Yes it's a case of 'will it, won't it' from the usual set of muddly models that we've witnessed lately. Will it cool down from the NW or will it heat up from the SE and will it rain or will it not. Clear as mud. 

Getting vibe's a late July deterioration in the models at the moment...

But on the other hand, this Summer's weather pattern has always been a pretty unsettled one... Yet the south somehow or other always seem's to manage to hold on to good Summer weather.

Southerners have been very, very lucky so far this Summer I think.

Yes but only been very unlucky like today to get any meaningful heat so it becoming a boring nothing to write about summer for here if this continue rest of August.

Indeed Gavin it has and the Midlands hasn't done too bad either, it's once you get to a Manchester that this summer has deteriorated and by the time you get to Glasgow it's been appalling.

I travel to Birmingham and London every week and the differerance in weather further south this summer has been remarkable, the Synoptics have supported a broadly westerly flow which is normal but the south has benefited from the nearby heat on the continent while the north has felt the effects of unusually low SST's over the near North Atlantic. This has resulted in a marked temperature gradient across the UK.

I suspect this will continue into August and it will be interesting to compare summer temperature contrasts between London and Glasgow come 31st August compared to normal.

Andy

Is there a chance for the SST's to warm up quickly or is something to do with the fresh water melt from Greenland glacier or what caused the cold SST's on that area?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Ransst.gif

I see some patch of darker blue area seem to wrestle with the warm zone.  I also notice there no warmth in the Baltic sea despite the heat in the continent failed to make it to low 20's that always occurred every summer, just a few patches of 17-18C temps area.

It hasn't been good here thus far for sure, but it's got some way to go before it gets as bad as 2012, the last really poor summer we had.

The vibes coming from the MetO about August (at least the start of it) sound reasonably promising right now, so let's hope they are onto something there.

Hi folks. Better organized this morning so here's my report. However, there will be no report from me tomorrow either here or on my website but will return with hopefully some better model runs on Sunday morning.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JULY 17TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low pressure area to the NW of the UK will maintain a fresh to strong SW flow across the UK with an occlusion affecting Northern Britain weakening slowly later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures largely near average but possibly warm at times in the SE at first

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains persistent in maintaining the Jet flow crossing East over the UK, quite strongly given the time of year. It tilts more SW to NE and weakens somewhat late next week but shows little sign of moving far away from the UK rejuvenating after a brief lull to trough down across the UK in the outer reaches of this morning's output.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today again illustrates another changeable run with Low pressure eventually making more impression towards Southern Britain as well as the North. The North/South divide remains meantime with showers in the North and strong winds easing while the South sees several days of fresher but largely fine weather. Then next week a flabby area of Low pressure looks likely to develop over the UK as it tracks east giving rain at times for all. Thereafter a mobile ridge/trough pattern in a largely West to East moving pattern looks likely with all areas then seeing fresh Atlantic winds with rain or showers at times as depressions cross by over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is not quite so poor as the operational but paints a smilar picture overall with Westerly winds being maintained with some rain at times for all though the emphasis on this run remains for this to be more prolific over Northern Britain with longer drier spells in the South. The Control Run also shows a stronger build of pressure from the South and SW at the end of the run to affect many places.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days seem to have shown High pressure out to the SW at the 14 day point for what seems ages now and today is no exception with a mix of options showing a ridge from it having a greater or lesser influence to the UK dependant on the axis of the ridge in relation to the proximity of Low pressure to the North in what looks like Westerly winds for all at that point in time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO on the face of it looks quite changeable and unsettled this morning with weakish Low pressure straddling the UK to start next week before it eases East towards midweek and sets up a slack and rather cool NW flow across the UK with some showers for the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a cocktail of troughs likely to affect the UK over the next 5 days giving all areas some rain at times in winds broadly blowing from a West or SW point.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today does it's best in trying to maintain a broadly NW/SE split in the weather for the time being with rain at times for all but most of it still towards the North and West while some warmth remains across the SE early next week. Then later next week the model whips up an almost Autumnal storm as it crosses NE over the UK with wind, rain and poor temperatures as it goes. This then eases away to a more North/South split in conditions with rain at times, chiefly by then back to Northern regions with average temperatures overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows Low pressure over the North of the UK next week, albeit slack  with some rain or showers likely at times with some dry and bright weather too. With winds settling NW later for most if not all areas later it hardly looks overly warm with average temperatures and perhaps the hint of warmth for the SE early in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today although not as dramatic as some of the other output maintains a theme of keeping European warmth away from all but the SE of the UK with rather changeable conditions remaining across the UK with some rain or showers at times, still largely for the North but the South too on occasion and with winds blowing from a position between West and North for much of next week average temperatures look like being maintained at best away from the far SE where to begin with a little warmth and humidity hangs on a while longer.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows the Azores High at home while Low pressure to the North or NE gives us a strong indicator of a Westerly flow with rain at times and average temperatures is the most likely position we will be at in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from the models today is a Westerly flow across the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.0 pts and GFS at 94.2 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.4 pts followed by GFS at 80.8 and UKMO at 80.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.7 pts over GFS's 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.2 pts to 29.0 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS For those of you looking for UK wide warmth under a large anticyclone over the next few weeks you are likely to be disappointed by my report this morning. For nearly all models illustrate broadly Easterly moving Low pressure systems from the Atlantic, across the UK and then on to NW Europe in varying degrees of potency and positioning through the period. The problem remains higher pressure in the wrong place i.e too far South of the UK and more importantly over the Greenland area, not normally a good poition for High pressure to lie as far as the UK goes in Summer. This pulls the Jet Stream further South than is normal for this time of year. In this case it is shown to blow for much of the period right over the top of the UK spawning Low pressure areas and delivering rain at times in the process and bottling any European Summer warmth down towards the Meditteranean rather than Northern France or the UK. However, it's certainly not a case of blanket rainfall and though the differentials in weather between SE and NW seen of late will likely lessen over the period there will still be less rainfall for the SE than elsewhere and while the short bursts of warmth and humidity which have occurred with some regularity recently will likely occur with less frequency through the period it should feel pleasant enough in any sunnier breaks between the rain or shower bands. Looking towards grains of hope for settled warm summer weather in the far reaches of this morning's output I can't see any definitive trend towards any one weather type but what I do know is that pressure needs to fall over Greenland so that pesky Jet flow can flow further North towards Iceland  and allow the Azores High to pull NE into the UK and on this morning's evidence that doesn't reallly look like happening anytime soon so I don't think any noteworthy settled or hot spell is likely across the UK now this side of August.

Next update from 09:00 Saturday July 18th 2015

Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

Here's today's video update:

Mixed Conditions To Start August;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

JMA and CFS both looking mixed, but suspect the south, as has been the case all Summer, won't be as bad as advertised... 

Cor, the GFS is in a rotten mood this afternoon when it comes to the low res end of its output. Certainly not getting that Friday afternoon feeling but it is all in low res stuff anyway, perhaps it might be better tonight after a few pints.

But then again, on the other hand, it is the joys of the UK and it's temperate mid-latitude climate.

Amazed to see Sundays fax chart tonight. We were supposed to be just coming off the back end of a high cell., (Consistently predicted for the last 3 or 4 days or so), now we are entangled in a right old mess of fronts. Come to think of it the whole North Atlantic now looks a mess on Sundays fax. This has resulted in one of the biggest turn arounds at 48 hours notice that I have seen in quite a while.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

Picnic cancelled.

I wouldn't canceled because they been stupid and not reliable like yesterday failed to get hot as the models temp charts had been displaying high 20s.  I would go ahead and look from the windows instead.  I am slowly losing interest to the models due to inaccurately rates was very bad all the time.

I commented earlier in the media thread about this. Yesterday, the BBC forecasts were predicting that much of England and Wales would be dry and bright on Sunday, while Scotland and the far north of England turned wetter as the day went on. That now seems to have flipped completely to things improving in Scotland as the day goes on, while southern parts of England now look more likely to remain cloudy with some rain. LOL!

If forecasts for only 2-3 days ahead are liable to change right now, what does that say about prospects further ahead? The models must be giving even those at the MetO a headache right now! FWIW, I think that anything the models show for beyond the middle of next week is liable to change at short notice.

I would say what the Met Office and other Meteorological offices look at for longer term prospects is trends rather than detailed day by day changes. Short-term forecasts can and do change without the overall trend being questioned.

Sometimes they went overboard with the rain and they are doing it again on Sunday when actually we still under the weak HP and LP over Scotland as they did the same incident last week which it didn't rain here.  It was only yesterday they were showing clear skies on Sunday so I always blame at them for making wrong forecasts and not reading the charts properly.

Yes flipped again this morning, now a nice sunny dry afternoon tomorrow for most of England and Wales - uncertainty at such a short time frame is impressive, no doubt it will change again.

Not really reflected in the Meto text forecasts:

London:

Sunday:
Rain mainly clearing east by late morning, although the south coast may not clear completely. Further rain may then push in from the west through the evening. Feeling muggy. Maximum Temperature 23°C.

Bristol:

Sunday:
After a wet start most parts will turn drier and brighter for a time. However the rain will linger around southern coasts, before spreading across most parts again later on. Maximum Temperature 18°C.

Let's hope that whatever signal the MetO are seeing for the start of August re a change to more settled weather generally remains over the coming days; they have been fairly consistent with this in their medium range forecasts over the past week or so.

It's time there was a proper build of high pressure over the country as a whole. Aside from a few days during the second week of June, there hasn't been a proper Azores anticyclone in place over the country at any time over the past couple of months, and all there seems to have been is mostly short-lived ridges of HP which have only really benefited southern England. Prospects even for there don't look as good for the coming week, if the model output at the moment has it right.

Not sure that has updated yet - latest national BBC forecast says different, but to be honest I don't think they have a proper handle on it yet!

http://www.bbc.com/weather/2643743

MO today not particularly inspiring but GFS deep FI has a good start to August:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

The London ensembles demonstrate nicely how the cooler upper PM air will get this far south.

Cooler and fresher, yes...but T2m will still probably reach 21-23c in sunny spells down here in the SE. 

Updated at 10am. Says the same. Yet more conflicting forecasts then. 

interesting that the rain in South west approaches marching on this way much father and further north than forecast, sun almost obscured by high cloud on south Coast.  Who knows what weather to expect on Sunday, if the met don't have a clue then I guess neither do we? 

I've pretty much thrown the towel in when it comes to taking model output seriously beyond a few days range at the moment.

Next week we're now seeing another low being shown to power straight from west to east with barely any resistance from high pressure. This 'bulldozer' low brings memories of a number of such systems that have appeared in the model output over the past few weeks. The majority have been slowed down nearer the time with a few interesting outcomes. It looks like we'll need a small miracle with this next one though.

I would usually be checking the latest MJO forecasts to see if they're getting a handle on it at all, but they haven't updated since Thursday, which doesn't inspire much confidence in the overall mid-latitude evolution this coming week.

Take a hemispheric view and there's a lot of messy setups taking place out there. My diagnosis - there's little in the way of large-scale forcing to guide the models at the moment, and what they're coming up with is driven largely by SST gradients and any substantial air temperature gradients... such as the one between NW Europe and the N. Atlantic.

I reckon that if the likes of ECM were taking the MJO back into the Pacific, we'd be seeing more in the way of stalling mid-Atlantic lows and ridges building up from Europe. As it is, we have to look to UKMO and JMA for any such signals, unless of course they've changed their tune since Thursday. I think GFS might be wavering somewhere between the two with respect to tropical developments, the MJO nearing Indonesia but turning around at the last minute. Those late-FI improvements may be a reflection of that.

Okay... so here's JMA. The jet stream is titled a little SW-NE but not as much as I'd like to see. Still the best outcome on offer this evening though:

Status quo, anyone? 

Looking at the model output this morning, I'm wondering whether July may end up coming in as another cooler than average CET month despite the very hot start, at least as far as northern areas are concerned.

Did ANYBODY go for a cooler than average month in the CET competition? 

Rather later than usual but here's todays attempt at unravelling the spaghetti.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JULY 19TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Relatively weak troughs of Low pressure will continue to run East across the British Isles on occasion in a moderate to fresh West or SW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures largely near average but possibly warm at times in the SE at first

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow undulating North to South across the UK in association with mostly Low pressure to the North and High to the South. The flow then weakens at the end of the period and becomes ill defined.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the basic pattern of High to the South and Low to the North maintained for much of the period. The High to the South holds influence across the South more in the first week and again late in the period while an interlude of Low pressure to the North brings unsettled and cooler conditions to all districts for a time at the start of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is somewhat different in detail but more or less rings the same bells today as a mostly Westerly based pattern this week keeps the North/South divide going with some rain possible for all but more so in the North. Then after a pressure build across the UK with any rain then restricted to the far SW next weekend the pattern resets with a stronger build of pressure North across many parts of the UK at the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days seem to have shown High pressure out to the SW at the 14 day point for what seems ages now and today is no exception with the pendulum now having swung back towards a greater chance of fine and settled conditions across the UK as a ridge from it lies towards Southern Britain. There is of course around 25% of members who show a much more Atlantic based and unsettled pattern though in among the good runs.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a West and then NW flow across the UK for much of this week, never overly strong and with the lack of any major weather systems across the UK through the period the weather can best be described as benign and mixed with some cloud and showers alternating with dry and bright weatehr with temperatures near or perhaps a shade below average in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning pick up on the finer detail the raw data doesn't show with weak troughs meandering East and NE at times delivering some cloud and light rain or showers with periods of ok conditions in a relatively slack and inactive Westerly flow across the UK especially later in the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows a relatively slack Westerly this week with higher pressure never far away to the South or SW ensuring not too much unsettledness reaches down here. Late in it's run the pattern sharpens and a Low moves across Central parts delivering cool and unsettled weather with rain and showers to all districts to start Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today gives weak High pressure the largest say in conditions across the UK late  in the coming week with several days then when all areas could see some fine and dry if not overly warm weather. The pendulum swings back towards the risk of rain though in a weeks time as an equally weak Low pressure zone moves in off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows a lot of upper cool pools of air around the UK over the coming week to 10 days which holds any chance of summer warmth away from our shores through the period. However, the changeable theme of conditions through this coming week will not be too dramatic across the South but by next weekend and the start of the following week it looks like all areas come under risk of rain and showers, equally in the South as the North with some quite cool air aloft some thunderstorms in daytime convective periods look possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure over Scandinavia with winds from between West and North across the UK with a typical pattern of sunshine and showers in average temperatures at best most likely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from the models maintain a Westerly flow across the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 94.9 pts and GFS at 94.1 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 83.9 pts followed by UKMO at 80.5 and GFS at 80.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.7 pts over GFS's 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.6 pts to 29.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS By missing a days model output I thought I might return this morning with something different to report but alas that seems not to be the case as the current pattern looks to persist for the most relaible part of the periods predictions over the next 5-7 days. That means a series of fronts crossing the UK each with their own brand of rain (often not much down here in the South) and periods of fresher Westerly winds with sunny spells and the odd shower, chiefly in the North. The synoptics that make up this pattern remain more or less in situ in the much less reliable time frame as well on todays output with perhaps a trend to shift things towards even cooler air wafting down over the UK under Low pressure which gradually resides more towards Scandinavia in Week 2 and setting up a NW feed and bottling any remaining European heat way South of our shores later. It has to be noted though that most output doesn't show any particularly nasty Low pressure areas or intense areas of High pressure either over the top of the UK with all in all a quite slack pressure gradient for much of the time across the UK. The resultant conditions at the surface will be extremely difficult to pin down especially locally in this setup but for the most part I think dry conditions should outweight the wet with the SW looking likely to score the best in this regime while the North ends up coolest and most prone to showers or rain. So while nothing dramatic to report today nothing particularly noteworthy in terms of heat and settledness either with little if any liklihood of seeing particularly warm conditions now this side of August.

Next update from 09:00 Monday July 20th 2015