Urgh, too soon for that kind of s**t. Mind you, it could be worse, I suppose and it does look like it'll be a lot less unsettled by this time next week.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY SEP 13TH 2015.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure will become dominant and complex near to SW England tomorrow with cyclonic and in places strong winds across the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East or SW to NE over France and Northern Spain keeping the UK on it's northern flank and under a trough. after a week or so the flow migrates North to Scotland at the same time as weakening with hints of it moving further NW still at the end of the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled week to come with several Low pressure areas making the UK their home over the next week, each offering their own version of wet and windy weather with some heavy and thundery rain at times, most concentrated across Southern areas with brighter more showery weather at times too. By next weekend and beyond the emphasis of wind and rain shifts towards the North as High pressure desperately tries to move into the UK from the SW. It is shown to be a painfully slow progress but by the end of the run many places look to have become dry, bright and relatively benign for a time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is copycat of the operational for the next 5-7 days with unsettled and windy weather for all with heavy rain at times. It too then shows a brief improvement over the South in just over a weeks time before unsettled weather returns from the NW as Low pressure slips SE over Britain last to leave the SE. Pressure then rises from the North and several days of benign conditions look likely before Low pressure over the Atlantic edges troughs towards SW Britain again before the end of the period.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are very diverse as members offer conflicting messages ranging from wet and windy to calm and settled weather. The emphasis though is around 50/50 perhaps with a slight bias towards influence from Low pressure more than High pressure being dominant.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather throughout this week with heavy rain and showers mixed with occasional gales likely for many at times. It does show better conditions moving across the UK next weekend though as a ridge of High pressure builds across the UK from the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North into the South of the UK where they become slow moving before being reinforced by further centres following a similar track meaning very unsettled and often very windy weather for the UK especially over the South

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today looks very changeable through it's 10 days with very wet and windy spells across the UK over the next 5 days under complex UK based Low pressure before cool and showery NW winds ahead of a ridge lead to a better period to start the second week. It isn't long though before Low pressure, this time to the NW is shown to move SE across the UK to return unsettled and sometimes wet weather to all by midweek of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout this week as various Low pressure areas affect the UK as they pass over. Then as with much of the other output pressure rises somewhat next weekend with a better period especially over the South under a simplified Westerly flow with some rain at times still over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also looks very unsettled through the working week with rain, gales and sunshine all possible as deep low pressure areas cross the South at times. then by the weekend pressure is shown to rise markedly with dry and fine weather developing for many next weekend. How long it lasts is unclear as the model shows just a tenuous hint of a continuation of this drier spell as High pressure to the NE and SW link under conflictingly falling pressure over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure up to the NW and a generally Westerly flow across the UK with no doubt rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West with some drier spells in the South and East closer to High pressure to the SW and France.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are universally supportive of 5-6 days of often wet and windy weather followed by something of an improvement over next weekend with no clear pattern of any improvement lasting or not from then on.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.1 pts. At 3 days ECM ties at 96.1 pts with UKMO while GFS lags behind at 95.2 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.7 pts followed by ECM at 85.2 and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.6 pts over GFS's 50.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.9 pts to 32.9 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS Though details from run to run are sometimes quite stark in the positioning of individual Low pressure areas over the coming week the message is the same from all output in that we are all going to see several spells of rain this week mixed with brighter showery conditions. What is less clear is whether that will be accompanied by potentially gale or severe gales. The positioning of Low pressure this week will be crucial in facilitating high winds with a more Northerly aspect to their passage giving the South a real battering while if they stay over the English channel or France then high winds are more unlikely. However, whatever happens through the week there remains a strong message that things may improve for a time next weekend as all models show a ridge of High pressure at least making an unusual if temporary weekend visit to our shores with dry and benign conditions likely. Then as we look into the longer term there is also a suggestion that Low pressure will reignite up to the NW and bring back more unsettled and windy weather with rain at times in Week 2 probably most focused towards the North and West. To be honest though with so much complexity in the atmosphere from ex tropical storms over the western Atlantic details of a period of time more than a week from now become quite futile and need to be explored later this week when the worst of this week's pool of Low pressure starts to move away and a clearer indication of the extent and longevity of next weekend's improvements are better understood. So in a sentence a wet and potentially very windy period of weather at times is likely over the next 5-6 days with less volatile and more benign Autumn weather arriving next weekend and possibly lasting for a time into the second week.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

In selecting the best Chart of the Day today I have gone for the Day 7 Chart from ECM with a High pressure ridge having built strongly across England and Wales over the preceding 24 hours. Though in this run the ridge weakens in the following days it offers a period of relatively dry and benign typically quiet early Autumn conditions for several days across the UK.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

For the worst chart I have gone for the ECM 4 day chart for midnight on Thursday although I could of picked any model's chart at that time point to highlight what is likely to be the pinnacle of the worst weather of the week. While the Low on this chart is harmlessly crossing NE over Southern England with SW gales kept across France any deviation further to the NW of this Low's movements could result in SW gales of some magnitude across Southern Britain and more especially the South Coast which could lead to some disruption. This Low is the one to watch this week as it has the potential to become newsworthy while on the other hand it may not depending in a shift of movement to that shown above by just a 100mls or so to the NW.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Sep 14th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY SEP 14TH 2015 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION.

A complex Low pressure area currently over the SW of England will move slowly NE across the Midlands and away to the NE tomorrow. Gale or severe gale force Westerly winds will move across Southern England later today and tonight easing tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming unsettled and often windy with rain or showers at times though perhaps drier for a time especially in the South early next week.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for much of the working week before moving North of the UK towards the weekend. Thereafter it moves back South again across the UK for a time before finally resting much further North than recently in response to High pressure near the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled week to come with several Low pressure areas making for very wet conditions at times with heavy rain and gale or even severe gale force wind gusts at time, especially over the South. Later in the week Low pressure is shown to move away to the NE as a High pressure ridge moves across from the West. Thereafter the South and West become dry and bright under a West or NW flow while the North and East see further troughs move SE for a time with occasional rain. Then at the end of the period High pressure takes control across all of the UK with fine and sunny weather but chilly and probably foggy nights too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning is very similar in sequence to the events listed above from the operational model. The main difference being that next week sees more in the way of changeable conditions for all under a NW flow as the High to the SW makes less inroads into UK airspace maintaining a cool NW drift down across the UK throughout next week.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning are all over the place with various scenarios very different shown for the UK in 14 days time. While 40% most favour a slight bias towards slack Low pressure across the UK between High to the East and West a fair amount show something rather better under High pressure in the vicinity of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO

UKMO today shows Low pressure well in control of the UK weather throughout this week with heavy rain and showers mixed with occasional gales likely for many at times. It does show better conditions moving across the UK next weekend though as a ridge of High pressure builds across the UK from the South.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving North into the South of the UK where they become slow moving before being reinforced by further centres following a similar track meaning very unsettled and possibly very windy weather for the UK especially over the SW today and SE midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows very unsettled and windy weather this week with rain and wind at times before an improvement is shown for the weekend as a risge of High pressure crosses East over the UK. In the days that follow and into next week a rather slack pressure gradient develops across the UK with some rain about as weak disturbances aloft look likely to give rise to a lot of cloud even in the drier periods between the inevitable outbreaks of rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows wet and windy conditions at times too throughout this week before a weak ridge crosses East over the UK at the weekend promising a drier and brighter interlude. It isn't long for the output shows a return to more changeable conditions as fronts move back in across the UK from the West or NW next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning also looks very unsettled through the working week with rain, gales and sunshine all possible as deep Low pressure areas cross the South at times. Then at the weekend pressure is shown to rise markedly with dry and fine weather developing for many next weekend. It looks unlikely to be the start of a sustained fine spell though as pressure falls and becomes relatively slack over the UK and Western Europe with rain at times from slow moving frontal systems before perhaps becoming rather drier from the NW later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night has leaned back towards a more changeable Westerly pattern of weather across the UK in 10 days time with the general rule of thunb between members of the ensemble pack showing Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally unchanged from yesterday in the general message of wet and windy weather this week followed by improvements at the weekend, but for how long is not well agreed upon.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

MY THOUGHTS The models have changed little over the last 24 hours with the UK still shown to be under attack over the next 4-5 days of unsettled and occasionally very windy weather with spells of sometimes heavy and thundery rain. The main focus for disruption is likely to be from wind in coastal areas today in the SW and again from midweek in an area yet to be determined as a particularly nasty and complex Low looks likely to move it's way NE over Southern England. On current thinking we look to be spared widespread gales as the Low tracks over or to the South taking the worst of the winds across Northern France though this could change. We all look likely to have a strong blow from the West on Thursday and for a time Friday too as this feature moves away NE across the North Sea with a sunshine and shower mix across the UK. Pressure is then shown to rise strongly and a ridge is well documented on all output to move across from the West over the weekend with dry and bright weather developing for many once the last of the showers exit the East early on Saturday. It's from this point on when the waters muddy with some output like GFS showing High pressure once established never leaving the SW with largely dry conditions thereafter for the remainder of the period extending to all areas by the end of the run as pressure builds strongly across all of the UK then. The general message is a bit less attractive than this though with much more reluctance to bring High pressure across the UK and with pressure having leaked away next week further changeable weather looks far more likely to affect the UK next week with occasional rain from troughs which could be slow moving under slack conditions which look to be well supported for next week from GEM and ECM and the GFS Clusters. So in a nutshell a very wet few days to come with strong winds a risk too with the best weather for once this week likely to be in the NW. Then a better period of weather at the weekend with dry and bright conditions might last into next week before a slow reversion back towards more changeable weather looks likely later but all bets are off really on where we go next week and probably won't become clear for a time yet while the position of the passage of this weeks clutch of Low pressure is finally nailed down.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.gif 

In selecting the best Chart of the Day I had no problem in selecting this chart as it highlights a typical Autumn anticyclone nesting across the UK with light winds for all and fine and sunny early Autumn weather in luke warm conditions by day contrasting with cool and often foggy nights. It is though at T+360hrs so is unlikely to verify as shown unfortunately.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg721.gif 

For the worst chart I have gone for the Navgems 72hr chart but in all honesty I could of gone for any of the models at that time point and they would of all looked equally bad. This chart shows a deep Low near SW England with gales or severe gales around the UK coasts but not inland. This is probably the best scenario for the Low to be held to the South and SE keeping the strongest winds as on this chart over Northern France. It is likely though that copious rainfall in the South will be a problem and we will all experience a strong blow from the West later on Thursday as the Low exits away to the NE.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Sep 15th 2015

The Wednesday storm seems to be arriving a little later with each new run. The intensity hasn't changed much though, with GFS still going for around 982 mb as of 1pm Wednesday, while ECM has it at 978 mb:

I suspect that 'core' of the storm will be critical in terms of the peak wind gusts experienced; if it stays tightly organised with little in the way of secondary disturbances then gusts of 50 to perhaps 60 mph may well affect The Southeast for a time. Whereas the development of a secondary low on the NE flank as suggested by GFS could shift those strongest winds over to the near continent, tracking into the North Sea through the evening and night. In fact that scenario produces an area of relatively light winds over central parts of the UK for a time - however there's then the threat of some slow moving downpours as the steering flow becomes vague for a time. This only lasts a small part of the day yet could cause some very high totals locally.

Obviously the ECM scenario would feature more in the way of heavy showers piling inland from the Channel ahead of it, plus precipitation wrapping around the core. So two different routes to a very wet day, with both outcomes starting things off with a band of heavy rain before they go their separate ways.

Longer term, I'm not paying too much attention to the output beyond what looks to be a fine and dry weekend for most of us, as the models aren't making much of a potential tropical cyclone that the NHC strongly favours for development in the near future:

GFS was having a good go with it until the 12z op run so at least we've seen the sort of effects it could have and how varied they are (anything from throwing up a strong ridge ahead of it or paying us a visit, depending on it's timing and track).

The one with medium chances for development could also come into play eventually... some recent GFS runs had it doing a dance with the one ahead of it while near the Azores, which was interesting to see.

The rain cleared in Blackpool by 10.30am and the day became progressively sunnier. Lovely day overall. We struck lucky.

Running very late today so only have time to give you a link to my daily report taken from my website:-

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Excellent as ever, James  - thanks

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY SEP 16TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex Low pressure area will move from Biscay to SE England and away over the North Sea tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming less unsettled next week with longer drier spells with most rainfall likely over the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow well to the South of the UK blowing strongly West to East for the next few days before it ridges North around the UK at the weekend in association with a ridge crossing East over the UK. The flow then is shown to blow NW to SE over the UK next week before positioning and flow thereafter becomes hard to define.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a very unsettled coming few days as complex Low pressure areas move across England and away to the NE late in the week. This then allows a NW flow behind the Lows to be followed by a ridge of High pressure crossing East at the weekend. Then next week Low pressure slips SE across the UK with a period of unsettled weather once more. towards the end of the run pressure being High over Europe extends a strong ridge across the UK from the East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run this morning shows quite dry and settled weather becoming established across parts of the UK from the start of next week. In fact the weekend too will be dry for many before a weakening band of rain crosses East late on Sunday and Monday. Pressure then builds strongly from the South with a North/South split in the weather later next week with the best conditions across the South which extends to all areas later as an intense High pressure lies across the UK over the second half of the run.

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning have turned High pressure based across much of the UK in 14 days time with 70% showing High pressure biased conditions over 30% which show something more Low pressure based.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= UKMO 

UKMO today shows High pressure at the weekend moving away East early next week as a broad trough is shown to return more unsettled weather with some rain to all areas early next week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show complex areas of Low pressure moving away NE over the coming days taking it's showery weather with it to give a dry weekend for many under a strong ridge. This edges away East by the end of the 120hr period as rain bearing fronts approach from the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a High pressure ridge developing at the weekend as a ridge pushes across from the West. As this moves away East troughs will move in from the West with some rain for many for a time before a North/South split slowly develops later next week as High pressure lies not far to the SW while the North stays under Westerly winds and occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the improvements at the weekend being shunted away east early next week as a weakening trough crosses east with some rain in places. this then looks like setting up a North/South divide in conditions for the end of next week with the best conditions over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning is not as pretty as some of the other output in the longer term and while it shows the ridge at the weekend bringing fine and dry conditions for many for a time cloud and rain on troughs moving in from the West early next week slides SE and keeps a cool feed of air across the South and East with further showers while the North becomes better for a time before towards the end of the run shows Atlantic Westerlies returning to all areas with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates to me that there is a good chance of a North/South split in the weather with the best weather in the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are generally showing signs of leaning towards a fair amount of High pressure based weather across the UK from the middle of next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM leads UKMO at 99.4 pts to UKMO's 99.3 pts with GFS coming in third at 99.2 pts. At 3 days ECM leads at 96.2 pts with UKMO at 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.3 pts. At 5 days UKMO is king at 85.9pts followed by ECM at 85.4 and GFS at 83.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 59.4 pts over GFS's 50.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 39.0 pts to 33.0 pts from GFS.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig 

MY THOUGHTS Things look like improving across the UK next week as more output shows High pressure based conditions developing across the UK next week rather than Low. Nevertheless there is still some stubborn resistance about bringing universal support for this theory, none more so than the ECM operational run which generally shows changeable conditions throughout next week with rain at times. On the contrary the GFS Operational is a peach this morning as intense High pressure lying across the UK later in the run illustrates fine and settled Autumn conditions for all. However, before all this happens we still have to see the back of the current complexities which are still giving forecasters a headache as to how much rain, wind and to what extent all this occurs within the next 24 hours. It looks strongly to me as if many areas look like escaping unscathed from the feature moving NE over the SE late today. Yes there will be some heavy and thundery downpours in the SE corner but the area looks like restricted much further to the East and SE rather than elsewhere with the whole lot swept away to the NE quite quickly tonight. It all illustrates how fragile and complex the weather patterns are currently which could complicate and affect the predictions that currently exist for next week so caution should be urged on events next week until the weekend.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=300&mode=0&carte=0 

The best chart of the day today goes to the GFS Control Run at 300hrs which shows an intense High pressure near Scotland with fine and settled weather for all across the UK.

WORSE CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

For the worst chart I have also gone for the here and now using the midnight today chart from GFS showing deep and complex Low pressure to the South and over the UK leading to an unsettled 24-36hrs across the UK. It also indicates a strong improvement likely over the current weather over the coming two weeks as nothing in the output thereafter is as bad as this chart over the two week period.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Sep 17th 2015