional hot spells set-up, not West of us that should reserve for Autumn to Winter time.  Also good for rest of UK to join the warmth. 

I will get interested if there a prospect of a heat wave that should last longer and we shouldn't be the first one to lose the heat. I never seen this problem back in the 90's when hot spell move from Spain to arrived here while Spain return to normal temps and France lose it heat due to thunderstorms while UK remain very hot for another day until the storms in France move in. This was every occurrence and guaranteed in the past and never see this happening again since and remembered seeing the N being hotter than the south as the heat departed from here.

The key moment in that ECM run seems to be a secondary low developing within the western flank of the mid-Atlantic trough on day 5, which then digs south.

UKMO has the feature too, but the system as a whole is less energetic so we don't see such dramatic results for day 6.

GFS has other ideas, developing the secondary low a day later and within or near the eastern flank of the trough. That encourages the jet to track NE or in this case straight on east. In fact it's striking just how flat the jet stream is by day 7. At least the 18z has weakened it compared to the 12z so perhaps there's room for something more interesting to appear in the GFS output.

Come to think of it the 18z is a very giving run up to Thursday, with the warm air making it further north on Wednesday allowing for the mid-20's to be reached quite widely across England despite a lot of cloud, followed by the small system from the west developing early enough on Thursday to pull a good wedge of hot air up through England, resulting in temperatures touching 30*C in parts of The South and Southeast.

So there's still a lot to play for even for the coming few days it seems!

Great uncertainty this morning...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Yes massive uncertainty again . Sadly the ECM has gone crap again this morning but still very warm at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trailing front will pulsate North and South over England and Wales over the next 24-48hrs with a fresher and somewhat showery Westerly flow over the far North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Rather warm in the SE at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to target the UK for it's location over the reliable future, blowing mostly on a West to East trajectory across the UK in various strengths before at the far end of the run it weakens and moves North somewhat.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows very changeable conditions across the UK over the coming weeks. There will be spells of benign and quite dry conditions but some rain from slow moving troughs across the South over the next few days, showers anywhere midweek and a short warm surge of air from the SE towards the weekend will quickly breakdown into thundery rain and a cooler windy spells for all as a deepening depression moves NE over the North. Changeable conditions continue in Week 2 too with some rain at times especially in the North with drier conditions in the South and SW for much of the time. Temperatures then look close to average for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is very similar in the course of events through the first week with the Low shown at the end of the week on the operational shown here too. However the second week if anything is shown to be more changeable looking across the UK for all areas as Low pressure remains the driving force close to the UK with rain at times for all.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days this morning show an almost 50/50 split between unsettled and cloudy westerlies with rain at times to more influence from a ridge across the UK from the SW with dry and bright conditions in comparison.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a glancing blow to the SE for warmth and high humidity at the end of the week as a deepening Low pressure moves NE across the NW of the UK sending rain and thundery rain at that to the SE before fresher conditions affect all at the weekend in Westerly winds and a return to better conditions in the South at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to indicate that relatively weak fronts will remain hung up across Southern Britain for several days in  fairly slack pressure gradients across the UK with a little rain in places before a deepening Low moves NNE across the UK by the weekend with a cold front clearing away all the murk and rain to leave a brighter and fresher weekend for all.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows a similarly slack period with troughs hung up across Southern Britain this week with a lot of cloud and a little rain at times. Then a surge of warm humid air moves NE over the SE in association with a deepening depression moving NE over the NW carrying rain and perhaps thunder to the SE briefly before a NW/SE split returns next week with the best conditions towards the South and SE while Northern and western areas keep SW winds and rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today has it's own version of a depression moving NE across the UK at the end of the week eventually arriving at a similar place to the aforementioned models with best weather then in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today is very similar to UKMO in format and sequence as it too pulls a belt of Low pressure NE across the UK towards the end of this week replacing some warm, humid and thundery conditions over the SE and replacing it with fresher westerly winds for a time. In the latter stages of the run the weather returns to a similar setup to what we have become accustomed too of late with the North and West seeing some rain at times and cooler conditions while the SE in particular see some drier and warmer periods between very occasional interludes of rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last evening shows a Low pressure zone to the North and the likelihood of a weak westerly flow over the UK. troughs would bring occasional rain to the north, sinking further South at times into rather warm and humid air across the South, a pattern very similar to what we have currently in fact.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still no definitive trend detected from this morning's output with all models playing around with rather complex and often slack synoptics.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.1 pts and GFS at 94.6 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 85.3 pts followed by GFS at 81.4 and UKMO at 81.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.0 pts over GFS's 49.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.7 pts to 28.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS There remains little sign of any particularly rapid changes in pattern within the model outputs again this morning. While occasional output show the Southeast of the UK entering heatwave territory at times others show more changeable conditions with the overall patterning of the weather at the moment remaining quite stagnant. This of course doesn't mean the same weather is experienced day to day in any one place but it does mean there will be a lot of benign weather between spells of wet or warm and sunny conditions. The latter will be experienced later this week down towards the SE with a surge of warmth culminating in a thundery trough and returning fresher air East to all over the weekend. Elsewhere the incidence of rain will be much more Atlantic orientated as troughs continue to straddle the UK at times. Their positioning will of course be determinate in where that rain will occur but almost all areas will see some at some point over the coming couple of weeks but probably not much for many. While as mentioned already there will be the chance of some very warm days especially in the South with air of a tropical maritime fetch rather than a continental type it will always feel muggy and humid and coupled with a lot of cloud with the risk of some sharp showers even when troughs aren't bringing their own rain. So looking long term from the charts today we look like being not a million miles away synoptically in two weeks from where we are now in terms of weather so while it might not be high Summer for many things look fairly uneventful over the next few weeks with at least the chance of something to suit most tastes with nothing too dramatic or troublesome on the horizon as far as I can see.

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday July 14th 2015

Only thing that had been missing and well overdue is the HP to be east of us and really like to see Scotland and the North to join the warm nationwide settled. hot weather pattern, I always remember seeing those in the late 80's and 90's heat waves.  I think the HP to the east of us would likely to be in September and that would be too late to bring serious heat.

Very nice and hot GFS 12z first good one in a long time. Can we get a good ECM tonight as well.

All will be revealed soon, fingers crossed!

Well it's not quite as good at this point especially for the NW, but it's still very warm for the South. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Some real heat once agin for the SE. The heat in France is unbelievable consistently over 20c 850s . They must be heading for the hottest month of all time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

...and still the model runs continue to struggle to resolve the extent to which the Atlantic and Asian troughs interact or - preferably - avoid interaction.

In theory, global teleconnections support a relaxation of the jet stream in the vicinity of the UK with a ridge from Europe dividing the two troughs. This is what GFS has finally produced on it's 12z op run, which makes it the most credible of the evening in my eyes... except for the important detail that is timing. I can't be at all sure if the ridge from Europe is being brought along too soon or not.

This brings me on to the ECM op run which like the 00z can't quite seem to manage the trough separation needed. This run would then be fair enough in my eyes if it wasn't for the complete transfer of the Atlantic low across to Scandinavia by day 10. That's totally against the global signal, but strangely enough we see that often from the latter stages of ECM. Just think of some of those winter teases! Of course, to be fair, GFS plays a similar game with us at least as frequently.

About a week ago the models were transferring all the low heights to our east during this coming week, but it hasn't quite turned out that way. The weather seems to have a habit of leaving at least a little bit of low pressure behind in the Atlantic, leaving us with either a drab northwesterly or a kind of slack westerly with all sort of possibilities on the local scale, such as we're seeing this week.

Based on this I'm expecting at least a little something to be left behind somewhere between our SW and our NW for the middle part of next week. ECM days 8-10 can go kick the bucket.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

Nice to see the 20c 850Hpa temperatures greeting Kent again for the third time this year. 

I hope we do see some more decent warmth. So far we've been very unlucky. I am amazed that we had a 36C plus in such  isolation like that.

When you look at what is going on in France and Spain - it is incredible how we've managed to miss out so much.