I can't help but wonder that if there where weather gods that perhaps this summer is coming at a cost for last winter. Those of Scotland , northwest, and Northern England had plenty of snow events last winter complete with ice days, whilst us in the southeast ended up with squibs.. Cool but not cold, and often wet. 

How long can this sharp north/ south divide go on? I have never known such an ongoing difference between north and south.

Today is a classic example of the UK weather this summer, in Carlisle it's 13c, cloudy with heavy showers and winds gusting 35mph.

Just 300 miles away in London it's 25c with light winds and sunny spells. I know the weather is on average better in London but not by this magnitude, the mid July average in Carlisle is 19.7c in London about 23.2c a difference of just 3.5c.

This is turning into the most 'unequal' summer on record and looking at the models this is likely to continue.

Andy

Hmmm, I would not call winter 2014/15 snowy up north, we only had one major snowfall and several light ones that combined to cover the ground on 13 mornings which is close to the winter median number.

Hardly a northern mini Ice Age!

Andy

There appears to be a trend for High Pressure to retrogress back towards its summer resident home in the Azores from Day 5. Scandinavia has had a particularly cool and unsettled summer this year with warmth nearly completely absent. Sadly it looks as though the western siberian trough that has been in situ for a while responsible for the poor Scandinavian summer will retrogress SW'wards too somewhat introducing an even cooler and more unsettled regime to more north-eastern parts of the UK.

This will finish Richardabdn off if it verifies. 

It seems the bad luck intends to spread rather than diminish. In East Anglia and the South its been a passable summer so far - but knowing what is going on across the Channel just adds to the annoyance. From what I've heard up north its been a bad summer to all intents and purposes.

Lot of dry weather around in the latest runs but what notice me is the intense heat in France slowly draining away as it come to August due to lowering sunshine levels so UK had may had lost a good chance of very high temps so any warm to hot spell do occur likely around 28-30C in August unless if models do a U-turn to bring in the intense heat.  Temps wise nothing to write about at low 20's to mid 20's thorough out the runs.

I've given up on Augusts in this country to be honest. I genuinely cannot remember an anticyclonic one for many years ? We camped in Cornwall in August for 13 years (dictated by school summer holiday). Last year was the final straw. Apart from 2011 most years have been very disappointing.

We've booked up for an all inclusive in Ibiza this year from 3-17th August. No gambling with the weather this year for our hard earned summer holiday. 

The summer so far in our part of the world has been outstanding. Plenty of warm sunny weather to be had. My grass died a while ago and is only recently showing signs of life. Today was gloriously warm, not sure what the forecast was but its felt hot in the sunshine. Humidity still seems to be hanging on despite the blustery wind. More of the same for the foreseeable future according to the latest models.

Did you go camping in August 2012 and 2013? They weren't very anticyclonic, but were warmer than average. August 2013 was about as warm as July 2014 and I remember it being consistently warm, occasionally very warm. It was rather thundery though so less high pressure and settled, more hazy and unstable.

Either way, Cornwall is quite wet so you might want to consider going camping somewhere else. 

 Met O 144 goes for a transient HP cell dominating next Saturday:

August 2012 was a disaster. We came home after day 10 of our 14 day break after getting flooded out and receiving tent damage from severe gales around the 16th from memory. 2013 admittedly was one of the better years. Consistently warm with sunshine on the coast but frequent days with heavy thundery showers a couple of miles inland most days. .

We will camp again in the future but somewhere much closer to home in the SE. 

We do at least have the traditional ridge ahead of the next low being modeled for next week now, albeit in different ways by different models.

This is largely down to the low being slowed down a bit, and ECM even has a go at sharpening the trough for a moment before the westerly momentum resumes with vigour.

I still believe that another MJO pulse in the Central/Western Pacific is one of our best hopes for breaking free of the pattern, as the mid-latitude forcing from that would encourage the lows to stall out to our W or NW with ridges crossing the UK from the SW.

The chances of such an event are high thanks to another pulse of warm SSTs starting their journey across the Pacific as part of the still-building El Nino event. The model projections have finally updated today, and it looks like UKMO and JMA may be starting to smell the coffee, with a more traditional cycling of the MJO rather than the unusual about-facing that was being shown a few days ago:

In short, we want to see the models taking the MJO toward somewhere within or close to phase 6 (or 7 could suffice but that's more risky), ideally making it some way away from the central circle (within which the MJO is pretty much inactive), though I should think not as far as it did at the start of July (that massive, record breaking peak in phase 7) as that seemed to result in the mid-latitude response being very intense but also very brief.

ECM has backed off rebuilding the MJO in the Indian Ocean which is a relief. That goes some way to explaining the recent movement of the model away from developing notable mid-Atlantic ridges in the 7-10 day range.

GFS... seems to be off one one, and the impacts of that start relatively soon in the output so I'm not feeling inclined to trust what the model is predicting beyond 3 or 4 days range this evening. Hopefully JMA and UKMO are leading the way at this point in time.

In FI but the ECM has a warm southerly next Sunday, before a deep low engulfs the UK in deeper FI...

I haven't travel out in August for many many years since my time of living in Cyprus in the past due to expensive tickets and crowded time of the year.  It been 12 years since we had a decent August so let hope this one coming up will break the long wait. By next week we should see the clearer picture how early August panning out from the models.  

The north would welcome that chart regardless how long it reside but a well break from the cold and wet weather there.  Also haven't see this national wide HP since June.  I got a week off next week and it look decent enough and no northern blocking setup with wash out days.

Jetstream continuing to blow through U.K and hints of more general rain for the south a week ahead.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JULY 20TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Relatively weak troughs of Low pressure will move NE across the UK today and tonight followed by a somewhat showery and fresher WSW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures largely near average but possibly warm at times in the SE at first and cool in the NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow blowing West to East across the South of the UK this week. Towards the start of next week it strengthens in situ for several days before the flow finally weakens and shifts North towards a more normal location and strength near Iceland at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the UK gradually entering quite a slack pattern synoptically across the UK as this week progresses. With no one pressure feature having direct control the usual mix of plenty of dry weather spaced with scattered showers seems likely especially over Northern and Eastern areas in a light NW drift. Then next week sees a more direct attack from the Atlantic with rain and showers and cool conditions before right at the end of the period a pattern change evolves as High pressure builds across the UK with sunny and warm conditions for all then with the risk of a thundery shower in the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run is quite supportive of the operational run apart from the most desirable end part of the output where it has less extent to the build of High pressure at the end of the run, restricting it to Southern Britain while the North maintain Westerly breezes and occasional rain.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters at 14 days show a roughly 60/40 split in preference of a High pressure ridge likely to lie across the UK from the Azores in 14 days time. The 40% show more disturbed weather for many with Low pressure in some shape or form to the North of the UK with Westerly winds and rain at times for all.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure to the North with a Westerly flow across the UK weakening as pressure becomes slack later in the week with a mix of sunshine and scattered showers. This looks maintained over the weekend as winds shift Northerly for a time before a weak High pressure dissolves most showers by Sunday away from the far East with a lot of dry and fine weather for all by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning illustrate well the complexities of the rather slack atmosphere likely to develop across the UK later this week. Light winds, sunny spells and ccasional showers look likely as weak troughs meander about around the UK by then with temperatures never straying far from average overall.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows relatively slack pressure later this week with some showers in a Westerly flow slowly veering towards the North. Then following a ridge next weekend the model shows quite a nasty area of Low pressure crossing the UK from the West early next week with wind and rain for all but at least it dangles a carrot at the end of it's run of High pressure building in strongly from off the Atlantic at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a deeper Low pressure moving NE across the UK rather earlier than the other models. In fact as early as this coming weekend it looks like being breezy and cool with rain at times as that Low trundles NE across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning follows the main stream of the output with it's somewhat showery scenario through the working days of this week attached to Low pressure to the North and NE. Pressure builds at the weekend with fair weather for many for a time before next week turns cooler and breezy as Low pressure deepens as it moves into and out of Scotland towards Scandinavia at the start of next week with cool NW wind and showers following a band of rain SE to all areas. Pressure is then shown to build strongly across the North Atlantic at Day 10 perhaps indicative of an improvement at least in the West late in the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure over Scandinavia with winds from between West and North across the UK with a typical pattern of sunshine and showers in average temperatures at best most likely by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main trend from the models maintain a slack Westerly flow across the UK before this veers to a stronger and cooler NW flow later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.5 pts followed by UKMO at 94.9 pts and GFS at 94.1 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 83.9 pts followed by UKMO at 80.5 and GFS at 80.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 53.7 pts over GFS's 48.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 34.6 pts to 29.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Changes in weather patterning across the UK over the coming week or so are slow so one can only expect only day to day subtle changes in the weather through this coming week. Though details due to the slack nature of the pressure gradients across the UK later this week are going to be hard to pin down no particularly unpleasant weather looks likely with showers the order of most days for most folks. These should be well scattered but heavy and focused more towards the North and East through the afternoons but could occur almost anyhere as any weak troughs push through in the flow. This means of course all areas should see plenty of fine weather with sunshine too and in the SE it will stay warm for a few more days yet while the North and West in particular continue to see cooler conditions than elsewhere. We then have to wait until next weekend to see a shift towards generally dry weather as a weak High pressure area crosses the UK though high temperatures with this feature are unlikely especially by night when it could be quite cool for some Northern areas. The main change then looks to focus on Week 2 with a lot of cross model support for a more active Low pressure to move NE across the UK with wind and rain for all. As the Low then moves towards the NE and perhaps deepens further a cool NW, showery flow looks like feeding down across all areas. This signifies a pressure rise across the Atlantic by midweek of Week 2 which could spell a pattern shift towards High pressure across the UK towards the turn of the month providing the North or NW flow on the back of next weeks depression isn't stubborn enough to hold on which is unfortunately hinted at on ECM's day 10 chart. So in a nutshell still no guaranteed improvements in the models this morning but at least there is some interest shown in the extended output that a shift away from this North/South divide of late is possible as we enter August with all areas possibly moving towards fine, settled and hopefully summery temperatures to start the new month as High pressure built over the Atlantic next week edges over the UK from the West.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday July 21st 2015

This low in the Atlantic on day 6 catches my eye. The models are generally keen on it powering due east while becoming a quite intense feature, which would be highly unusual for the time of year. 

UKMO has something more typical, as the low 'peaks' much earlier on, most likely due to the jet stream not being quite as strong. The resulting trough/ridge configuration looks a lot better for sustaining high pressure across the UK for more than just a day or so.

I'm glad that the notable northerlies are all outside a week's range this morning. It seems to me that the Atlantic low has already been delayed a bit since yesterday morning.

Longer term, an interesting reminder from GFS about just how quickly NW Europe can heat up at the moment due to the unusually high SSTs across the western Med. and many northern reaches of the subtropical Atlantic. Having relaxed under temperatures all the way down near the low 20's, N. France finds itself rocketing up to 40*C again by day 16.

In effect, we have about three weeks to go within which a push of hot air from NW Europe could lead to sensational temperatures in the UK. The clock is ticking...

Even like today charts for mid 20's is not happening and stuck at 20C at noon time so that show all the models even today charts had been very wrong so it hard to know what will happen tomorrow?  Next weekend? Following week? My gut instinct this weekend would be a decent one with nationwide HP which in opposite to last weekend when the models was showing this but did a u-turn on Friday.  I think the super upgrade on the models had gone worse and cannot predict the next day pattern.

though 20C at near 90% humidty doesn't feel all that bad despite the cloud & occasional drizzle. And as was mentioned by the BBC any breaks in the cloud could I imagine see temps shoot up into mid 20's fairly quickly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The Met/o 12z looks settled for Sunday before low pressure pushes in for next week.