winter is over! 

There won't be one but my gut feeling is Autumn 1992 all the way type which is very boring.  Indian summer to winter like 1995 was the best one with very short Autumn time.   It only next week the best one and would be the last proper warm one unless models back track the zonal pattern and keep it HP all the way.  Scandi HP can be hard to shift so models always under estimate the strength so hope they would change it as it too early for Autumnal weather as we already had it almost all August so far.

GFS and ECM 12z fi looking very unsettled tonight as the high comes under pressure.

Well congrats to idot for being the first to say winter is over some 3 months in advance of the start of actual winter! That's a record.

Eh!! 

Idot was taking the p out of Jires who had basically just said winter was over, hence Idot saying this whilst quoting Jires.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 4TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool North or NW flow will persist between Low pressure to the East. A weak cold front will move South across the UK tonight followed by High pressure edging into northern Britain from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of more unsettled weather retuns later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow situated running South ver the North Sea over the coming days, weakening and moving away East to leave the UK away from the main flow to the NW.The trend is then for the flow to slip back South over the Atlantic and eventually towards the UK in the second half of the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the cool Northerly flow being cut off later this wekend by High pressure moving into the UK from the West. The trend is then for the High to move away to the NE next week with an East or SE warmer flow developing before further on still Atlantic Low pressure becomes steadily more influential, first in the West and NW then to all areas as the remains of an ex tropical storm come into the mix late in Week 2.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning closely replicates that of the operational throughout with the next week seeing a lot of dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather as an Easterly flow develops. The shift towards more changeable conditions is slower on this run particularly for the South and East where it would stay dry into the start of the second week before Atlantic wind and rain spreads East across all areas.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a much more unsettled look with almost total support for Low pressure to be the dominant role player in the weather over the UK in 14 days, most likely positioned to the North or NW.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving gently east across the UK later in the weekend and the start of next week. A period of fine if still rather cloudy conditions look likely with a trough affecting the NW by the middle of next week with some rain while the South and East stay largely dry and less cool than of late.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in too over the weekend. It also shows a cold front wavering Southward early in the weekend with some rain for a time. As the High moves in to start next week we could be chasing rather large amounts of cloud rounding the Northern flank of the High and down over the UK for a while.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the east over the next 4-5 days. The weather will stay largely dry from tomorrow with some sunshine but quite large cloud amounts at time. Then through the early days of next week the NW will become more unsettled with some rain while the South and East stay fine and dry for a while longer. However, things turn very unsettled and windy with gales for all over next weekend as a very deep Autumnal Low becomes slow moving across the UK with heavy rain, showers and strong winds likely for all at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure too moving East across the UK and on into Europe through the next 4-5 days. This then forms a block to the East with winds between East and South for the UK, warming things up and while mostly dry still fronts to the West will be perilously close to Western areas by the end of the period next Friday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. With the High slightly further North than other output the eventual resting place over Scandinavia makes for a better resistance against Low pressure from off the Atlantic keeping things fine and dry for many away from the NW throughout next week aided by a strong Azores High too. Then at the end of the run the Azores High collapses and makes way for Atlantic Low pressure to enter the UK from the West with rain and showers spreading to all areas by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night replicates the raw data quite well this morning as by Day 10 after a period of quiet anticyclonic conditions High pressure moves away to the East with Low pressure moving East into the UK from off the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models have maintained their theme of moving High pressure across the UK late in the weekend and start to next week. Thereafter models continue to vary in the way that any breakdown in conditions occur and to what extent.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM nudging ahead of UKMO at 96.1 pts to 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.1 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.6 pts followed by ECM at 85.9 and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.9 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.3 pts to 35.4 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Changes in the outputs are slow again today and all focus on the way they handle any breakdown of the High pressure as it exits the UK next week to the East. There are no changes in the short term and all outputs remain rock solid in predicting High pressure crossing the UK over the coming days and cutting off this cool North flow but probably disappointingly for many maintaining a lot of cloud over the UK and temperatures suppressed as a result. By next week the High should be to the East and as winds settle East or SE things should finally warm up with some warm sunshine for most but still chilly and perhaps misty nights. Then the divergences between the models become all too apparent with a mixture of a maintained generally fine and dry period almost to Day 10 from the likes of ECM at one extreme and a complete diversion into stormy Autumn from GEM by next weekend. Whilst feasible and partly due to the incursion of some tropical air left over from tropical storms over the Western Atlantic the GEM version of such a deep Low over the UK next weekend is probably overcooked and will hopefully be removed or displaced by the next run. The more likely option in my book is something along the lines of ECM where the High moves to the East or NE but maintains a link to an Azores High keeping fine and dry and hopefully warmer than of late conditions across the South and East for much of next week and while a breakdown to more Atlantic based Low pressure is probably favoured thereon it remains nothing of a guarantee as at that range and with tropical storms over the Western Atlantic impossible to predict in their movements the complete opposite may transpire. So what I am suggesting this morning is a lot of uncertainty from the middle of next week with all models likely to change at short notice at the midweek next week range onward. Changes run to run could be quite diverse too as early Autumn synoptics and the increasing differences between a cooling Arctic and the still Summery warmth of the tropics and continent still exist possibly promoting some more potent Low and High pressure areas where the two opposing air masses meet. Having said that GEM aside there is nothing alarmist from a bad weather point of view shown over the next few weeks at present.

Next update from 09:00 Saturday Sep 5th 2015

FYI the GEFS upgrade is scheduled for October 14th. Key changes include:

1) Incorporation of the new GFS model
2) Horizontal res from 55km to 33km <192 hours, 70km to 55km out to 384
3) Vertical res 42 levels to 64 levels

A new 0.5deg dataset stepped at 3 hour intervals out to 192 hours will be available. Many new variables will be added to the 1 deg datasets.

WRT TWO I've not yet decided what changes to make. The improvements to the model should mean an incremental improvement in the GEFS verification stats. As far as I'm aware it won't be running out to 768 which is what I think a lot of private agencies would like to see.

Cheers for the info Brian, perfect timing for the start of the silly season 

Will this improve it after a very poor performing this summer?  It been very wrong constantly when they kept showing HP in a week time and then kept back tracking,  It doesn't mean they are correct on the day with LP around.  They are fully wrong full stop if they start back tracking and some cases they had been very wrong on the same day with high uppers for high 20's or low 30's but we got mid-teen maxes and rain. With today technology they should had been showing LP in a week time so with upgrade would make it more worse or better?

Not looking forward to the upgrade if this will be a more wronger charts coming up. 

Dry and importantly increasingly warm for the next week or so. Great stuff after the recent cool and wet weather. 

Thing is would they maintain it?  Good thing they under estimate the strong Scandi HP as they fought back to keep us nice and warm into next weekend and not unsettled with LP around.  Far too early for Autumnal weather and we haven't had anything real summery that can last a week since June here.  Hopefully more runs to see extended settled weather on the week 2 charts as they did a while ago.  

If it only lasts a week Jiries I will happily take that. There is good enough support to suggest it will and that's good enough with me. 

Yes and with the rain spikes had been push forward to mid month is a good thing as opposite to wet spike that kept cropping up in short term and longer term dryness kept pushing forward.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY SEP 5TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak cold front will clear South out of Southern England this morning followed by an area of High pressure edging East into the West of the UK tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled from the weekend with a lot of fine and dry weather at least for a time for many next week before the chance of more unsettled weather retuns later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridging around the UK as High pressure edges across the UK from the West. Thereafter the flow gradually strengthens first over the Atlantic and then over and around the UK as we move through the second week of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout the next week as it moves gently East across the UK over the coming days and then East into northern Europe maintaining a ridge back across the UK. Fine, dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather is likely as winds shift towards the SE later next week. Pressure will gently fall and late next weekend and the following week shows a very unsettled and windy phase under deep Atlantic Low pressure before High pressure is shown to regain control right a the end of the period positioned to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning follows the operational throughout the first week with High pressure moving East across and away East out of the UK next week. The weather stays set fair and somewhat warmer with time with some sunshine and an increasing Southerly breeze next week. Then the model run shows a more extensive and prolonged unsettled spell from late next weekend lasting until and probably the end of the run with rain at times and a fresh to strong SW wind, heaviest rain always towards the NW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show a lot of Low pressure around the UK in two weeks. There is a fairly even split of positioning this to the West, SW or over the UK with cyclonic winds as a result. 30% of members show the SE escaping the worst of the rain with Low pressure far enough to the West to restrict the worst conditions away from the SE.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure crossing the UK in the coming days and away to the NE setting up a large blocking High over Scandinavia. Fine weather will be the result of this with sunny spells and an increasing SE breeze towards midweek when pressure is shown to be falling to the West and SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure moving in over the North of the UK and away to the NE by midweek. Fine weather is likely as a result with winds increasing towards midweek from the South or SE.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. The weather will stay largely dry with some sunshine and light winds until midweek when the High has crossed East into Europe setting up a warmer Southerly flow. Troughs are ganging up to the West and finally make it across the UK next weekend with some rain setting up a more Westerly air type with Low pressure near the North with troughs crossing East delivering wind and rain or showers at times to all in 10 days time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the transit of a High East across the UK and off east into Europe next week with fine and dry weather for all over the next 4-5 days at least. It then shows a change towards more unsettled conditions a little sooner than the above models with rain reaching the West later Thursday and Friday and setting up an unsettled and cooler weekend with some rain as Low pressure edges across Southern areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West towards the end of the weekend displacing the cool Northerly with calm and fine conditions. With the High slightly further North than other output towards Scandinavia before taking it away into Russia towards the end of next week by which time. A lot of fine and dry weather next week will be displaced towards next weekend by more unsettled conditions edging in from the West and South with some thundery rain possible for a time before the Atlantic takes control towards Day 10 with Low pressure winding up near western Britain with rain at times for all by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW with a trough down across the UK meaning most members indicate a shift back towards more unsettled and breezy SW winds likely across the UK by day 10

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 86.1 pts followed by ECM at 85.7 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 61.0 pts over GFS's 53.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 41.2 pts to 35.2 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS The loss of the cool Northerly that has afflicted the UK of late is almost upon us as all models continue to show High pressure crossing East over Britain and then away to the East and NE over the next 5-6 days. The net result will be for somewhat warmer conditions to eventually develop as we lose the Northerly drift and trade it for a Southerly one by the middle of next week. Until then though days will feel warmer but with little wind night's will still be very chilly with the introduction of some valley mists and fogs as well as a touch of frost is possible as the light winds under the High cross over. Then we still run the gauntlet of what happens to the weather over the UK as the High moves away to the East. Not unlike yesterday there is some output that show a lot of resistance from the High blocking Atlantic fronts from making too much inroad into the UK and as a result any unsettled conditions with rain may well be restricted to Western regions only until late next weekend. It then looks as though the High will finally give ground completely and we then get a variety of charts that show very unsettled and possibly windy conditions with rain at times through week 2. I think the models paint a fairly clear message this morning and although the specifics and detail of what happens from later next week remains questionable the message from all output is clear to see. So in a nutshell we have a week or so of decent enough weather with fine, dry, bright and eventually warmer conditions for all before a slow breakdown from the South or West seems likely next weekend leading into a more unsettled spell as we move into mid September for all areas so let's enjoy the fine weather that's to come in the next week while we can.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 6th 2015

thanks for your output gibby always a joy to read, looking forward to a nice settled warmer spell next week, but looking more forward to this coming winter,

It could warm up somewhat if we get some sunshine next week but cloud amounts could be a problem, as a result keeping temps down.

Hopefully not as the HP move east it never bring clouds in here as continent air are much fresher and cleaner than Atlantic dirty air that always bring clouds with it. 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY SEP 6TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong Anticyclone will move gently East into the UK from the West over the next 24-48hrs with light winds for all as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from nest weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough section to the flow moving East into the UK late next week when the flow strengthens to blow West to East across the UK at the start of the second week. Thereafter until the end of the period the flow is shown to ridge over the North Sea and Eastern Britain and flowing North across Western Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout the next week as it moves gently East across the UK over the coming days and then East into northern Europe maintaining a ridge back across the UK. Fine, dry and eventually somewhat warmer weather is likely as winds shift towards the SE later next week. Pressure will then gently fall and low pressure will take control of the UK weather from later next weekend with rain and showers and cooler and stronger west or SW winds in week 2. Pressure rebuilds to the East later in Week 2 with perhaps a return to drier and warmer weather in the East to end the period while the West stays cloudier and breezier with occasional rain..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run throughout this morning with a decline in conditions from next weekend with rain, strong winds and cooler air engulfing the UK under a deep Atlantic depression to start Week 2. The unsettled and breezy conditions then are shown set to continue for the remainder of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show the majority of members going for cyclonic influence across the UK in two weeks time as Low pressure looks likely to dominate the UK positioned either to the North or NW of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the NE through this week. Quiet settled weather will dominate with a warmer SE breeze developing from midweek. By Friday and more certainly the start of the weekend troughs will be perilously close into the SW and these are shown to enter Southern and Western Britain with some rain by Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show similar sequences to events as the raw data output this morning with a decline in High pressure influenced conditions occurring at the end of the week from the SW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. The weather will stay largely dry with some sunshine and light winds until midweek when the High has crossed East into Europe setting up a warmer South-easterly flow. Troughs are ganging up to the West and finally make it across the UK next weekend with some rain edging NE across the UK and eventually setting up an East/West split with rain at times in the West but still drier weather further East as High pressure remains locked in over Europe and Low well to the West and SW of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a largely fine and settled week to come under High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East from midweek. Changes on this run are slow and next weekend is the point of change when some showery rain crosses NE across the UK followed by a slow change to Atlantic based Westerly winds and Low pressure up to the NW to start the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West and away to the East of the UK by midweek or soon after, This sets up a warmer SE flow with sunny spells and dry weather continuing until troughs edge slowly over from the West or SW next weekend and brings more changeable conditions for Week 2 with Low pressure up to the NW with rain at times for many but probably not much to the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from this morning shows Low pressure just to the NW with a trough down across the UK meaning most members indicate a shift back towards more unsettled and breezy SW winds likely across the UK by day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter though in varying degrees of extent.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9 pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 60.8 pts over GFS's 53.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 42.0 pts to 34.9 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the main theme from the models this morning for the first week of the two week period as it drifts from a position West of Ireland across the UK over the coming days and away to the East and NE by midweek or soon after. The Northerly drift of today should be largely cut off tomorrow with little or no wind until midweek when a SE flow develops. This will have the effect of warming the air temperatures close to the surface as the flow drifts from a warmer continent. Amounts of cloud still look troublesome until this warmer SE breeze sets up sending dry air NW over the UK with largely sunny and warmer conditions to many. From the same time pressure looks to fall from the West and SW by next weekend and rain will reach the SW from as early as next Friday before marching it slowly NE to other areas over next weekend. The general theme from then on is for the Atlantic to regain control but to what extent is unclear again this morning with some output suggesting High pressure may hold to the East or SE making the West and NW most favoured for rain, showers and cooler winds while the South and East looks like they may hold on to some drier and brighter and somewhat warmer weather. However, this is not a guaranteed scenario with this morning's ECM 10 Day Mean Chart indicating Low pressure close enough into the UK to affect all areas with rain at times which isn't as supportive of the better weather theory for the SE as the operational suggests. So uncertainty on the longer term is still a feature of the output this morning but at least in the short term we are guaranteed a working week of fine and dry weather with increasingly warmer conditions if rather breezy weather from midweek. Then from next weekend a spell of more typical early Autumn weather looks likely with rain at times perhaps more focused towards the North and West with some dry spells in between more likely over the South and East. 

Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 7th 2015

Thank you Martin for the output. Nest is feathered for  Autumnal weather next weekend. Just the weather to expect.. Rather rain than the frost...

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 7TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly East across the UK today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough section to the flow moving East into the UK late next week when the flow strengthens to blow West to East across the UK at the start of the second week. Thereafter the pattern becomes variable and ill defined at this range.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK throughout this week. The High will retreat away to the East later in the week with an East or SE flow developing introducing warmer continental air. At the same time pressre will be falling to the South and SW with some thundery rain or showers reaching the South over the weekend. More unsettled conditions are then shown to spread to all areas from the Atlantic at the start of next week. This lasts several days before High pressure builds back across the UK from both the SW and East so that the UK returns to largely dry settled weather at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run through the next week or so with the breakdown from the South and SW next weekend leading on to a spell of windier and more unsettled weather. This run also shows better High pressure based weather returning through Week 2 with High pressure across the UK bringing back fine and warm weather with sunny spells with just a hint of a cool down from the North right at the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are split 65/35% in favour of Atlantic based Westerly winds blowing over the UK at Day 14 with wind and rain at times in average temperatures, the worst of the weather in the North and West. Of the remaining 35% of members the weather looks better under a ridge from the South with 20% showing High pressure across Northern Britain at the same time point.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving steadily East over the UK over the next few days and away to the East late in the week. Pressure falls from the SW and thundery rain reaches the SW on Saturday and spreads further NE so that by Sunday all parts of the South and West will have turned more unsettled.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show similar sequences to events as the raw data output this morning with a decline in High pressure influenced conditions occurring at the end of the week from the SW but with any major rain bearing systems holding off to the West of the UK until the second part of the weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure crossing the UK and away to the East over the next 3-4 days. It then shows Saturday as the day of change as falling pressure and frontal troughs edge their way NE across the UK through the weekend to set up a cooler and windier spell of weather next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all under typically Autumn cyclonic conditions.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows the theme of falling pressure from the SW at the end of the working week with a potentially thundery Low developing near SW Britain at the weekend bringing showers or rain at times North over Britain through the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows the same theme of moving High pressure across the UK from the West and away to the East of the UK by midweek or soon after, This sets up a warmer SE flow with sunny spells and dry weather continuing for a while though with falling pressure Low pressure develops near Ireland on Saturday with some showery rain extending North and slowly East over the UK. The pattern then turns to an Atlantic Westerly then SW'ly as Low pressure returns to it's recent habitat to the NW with rain or showers at times while the South and eventually see rather less of this than elsewhere where it also may become rather warm and humid again towards the end of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong trough near to the NW of the UK with SW winds and rain at times for all the most likely position we are in at Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter though in varying degrees of extent.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.6 pts followed by ECM at 85.0 and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.6 pts over GFS's 52.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 40.6 pts to 34.1 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS We wait all Summer to see one then lo and behold one appears right across the UK in the first week of September. I am talking of course about High pressure which finally has made landfall across Western Britain today and over the coming days will extend Est across the UK and away into Europe later in the week. I can finally stop talking about the cool Northerly flow and instead await the flow of warmer SE winds which will develop for many from midweek bringing dry and clear continental air NW to many with some warm temperatures too for several days towards the end of the week. Then it's all eyes down to the SW or maybe South as pressure will be falling down there later in the week with Low pressure coming into play over the weekend. The first signs of this could be on Friday in the SW with hazy cloud and the risk of a shower while over the weekend all output shows further progress North and East of this change in conditions with showery rain affecting all places by the end of Sunday and setting up an unsettled Westerly flow early next week with teperatures returning to average and winds possibly rather strong at times. Thereafter the jury is split. WE have GFS who show a split within their own camp with 65% of members continuing an unsettled and changeable theme while the other 35% show something rather more settled especially over the South and East while the rest of the model output suggest a return to what has been the pattern all Summer of Low pressure to the NW and rain at times with the emphasis of rain in the NW while the SE could see drier and warmer weather at times. The latter pattern is where I will hang my hat this morning as it looks like the Jet Stream has the tendency to drift back North somewhat next week after a few days of having moved South to the UK at the start of the second week. Still two weeks is a long time in model terms and we have a good 4-5 days of good weather still to come from this current anticyclone before looking into the mist of next weeks more unsettled phase which will probably chop and change within the output many times in the week to come as the pattern upwind becomes clearer as new data becomes available and we get nearer the time. 

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 8th 2015

In the last few days I stop looking at the models and now saw it this morning it still not reliable and rubbish if every model are different showing charts.  No point to look at if they cannot give us the correct outcome. 

Agreed about short supply and this year is a worse year for extreme as we miss out potential heat in summer, now France finished the extreme heat so the air from France coming here this week would not bring heat just available home grown warmth from the sun at low 20's.  Toronto saw 34C yesterday and today Nicosia will see 41C which is near to the 42C record for September.  This put UK in worst position for missing more heat potential this month too but models refused to let it happen for us so I blame at them fully.  

Seem a Autumn 1992 are happening this year so I don't expect temps to be much different by winter while other heat effected countries will get snow no problem.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY SEP 8TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly East across the UK today and slowly away to the NE tomorrow with an ESE flow developing across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed over the Atlantic and ridged well to the North of the UK. The pattern slowly shifts East later this week with the trough moving into the UK this coming weekend and setting up a period of a stronger Jet flow moving East over the Atlantic and near to Southern England or Northern France next week onward.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure controlling the weather over the UK for some time yet as it transfers slowly NE from the UK towards Scandinavia over the coming days.Pressure then gently falls across the UK towards the weekend with some showery troughs edging up across the UK from the SE and SW with rain at times from Saturday. Then a Westerly flow becomes established across the UK under Low pressure to the North and NW making next week windy and changeable with rain at times especially in the North and West. There seems very little change in this period of changeable weather right out to the end of the run with Westerly winds and rain for all at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run through the next week or so with the breakdown from the South and SW next weekend leading on to a spell of windier and more unsettled weather. The run does show a period of drier and less unsettled weather over the South for a time later next week as a ridge moves close by to the South before unsettled and windy weather returns from the West to all areas again before the end of the period under influence of deep low pressure close to the North.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are showing a lot of influence from low pressure to the North or West of the UK in two weeks time with the wettest conditions in the North and West. Comparatively a handful of members suggest more influence from High pressure close to the SE with drier weather for many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure moving away steadily NE later this week as Low pressure develops South of Ireland moving North over the weekend. After several more dry and warm days things deteriorate from the SW from Saturday with rain at times and cooler air spreading NE across all areas by the start of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE too but maintaining a ridge back over the UK until the weekend when Low pressure makes it's move towards the SW with rain moving North and East over Southern and Western Britain before Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows High pressure moving NE away from the UK towards Scandinavia through the remainder of this week with pressure falling across the UK. Things are shown to stay dry until the weekend though when a complex area of Low pressure develops and moves NE along with it's troughs to position themselves across the UK for all of next week with showers or longer spells of rain at times for all areas in cooler conditions too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too looks broadly the same with things deteriorating from the West over the weekend and setting up a UK based Low pressure system which looks like becoming persistent and slow moving through next week with rain and showers for all at times in breezy and cooler conditions than currently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning completes the set with High pressure moving away to the NE through the rest of the week and eventually being replaced by Low pressure over or around the UK for the remainder of the period. Translating this into weather shows that fine weather will continue until the weekend when Saturday looks like the day of change with rain and fresh winds moving NE across all areas to be followed by breezy SW or West winds and rain or showers at times for most if not all of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM and UKMO at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts at 3 days. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.6 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.2 pts over GFS's 52.0 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.6 pts to 34.1 pts from GFS.
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likEly to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other areas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France. 

Next update from 09:00 Wednesday Sep 9th 2015

mmm.. while specifics maybe different from model to model the message is very clear and has been for days now. There was never likely to be any heatwave this week and as far as I'm aware the models never showed one. The breakdown in the weather at the weekend so far has been well handled by all models so far and with such cross model support for the fine weather to breakdown at the weekend I pretty sure it's likely to happen.

With regard to model accuracy and verification all three models show a 95% and above accuracy rate at 3 days, an 83-86% accuracy rate at Day 5, 52-59% at day 8 and a 34-40% success rate at Day 10. Of these UKMO is performing best at Day 5 and has been for a while now with ECM leading the field in the longer terms over GFS. While I accept accuracy falls away markedly as time increases I don't feel there has been that much long term verification discrepancies of the weather patterning of the models over recent times being particularly poor. What has been poor at times is 'nowcasting' made by the forecasters which at times must have been proved embarrassing for them as some days that were supposed to be wet having turned out dry and vice versa. Even this week Sunday was supposed to see a lot of cloud across my area through the day and we had sunshine from dawn to dusk with hardly a cloud in view. This though wasn't due to a model failure per se as more down to human interpretation.   

Quite an autumnal outlook really after a brief warm up just after mid week.

Its turning out to be a different September then what we're been used to over the last few years.