It look like the best correct chart output as they are stable to forecast a good near nationwide weekend before the last week of July on N/S divide then finally everywhere get at last proper settled spell but sadly France intense heat had drained away for good. 

Very diverging outputs as far as Saturday - five days away - is concerned.

GEM is painting a windy and unsettled picture (and GFS isn't that far away as well) . . .

While ECM (and UKMO to a lesser extent) has it much more settled  . . .

Hopefully the waters will be less muddy when I do my Cloud Master forecast tomorrow morning.

Some very high rainfall totals being projected for Friday on the latest GFS

(apologies I don't know how to upload chart)

ECM 12z has the best end to any single ECM run I've seen since the first half of June, with HP looking to build in properly across the UK once next week's low has eventually cleared off into the continent.

Still 9-10 days away so can't be sure of anything yet, but maybe now ECM and GFS are starting to pick up on a change to more settled weather from late next week that the MetO have spoken of in their medium range updates over the past week or so.

Yes James. Quite a rainfest predicted running across the South during the evening and night which should sort some gardens out.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1024.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif

I have no concern about those 2 as both unlikely to happen and would end up on same status as now or halfway house. It now casting due to today weather was different that what shown to be decent warm sunshine day and mid 20s. It just felt autumnal today with strong winds and polluted clouds as it seem the winds failed to clear it like yesterday one.  I go for Ecm for now and ukmo charts.

I hope that is true, I get married on 31st and we're hoping to do it outside. The weather lately has not instilled me with confidence that will happen.

If it is any comfort, the ECM mean out to day 15 shows a general ridge attempting to move back in over NW Europe over the first few days of August with an increase in 850 hPa temps as the trough to our NE weakens and a newly developed one takes residence over the central north Atlantic. A long way off though.

The signs are still there for a nationwide settled spell starting the very end of July. gfs has it a couple of days later

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Welcome relief for the north and even this weekend look very decent everywhere with huge HP covering everywhere.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JULY 21ST 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A WSW flow across the UK will generally persist for the next 24-48hrs delivering scattered showers and bright conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Becoming drier and warmer everywhere later in the period.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow blowing West to East across the South of the UK this week albeit quite lightly. Towards the start of next week it strengthens and if anything troughs further South than the UK for a time before it finally breaks up or shifts North in much lighter conditions by the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today is not dissimilar to yesterdays morning's output in that this weeks slack and benign weather pattern becomes replaced by a deep Low early next week with rain and showers in abundance then as well as some quite cool weather. It then becomes replaced by High pressure from the West, on this run across northern Britain while the South sees the remains of a cut off Low pressure area just to the South possibly delivering some thundery showers in the extreme South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is fairly similar in many respects, certainly in the early to mid run while the end of the period is less clear cut in detail as the High pressure build shown by the operational run at the end of the period being a little more ragged with an eventual pull of it back West out into the Atlantic with some showery rain in the NE on a cool NW flow again.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days still indicate a lot of support for High pressure to be lying close by, most likely just to the West with a lot of fine weather suggested for most areas. As always there is some conflicting charts to this pattern in the shape of Atlantic Low pressure towards the North but only amounting to around 20% of members today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows benign conditions over the weekend as Fridays threat of Low pressure looks restricted to showers in the South before a fine weekend develops with some pleasant sunshine for many. By the start of next week though Low pressure steams in from the West with rain and showers for all in cooler and breezier conditions overall.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show a somewhat showery theme between now and Friday with the impending Low pressure to the SW on that day pulled further South on this morning's run leaving much of the UK unaffected. The weekend then shows a weak High pressure area near the South with fine and dry conditions likely as a result.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows showery Westerly flow with Friday's Low a little more influential to the South than other models suggest with some rain and cool conditions Friday. A quiet and largely dry weekend is then shown under a ridge with next weeks Low further North than other output, this time being most influential to the North where the most wind and rain from this falls while the South sees little. Then all areas become fine, warm and settled later next week as High pressure builds strongly across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows slack Westerly breeze, sunshine and showers for the remainder of this week with Friday's Low amounting to nothing before a ridge gives a decent weekend for many. next week's Low on this run though looks a fairly potent feature given the time of year crossing the UK and delivering rain, showers and cool conditions for all for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM is encouraging longer term again today with High pressure building across the UK late in it's run following a spell of cool and unsettled conditions in West then NW winds next week, all this following the rest of this week's rather benign and slightly changeable conditions..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia with winds from between West and North across the UK with a typical pattern of sunshine and showers in average temperatures at best most likely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a growing trend with cross model support from those models that look aheadthat far that High pressure is likely to build across the UK as we enter August.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.4 pts followed by UKMO at 94.9 pts and GFS at 94.0 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 84.2 pts followed by UKMO at 80.7 and GFS at 80.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.1 pts over GFS's 46.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 33.9 pts to 28.3 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The main theme of this morning's runs are the trend towards a different pattern synoptically showing up across the UK on a UK wide basis from later next week. In the meantime there is still a lot of days to come of indifferent conditions, often benign and quiet with sunny spells and the odd shower but occasionally rather wetter for some. The models have backed away from this Friday's earlier predicted Low pressure with only a glancing blow likely if any across the far South before a decent weekend turns up within rising pressure. It's next week when the interest begins with a deepening Low supported by most output crossing the UK and away to the NE through the early days of next week with a cool NW flow in it's wake giving rise to cool conditions along with sunshine and showers. Thereafter a pattern change is signified as High pressure builds into the UK from the Atlantic, settling over the top of us and bringing the best chance for some considerable time of a nationwide spell of fine and warm weather. My only worry is that the high centre may stay a little too far to the West or SW always maintaining something of a North or NW feed across the UK hence lower temperatures but this is speculation at the moment. Of course at this range there is a lot of water to cross under the bridge anyway before definintive certainties can be applied but the signs are encouraging with good support from ensembles, clusters etc. So while we have a week or so to go with weather as mixed as ever we should all look forward to something much more universally better across the UK from later next week.

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday July 22nd 2015

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Friday as to the track of the low . Always seems to be a problem with lows coming in in the Biscay area . Most times they seem to go through N. France but occasionally give a very wet cool day for the south.

Yes I agree the weekend was a bit of a dogs dinner forecast wise but to be fair it's all because there is no one feature governing the weather at the moment with all sorts of weather going on around the UK at the same time and within these summer relatively slack pressure zones and gradients a slight change in directional movement and speed of any weak front or depression can quickly throw a forecast well off the mark. If next weeks deeper Low comes into the UK next week as shown forecasting for those days will be much more accurate as a pattern of rain followed by showers is a systematic pattern for all parts under such an event. I expect more difficult forecasting up to and including the weekend as pressure remains or indeed becomes even more slack across the UK and remains so for some time yet.

The most encouraging aspect of the model output this morning, aside from the projected build in pressure from later next week, is the falling of heights over Greenland. The persistence of HP there as we've seen over the past 4 weeks or so is never good news at this time of year, and has IMO been a big factor in the notable NW/SE divide we've seen since just after mid-June. While the pattern has not been the exact same as the dreadful summer of 2012, what it has served to do is cause LP system to track further south than normal on a mostly SW-NE trajectory, causing them to dump most of their rain over Scotland & NW England while southern/south-east England has had a rather better time of it. If the models have later next week right, it looks like we may finally break out of this pattern around that time.

Yes sooner than later it got to change and even so I am living in the SE it still no fun having a split type weather as it really tedious and boring compare to the nationwide settled spells as it give out prolonged settled periods than 1 day wonder.   I hope the MET will be right and deserved a credit for late July and early August nationwide HP.  We overdue for one and surely it got to happen at some point. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

Should we worry about the current SST's?  It look very cool over the Baltic instead of low 20's that reached every summer it around mid teens and including to our coasts and part of NW France with little pocket of 17C toward Norfolk. We should be looking at 17-18C by now around here. I am surprised the heat in France didn't warm the sea temps up over NW France and the channel except areas between France and Spain corners 

Let's hope the met can get grip & a clear idea of what is happening soon.  

Hi all,

Have done an update for August to October from the JMA model

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Signs of high pressure for August with this one.

Sounds good! Not before time either, especially for those of us in the north of the UK.

Not liking the looks of the 12zs tonight as instead of expanding the influence of High pressure next week they appear to be watering it down somewhat. Could be a blip-I'll wait until the 00zs before passing further judgement.

Generally speaking the signal is emerging now for the much awaited recovery to a more sustained settled spell to arrive during the first week of August as opposed to the final week of July such as was originally expected by many.

Trouble is, the models often change the tracks too quickly, with complications tending to delay things by a few days at least. Even so, the prospects for a fine spell in August are looking good at this point in time. It's also worth noting how easily the European heat makes a comeback on some runs.

Before then, Friday's potential 'boundary deluge' on the NW flank of a low crossing the likes of France needs watching carefully, as it looks like there will be plenty of moisture to be wrung out of the atmosphere.

I'm also willing Sunday's Atlantic approach to be delayed enough to allow for a decent sort of day, as it's my Mum's Birthday 

I've said it before and I'll say it again - I can hardly believe how the final week of the month is looking to pan out. The signal had for so long been for a westerly middle-third followed by a resurgence of heat from the continent. We really do have a long way to go when it comes to looking more than 10 days ahead.

The extent of the unsettled interlude for the south from next Monday to Thursday will probably get weakened with time.

Meantime, looking forward to 2 more decent days before possible washout Friday.

I think it would be for the best if any resurgence of heat from the continent occurred only once a more general and hopefully long-lasting settled spell comes along, assuming (hopefully!) one does. If temps were to suddenly shoot up again in parts of the country, mostly in the south, while LP is still mostly in control of the weather, all that would likely happen would be a repeat of what we saw three weeks ago with a mini-heatwave quickly breaking down into a thundery outbreak of sorts.

The brief hot blast that occurred at the start of this month never at any time look likely to develop into a more meaningful settled spell which all or most of the UK was going to benefit from. IIRC, in the days leading up to it, the models always favoured a return to LP systems from the atlantic with the high over the continent gradually being pushed back east. It would have been good if that high could have won the battle with the atlantic at that time as, had that happened, July would likely have panned out rather differently to how it has thus far, at least as far as northern areas are concerned.

Mean 850 temp anomaly over the 10 period on tonight's ECM. Actually quite a dry run for many with only eastern Scotland seeing a significant excess over the period.

It also look very cool and dry but hopefully daytime temps to reach low 20's as it been done before at 5C uppers if conditions are right.  ECM doesn't show any LP on Friday and GFS had watered it down and should be eliminated in the next few runs.  UKMO also doesn't show anything for Froday too.