The BBC site mentions the lower than normal temps in the Atlantic adding to the chilly feel, so surely that can only contribute to a colder winter? Whichever direction the wind comes from, even if it's west it's likely to be cooler than normal

Indeed, If the wind comes from the west it will be a colder than usual experience from that direction - but not cold enough for lowland snowfalls, just cold rain, and perhaps a bit more snow on the tops. For memorable snow and frost we need blocking to generate northerlies early in winter and later on, when Europe has had a chance to cool down, easterlies.

 I don't think 'shooting the messenger' will get you the sort of weather you want.

Regarding to accurate rate if was GFS being alone would been very low due to poor modelling as since 1st July the HP over UK at 5-6 days away had kept downgrading it every time and not once come to fruition and worse incident was on a weekend before BH weekend they show 29C max on a Saturday but we got high teens max then GFS kept showing very nice hot BH specially on a Saturday then cooling down to Monday but all decent. only they decided to take this away and left many people caught out with their events ruined.  So at GFS for 3 days is 50-55%, 5 days at 20-25% and 8 days 0-10% because that range between 5 to 8 days kept showing nationwide HP over here that never came off.   Here we go again the stupid model are showing nice warm HP from France coming in next weekend so bug off as I don't trust it will come off.  This weekend is now unsettled with LP around when this same model was showing HP all the way few days ago.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 9TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will drift slowly away NE into Scandinavia over the next 24-48hrs with an ESE flow developing across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming more settled through this week with a return to more unsettled and cooler conditions from the coming weekend.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridged well to the North of the UK currently as High pressure lies to the NE. Over the coming days the flow realigns well South of the UK near Iberia before turning North across the UK. Thereafter the flow remains close to or across the UK blowing in a NE'ly or Easterly direction across us.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows High pressure receding away to the NE over the coming days with pressure gently falling in the gentle SE flow across the UK. By the weekend a trough of Low pressure moves NE across the UK setting up a period of many troughs and rain at times in a SW wind, strong for a time next week. While this wet and windy theme continues across the NW throughout the remainder of the period a drier, brighter and warmer period is shown to develop for a time across the South and East around the second weekend before Low pressure returns from the West to all by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is broadly similar to the Operational run in theme with rain at times for all from the weekend. It maintains the unsettled theme off the Atlantic for a week or so until High pressure builds across the UK from the SW to end the period with fine and dry conditions developing for all late in the period with some pleasantly warm days but with mists and fog by night.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are still showing a predominance from members of generally unsettled weather likely across the UK in 14 days time as Low pressure looks likely to remain to the North or NW of the UK. 25% of members do show a ridge affecting the South though at that time keeping the unsettled weather going mainly over the North.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows very changeable conditions spreading NE across the UK from late Friday and early Saturday. It doesn't show blanket rainfall though as there will be some drier and brighter slots in between with a mostly moderate to fresh SW wind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show the UK High moving away NE with complex Atlantic fronts moving NE across the UK from later on Friday and through the weekend with some short drier spells in between.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows that once the current fine spell elapses from the start of the weekend the rest of the 10 day period becomes a very volatile and unsettled period with spells of rain and showers on most days for all areas and at times accompanied by strong SW or Westerly winds as Low pressure becomes established either over or just to the North or west of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very similar to GEM in many respects delivering deeply unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds across the UK at times as Low pressure dominates close to the West and North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning looks less dramatic than some of the other output in regard to strong winds but paints the same picture of plenty of rain at times as Low pressure continually feeds in off the Atlantic for most of the period once the current fine spell decays away from late Friday and into Saturday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a strong indication that Low pressure will lie close to the NW of the UK as well as the Northern North Atlantic with breezy Westerly airflows and rain at times for all areas but perhaps most prolific towards the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM and UKMO are at 96.0 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.1 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.3 pts followed by ECM at 84.9 and GFS at 82.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.9 pts over GFS's 51.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.4 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png
 
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains in control across the UK for the time being as it migrates slowly away to the NE over the remaining days of this week to position itself over Scandinavia. As winds veer SE temperatures should be on the rise and sunshine amounts should increase as warmer and drier air is sucked up across the UK from the SE later in the week. Then it's all eyes to the SW as pressure steadily falls and a complete change in weather type occurs over the weekend. Saturday looks likly to be the day of change as Low pressure troughs move up from the SW with rain for Southern and Western regions extending to other sreas too on Sunday. Thereafter while some drier and brighter spells are likely rain never looks like being far away as nearly all output show Low pressure over or near the UK in one shape or form maintaining very changeable conditions with rain at times through next week. There are hints that the South and East may be spared the very worst of the unsettled conditions for a while next week as pressure rises to the South but this looks by no means a guarantee with the overall message today being to enjoy the remainder of the weeks fine and pleasantly warm conditions because from the weekend on we will be chasing bands of rain and showers and possibly strong winds too around the UK as the Jet Stream fires up again in a position likely to be across the South of the UK or Northern France.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2641.gif

With High pressure close to the SE the weather would be fine and warm in the South and East while the North and West see the unsettled theme continue in 11 days.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY  00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1561.gif

With Low pressure swinging NE over SW Ireland widespread heavy rain and gales would affect the UK in 7 days time.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 10th 2015

I like this Charts of the Day feature. Very handy to illustrate what you're discussing in the My Thoughts paragraph above.

As we're at Blackpool Pleasure Beach on Saturday, I've been imploring the weather gods to keep the block in place until Saturday evening at least. Latest runs widdles all over that hope

looking like a rough 2nd half of september with the jet stream diving south, hopefully this will be a break thru to a bit more exciting weather model watching,

Blimey..Saturday is looking different now. It had been progged largely fine until now.

It show how poor the models had been performing and from what I look it seem fine on Sunday morning between the dry gap for boot sales as there none on Sunday 20th September as there another event, that time GFS showing stupidly warm settled charts.  I mean stupid after they kept showing it in the mid range all the time that never come off 100% so far.  When time come it will be raw, wet and dull weather.

I am getting married on Saturday so have been watching the forecast for Saturday for the past week and it just seems to get wetter and cooler each time I check. It is now forecast 16C, heavy rain showers. A small dry spell around 2pm is the best I can hope for now! Very frustrated that we miss out on dry warm weather by a day. My honeymoon in Cornwall next week isn't looking so great either. If only I'd got married last Saturday and had my honeymoon this week :(

I'm supposed to going on a long country walk and then to the pub afterwards. Half of the day is cancelled.

It a lot worst now as we don't get anything real heat or cold despite models kept showing those values but in reality it never happens.  Between winter and summer average max range around 16C to now around 10-12C and if this continue like that it would be more temperate to around 6-8C range with 10C in winter and 18C in summer instead of 8C to 24C for here. 

This evening ensembles show warmer air in mid range again and that time last week for today supposedly very warm failed as usual. No sun equal no warmth rules apply in September.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY SEP 10TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will continue to drift slowly away NE into Scandinavia over the next 24-48hrs with an ESE flow developing across the UK and Low pressure and troughs moving up into the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow ridged well to the North of the UK currently but over the coming days it is scheduled to realign to the South of the UK at the same time as strengthening markedly. It then returns on a NE'ly course across the Uk for much of next week before slackening somewhat through Week 2 for a time but the axis of it never moving far enough away to the NW to eliminate the UK being under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a deteriorating weather pattern across the UK as Low pressure moves up from the SW late tomorrow and through the weekend and persists in one shape or form over the UK for the following 10 days or so. This will bring spells of strong winds and rain interspersed with showery interludes and temperatures no better than average. It takes until Day 12 to obtain a ridge which would promise the South a temporary dry interlude for a couple of days before Atlantic Low pressure returns by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar over Week 1 but is rather kinder in Week 2 as more influence of higher pressure to the SE keeps the rain more concentrated towards the North and West in the second week with the drier weather extending to other areas too at the end of the period as High pressure crosses England and Wales from the SW.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show 45% of members with Low pressure to the West in 14 days time with rain at times especially in the West. The remaining 55% of members show a variety of options ranging through High pressure to the South (25%) High pressure to the NE with 'Col' conditions across the UK (25%) and 5% with a rasping Northerly with a deep Low over Scandinavia.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cocktail of Low pressure areas revolving around the UK through next week in very unstable, unsettled and often windy weather with temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show Low pressure taking control of the weather across the UK from the start of the weekend with troughs crossing all areas from the SW and being reinforced by more early next week when windy weather is shown to become a feature too.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows the unsettled weather too beginning tomorrow evening in the SW and extending to all areas soon afterwards. The rest of the period is shown to be unsettled and windy with heavy rain at times especially in the West while the SE may see some reduction in rainfall later next week as High pressure brushes by over the near continent setting up warm and humid conditions for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very unsettled this morning as Low pressure moves in from the SW and makes the UK it's resting place for much of next week with rain and showers for all in sometimes strong winds and average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning looks very similar to the majority of the output this morning bringing deep Low pressure areas up from the SW and across all areas over the next week. A lot of rainfall is possible in places and some for all though later next week could see drier and humid conditions affect the East and SE for a time as the heaviest rain remains across the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows a slightly better prospect as Low pressure appears to have retreated further to the NW in the preceding days enabling drier weather to affect the South and East at times while the North and West maintains the more unsettled theme with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter. It also indicates that a temporary better period of weather could affect the SE and East late next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM and UKMO are at 95.9 pts  while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.1 pts followed by ECM at 84.7 and GFS at 82.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.3 pts to 33.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS We are staring down the barrel of a marked unsettled and eventually windy period of early Autumn weather as the High pressure of this week becomes a distant memory by Saturday. The SW looks first to see this change with some rain marching in later tomorrow and over the weekend this extends North and East to all areas followed by brighter and more showery conditions for a time. It's the second phase of rain later Sunday and through next week which looks moreominous as this could be accompanied by strong winds and gales in places as a depression deepens as it moves North over the UK on Monday. This sets up a complex system of Low pressure over and around the UK with further spells of rain and showers along with blustery winds throughout the rest of next week. In amongst all this gloom is hope of a better period of weather across the SE and East late next week and the second weekend as High pressure over the near continent could ward off the worst of the Low pressure out to the West and NW and send some warm and humid conditions up across the South and East for a while. The charts showing this are marginal though and in any event it hints that Low pressure would return again to all after a few days to end the period unsettled for all with further rain. So it's basically make the most of this week's fine weather which in itself has been something of a disappointment for many because from saturday onward it will either be raining or rain will never be far away with strong winds to boot at times next week too. Amounts of rain do look greater than any charts I have seen for some considerable while and while widespread problems do not seem likely the water table could become quite high by the end of next week if the Low pressure areas are as persistent and active as some charts show today, this most likely in the West and SW.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

In selecting the best Chart of the Day there is a measure of how poor conditions will be at times over the next few weeks as the best chart I can find is the current midnight last night one showing High pressure warding off an Atlantic attack for now in a warm SE feed and dry weather for all..

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY  00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

For the worst chart of the day I could of selected quite a few but opted for this one from ECM at Day 5 with the UK engulfed by active Low pressure with the one to the West affecting the UK in the days that follow. This chart is notable for me as it offers no easy way out of unsettled weather over the UK in the following days.

Next update from 09:00 Friday Sep 11th 2015

Looking very unsettled that's for sure after tomorrow.

Quite autumnal really.

Tropical storm Henri lining up for an attack somewhere over middle Britain about the middle of next week, though I don't see it GFS/ECM in the chart viewer

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-henri-atlantic-bermuda-newfoundland-2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY SEP 11TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will move away East over Scandinavia today followed by a trough of Low pressure and attendant Low pressure moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow repositioning to the South of the UK over the coming days and remaining there for some time before moving back to the NW of the UK later next week. It then becomes more variable in strength and generally shifts back South across the UK late in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled period developing from today across the UK with Low pressure becoming complex and often quite deep over and around the UK bringing spells of rain and showers to all in blustery winds. The pattern eases late next week especially across Engand and Wales where High pressure to the SE brings a warm and humid few days with little if any rain before the pattern resets to a more unsettled nationwide spell again towards the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL  The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is better than the operational as the unsettled spell of the coming week is superseded by better weather moving up from the SW across England and Wales later next week and persisting in one shape or form for much of the second week 2 with only weak troughs across the South delivering patchy rain at times while the North and NW maintain rather more directly unsettled conditions from off the Atlantic.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show 75% of members with Low pressure to the North in 14 days time with rain at times especially in the North and West. The remaining 25% of members show a variety of options with High pressure under control positioned over the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows a cocktail of Low pressure areas revolving around the UK through next week in very unstable, unsettled and often windy weather with temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show Low pressure taking control of the weather across the UK from the start of the weekend with troughs crossing all areas from the SW and being reinforced by more early next week when windy weather is shown to become a feature at times too.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today looks generally unsettled throughout with Low pressure only slowly giving way to rather less windy and wet weather towards the end of the run as pressure slowly builds from the SW with a tenuous and slow link to improving conditions across the UK next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows no improvement later next week as it maintains Low pressure over the UK through to the end of the period with showers and longer spells of rain at times for all in blustery winds from the West or SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has also watered down any sign of major improvements later next week as the weeks unsettled and Low pressure based theme for all areas remains well locked into position into next weekend and to the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW and a geerally Westerly flow across the UK with no doubt rain at times for all, heaviest towards the North and West with some drier spells in the South and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models maintain their theme of High pressure migrating East away from the UK later next week with a return to more unsettled Atlantic winds thereafter. The theme of recent days to an interlude of less unsettled weather in the South and East late next week has weakened somewhat this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.3 pts to UKMO's 99.2 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.1 pts.  At 3 days ECM leads at 96.0 pts with UKMO at 95.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.0 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.2 pts followed by ECM at 84.7 and GFS at 82.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.6 pts over GFS's 49.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 37.5 pts to 33.7 pts from GFS

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 
MY THOUGHTS Things still look very unsettled within this morning's set of output. After today's final gasp of Summer it looks like a week at least of wet and and at times windy weather will affect the UK. Of course it won't be raining all the time and some drier and pleasant sunnier breaks will exist too but when the rain comes it is likely to be heavy with strong winds in places and it will no doubt give a very strong indication that we are now into Autumn. The worst of the weatehr still appears to be towards the middle of next week when strong winds and rain combine to give an unpleasant spell or two for may in between showery weather. There is still some scope for improvements towards the South and East of Britain later next week and GFS lead this camp this morning with High pressure ridging up from the SW and restricting more unsettled weather towards the NW. However, all the rest seem to have limited such improvements to more modest levels if at all with Low pressure looking to remain the dominat feature with rain or showers at times. The emphasis of this may well shift the heaviest rainfall from the SW to the NW with time though. Temperatures look like returning to near to average after today though it will still feel pleasant in any sunshine but cool in rainfall. Looking across the board the charts have a very Autumnal look about them today and with tropical storm features in the mix too over the Atlantic some quite volatile weather could occur at anytime over the coming two weeks with the grain of comfort this morning focusing on that possible if temporary improvement across Southern and Eastern Britain late next week.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif

In selecting the best Chart of the Day I have gone for the 216hr chart from GFS which illustrates our hopes of an improvement in a week or so as High pressure to the SE funnels warm and humid air up across the UK with the South and East dry and warm with the Atlantic influence at that stage away to the NW.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY  00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif

For the worst chart of the day I have gone for the GEM 120hr chart but there are other canditates too which were possible to achieve this accolade. Here we have a very deep Low to the SW with warm and moist Southerly winds ahead of it delivering copious rainfall to the South and West with possible flooding issues for a time should it verify as shown.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Sep 13th 2015

I suppose the one saving grace is the formation of any tropical storms throwing a spanner in the works over the next few weeks, other than that a decidedly wet second half of the month coming up, more so for the NW of the country.

Funny how, when you've got an event coming up on a particular day, you focus on the weather on that day from well in advance, and see how the details changes.

I've been looking at the output for weather in this region for Saturday. Last weekend, models were generally showing the high lasting well into Sunday. By early this week, we were looking at the possibility of the low making inroads as early as Saturday evening, but GFS at least initially backed away from this to keep all Saturday dry. Then, by midweek, all models were pointing to a washout Saturday from around lunchtime onwards (in NW England); a run or two further on and it's general agreement for rain from dawn to dusk. Fast forward another couple of runs and, by yesterday evening, the main bulk of the rain was showing to fall overnight & through the morning, brightening up in the afternoon.

Now, the BBC forecasts are showing that the rain will push through overnight, and leave most of NW England dry with sunny spells from mid-morning onwards.

Not how I'd expected it to pan out, but very welcome nonetheless.

Yes I have already thought of that one. Good will define dry, bright and pleasantly mild, Bad will be all Low pressure and cold related conditions inc snow. I know that doesn't necessarily fit the bill of many weather entrepreneurs in here but Joe public are more likely to see it my way of thinking.

Incidentally there will be no report tomorrow too busy with work and also through the crazy season over the Winter months I will probably just put a link to the text of my reports on here to direct you to my website otherwise I will be lost in the one liners and will it snow in my backyard type of posts that accompany that time. Hopefully all of that is some months off though.