It's very unusual to see East Anglia getting the lion's share of ppn on these accumulation charts, though still doubts about the focus of the deluge.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015072400/36-777UK.GIF?24-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015072400/nmm_uk1-25-36-0.png?24-07

50 to 60mm IMBY according to NMM, though I'll be amazed if this verifies.

Classic convergence of air masses over s/e England expecting a huge amount of rain here.

Hi all,

Here today's video update;

Today's Rain + August Look-Ahead;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Quite a long one due to the developing situation today.... August looking a bit better compared to now... But not that great (and certainly not very warm)

Not according to their update today. While they aren't saying anything about any heatwaves, as far as I can tell they do still seem to think that high pressure will hold more sway across the country than has been the case recently, albeit with the risk of occasional unsettled spells.

Dry, settled, and pleasantly warm will do for me now. I've long since given up caring about any heatwaves this year!

Not for the first time in recent weeks, ECM and GFS are at odds with each other for within 10 days ahead. ECM, which this morning had gone for at least a temporary build of pressure over the UK in about a week's time, now seems to want to keep us in a rather slack, unstable pattern with a low moving NE from the south at the end of the run. It may be the most reliable model in general terms, but for a lot of the time in recent weeks it has IMO had the same mare of a time that the other models have had in trying to pin down details for a few days ahead.

Perhaps once we get the LP forecast for early next week out of the way, we'll have a better idea of where we are headed later next week and beyond. I get the feeling that the behaviour of that low and it's immediate aftermath are causing some issues for the models right now.

ECM is a bully tonight - its found a way to negate the rise in pressure from the southwest.

Good job it stands alone, with GFS and JMA still giving us some hope, though the former is keen to break things down again before too long. The 'cool north of warm' pattern in the Atlantic continues to give the jet an unusual ability to flatten our ridges of high pressure.

Okay... so the outlook is pretty bleak right now.

This impact of Greenland ice melt combined with countless Arctic outbreaks in the middle of the North Atlantic is something that the longer-range models seem to have been unable to account for properly.

I'm not feeling to hopeful about August to be honest - the Met Office have put out some encouraging longer range outlooks, but I'm not seeing much evidence to suggest that their own long range model accounts for the SST situation all that well either;

I remember reading 16-30 day outlooks that spoke of much fine weather in July, often warm or very warm in the south (please correct me if I'm wrong!) - though to be fair they soon added references to a cooler, more changeable NW so they probably weren't all that far out with the broad-scale setup. It's just that the ridges weren't able to build (anywhere near?) as strongly as anticipated.

We need to hope that something mixes out that North Atlantic cold pool (cold being relative to the LTA) before summer 2016, as it seems to have been a real thorn in our side this season. As it is, I fear it may lead to a dangerously strong jet stream at times this autumn.

If you like summer weather don't look at this mornings models! 

MetO is poor and GFS brings in another dartboard low next weekend which is worse than the one this weekend, the shallow high between the two will be cool and cloudy.

andy

Not that bad. Disagree. Met O then settles things down nicely.  There is little point taking output beyond 6 days seriously as this summer has amply demonstrated.  Here is the Met O at the edge of FI, whereby the high from days 4 and 5 has weakened.

It doesn't look good does it ?

After a disappointing week with frequent bouts of rain or showers and cool afternoon temperatures it looks as though there is unusually good agreement at such long range (Day 9) for a very deep autumnal looking low pressure area close to the UK.

It will be interesting to see ECM's take on things but here is the GFS version at 216 hours

and here is the GEM

12 years now since 2003 and prior to that we often had good Augusts in the first 2-3 weeks then often wash out bank holidays weekends. September had been a proper summery month that last between 3-4 weeks of prolonged warmth and settled spell.  As usual due to severe flip flop on the models GFS put the dartboard LP forming from no where right on top of us so it likely both severe outlier as it not likely to happen in early August.  UKMO look good with prolonged settled spell after this Monday LP exit easily.  Surely whatever the wrong models out put we hope for a better August this year and good the Met sticking to the gun for prolonged warm settled spell which UKMO showing this morning.

Thankfully I am glad it in the FI run so it 100% unlikely to happen and same to Mega HP at that range never came off as well.

Anyone would think the reason Steve is posting FI charts like that is because he's off to the Med on holiday

Never ! .

Here's a promising chart for 1 August:

Yes he had enough of washout Cornwall trips in recent Augusts so good for him.  This unwelcome northern blocking has been running from 2007 to 2015 now.  There was no such northern blocking as frequency or prolonged prior to that, only lasted for a week or 2 at the max but not several weeks to few months duration.  

Surely northern blocking should be giving us settled spells as southern blocking does?  When the Jet stream go further north we still get unsettled spell anyway as it never lasted weeks or months of dry, warm and sunny.

Also why Greenland can hold the HP for few to several months non-stop when Azores cannot compete that? Something not right to keep it there too long as it never last long in the UK or Europe. 

Apparantly part of the reason is the melting of the Greenland ice cap creating a frigid Northern North Atlantic and a steep thermal gradient with the overwarm water around the Azores.  I however,  fail to see the connection between SSTs, though, and what is going on at 30,000 feet up with regards to the jet stream directly above it? 

A particularly grim ECM run this morning.

It showing 12z runs and no update on 00z yet so not working I think.

I wish I hadn't looked, its horrendous 

After a weak transitory ridge where it is possible that temperatures may briefly recover to the low 20's in the south it looks as though cyclogenesis towards Greenland will throw a nasty low pressure system towards the UK on Monday 3rd August on a jet profile orientated more WNW to ESE. 

The origin of the low will have engaged a considerable amount of cool air off the Greenland plateau.