Interesting test of models coming up as early as next Tuesday:

GFS 0z - depression standing off the SW approaches

ECM - small secondary depression over E Anglia linked to parent depression off Hebrides

Meto (i.e. Weather for the week ahead, last night) - rather larger secondary depression over the Midlands linked to parent depression in Bay of Biscay

I'd love to do 1740 (whole year would be great) but unfortunately historic charts only go back to 1871.

I hear NCEP are creating reanalysis charts back to 1850 though... So maybe one day we'll be able to get back to 1740? Would be quite something if we could wouldn't it?

Only at this time of year could there be no mention of a vicious storm threatening the UK in 8 days time on the 12z ECM op run.

Sure, there's huge uncertainty regarding whether Joaquin will even make it into the Atlantic westerlies, let along at a latitude suitable for taking a swipe at the UK. Timing relative to the non-tropical storms is also critical, as is evident if you recall the 00z op run which had the remnants arriving SW of the UK as a fairly small, not at all strong area of low pressure.

Either way, the ex-'cane may have some interesting effects on the longwave patterns in the Atlantic and also the high latitudes north and northeast of the UK. It could define the nature of a large part of October, much like how ex-Bertha gave rise to the dominant pattern of August 2014, turning gloriously warm/hot prospects into despairingly chilly ones.

Not saying it would neccesarily be a chilly outcome this time around, indeed with the more meridional jet we could see exceptional warmth (or at least mildness) should the ridges and troughs align just-so.

The GFS 18z has trended closer with ex-Joaquin, which does make me wonder if the odds are shifting in favour of a rough event for some of us. A lot will come down to whether the 'cane is drawn toward the main Atlantic trough exiting the U.S. over the next 48 hours, or feels more of an attraction toward a cut-off low developing over Florida (which would cause a turn west and a U.S. landfall).

A stunning Easterly but 2 months too early. Some very cold air already though in the East. We need this pattern to keep repeating into late Nov early Dec.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY OCT 2ND 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure remains slow moving across the UK but weakening slowly over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK but amounts in NE Russia, Alaska, Greenland along with the mountains of Iceland is increasing now as one would expect.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly settled and fine at first but more unsettled and windy thereafter with rain or showers at times especially over the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the flow weakening slowly as a new arm approaches the UK from the SW. This arm remains in situ as it continues to approach the UK and weaken and breaks up as it makes it's way into NW Europe. This pattern remains until late in the period when a more straightforward West to East flow across the Atlantic and the UK develops.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weekend being the last days of the current fine spell as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK on occasion next week. Winds will also increase markedly from a point between South and west so never very cold. Through Week 2 a continuation of the unsettled theme seems likely with more Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of Scotland and pushing active troughs East over the UK with heavy rain, most prolific in the North and strong winds at times and temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week commands a more definitive split between North and South with rain and strong winds continuing across the North while High pressure builds up close to the South later with mild SW winds and mostly dry weather for much of the time towards the end of the run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters this morning show an almost unanimous picture that Low pressure will lie to the NW of the UK with West or SW winds likely across the UK pushing troughs East across most of the UK with rain and strong winds at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled next week with two areas of rain crossing NE over the UK on both Monday and Tuesday with more showery conditions for Wednesday with the hint on the 144hr chart of further rain on an active Low pressure waiting in the wings across the Atlantic.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show High pressure declining steadily over the weekend with a complete change of weather type from Monday of next week as active Atlantic depressions and fronts spread wind and rain North and East across the UK with showers following in blustery West winds by midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM continues the theme of unsettled conditions too next week with the emphasis on the wettest conditions always focused more towards the North and NW while some longer drier spells are most likely over the South and East of the UK where it is also shown to be quite mild at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is similar to GEM in many respects with an even greater indication that the South and East could become drier again after the middle of next week as pressure builds over the nearby continent with rain bearing fronts held up to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has a very different approach to next weeks weather as it start with a wet and windy period with a couple of periods of rain and strong winds early in the week before drier conditions develop later especially over the East. Pressure then builds across Scandinavia and blocks the progress of all Atlantic wind and rain systems to all but the far SW of the UK by the end of the run with a keen SE breeze for most.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to promote Low pressure to the NW with some influence across most of the UK with rain at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models still show little consistency in the way conditions will unfold once the current High pressure declines and the trough early next week moves into the UK from the SW. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts then GFS at 84.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS and ECM are tied at 36.1 pts each.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We have a few more days of fine and settled weather across the UK before a marked change in the weather occurs at the start of next week. What is less clear is that once that change has occurred how long it will last before a return to better weather takes place and in that resolve none of the models offer any assurance this morning on any one evolution, Taking things step by step fine and bright weather over the weekend with mist and fog at night will remain the familiar pattern before cloud, wind and rain move up from the SW on Monday, a process that looks likely to be repeated on Tuesday before a spell of showers and sunny spells in a blustery WSW wind midweek. It's then that things become much less clear. The majority of output does suggest a shift of emphasis of any further wind and rain more towards the North and West from later next week with some longer drier and at times warmer spells towards the East and SE with GEM and NAVGEM promoting this the most. ECM has a rather different take on things as it sets up a blocking High over Scandinavia warding off any eastward progression of wind and rain from a rather unsettled looking Atlantic. The SW will then become most at risk of seeing some wind and rain from these Low pressure systems while all other areas see a SE wind and dry and bright weather predominating and if this evolves it could feel quite warm again in shelter. So once more this morning though a breakdown in the weather is virtually nailed on early next week the length and extent of it's establishment is still unclear and the East and South and possibly the North too could see a return to some drier conditions later.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.gif

The accolade of the worst chart of the day today goes to the GFS today at Day 5 as it shows a small and vigorous Low pressure area crossing England and Wales delivering rain and gales for a time.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

The best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 9 which illustrates how High pressure to the NE of the UK can form a strong block to the Atlantic with in this case a lot of fine weather developing again across the UK after a period of more unsettled weather.

Next update from 09:00 Sunday Oct 3rd 2015

Fax Chart 144hrs for Thursday's low could be interesting.

There's still a large spread of solutions for this compact low coming in at some point on Monday.

GFS has the low at similar intensity but tracking just west of Ireland.

UKMO has the low quite a way further east, crossing central parts of the UK, but it's not nearly as deep:

We need to see this sorted out soon, as there are signs this low could have sub-tropical properties meaning there's the risk of a compact region of particularly strong winds and very heavy rain.

After that, the focus turns to ex-Joaquin. A lot of recent operational model runs have been bringing it close enough to bring wild weather to the northwest, and quite a few ensemble members do too. Factors causing uncertainty continue to be whether Joaquin reaches the Atlantic westerlies without disruption via a U.S. landfall, at what latitude it is when engaging with the jet stream, and whether there is a merger with an Atlantic trough.

ECM has the storm maintaining its own identity very well as it makes the trek across, stalling out and winding down just a few hundred miles to the southwest of the UK.

GFS has the storm scraping past the northwest of the UK as it merges with a broad Atlantic trough. Hurricane force winds move very close to N. Ireland and W. Scotland, with a period of gusts in the mid to high 70's mph looking possible if that sort of solution pans out.

UKMO is similar to GFS as of day 6, but with less of a ridge to protect the UK from a more direct onslaught.

The high wind risk looks to be heightened by the presence of strong high pressure across Scandinavia, as this creates a huge pressure gradient between it and the ex-hurricane.

If the system obtains non-tropical characteristics soon enough, this could lead to a particularly vigorous frontal boundary affecting the UK, extending some of the strongest winds further south for a time.

Otherwise, we're looking at a vicious circulation that focuses the strongest winds on the northwest - unless of course the cyclone was to somehow track into the heart of the UK while also merging with the trough. That's certainly the worst case scenario given the parameters in play, but one that has yet to be featured on an operational run. I suspect media interests will have a fit if a GFS operational run shows such a thing at any point in the next few days!  I just hope that if that happens it will prove as misleading as usual.

Joaquin is a bit of a bully; although the storm isn't looking to land a direct hit on us, ECM shows it spewing out a weak area of LP while in its death throes:

Alright, serious hat on, that's a secondary disturbance, but it sure does look like the storm leaves us with an annoying parting gift 

October does seem intent on being unusually settled this year, with HP back on the scene by Thursday, only the far southwest at risk of much interruption between then and the following Tuesday in the ECM 12z op run.

GFS is a bit less creative in its output, with a lot of quiet, settled weather that would probably start to drive me a bit crazy once any warmth was lost. Good job there's a bit of interest Mon-Tue and who knows, Joaquin may still prove more troublesome than the 12z op runs are suggesting this evening.

Not long now until the all important change of the clocks that first allows us all to get up an hour later and second, brings forward the chart upload times to an hour sooner in the day. Winter chart watching during periods of interest would be a right pain in the rear if that didn't happen 

Some nice looking charts there James and looking like October might be a better month than we thought.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY OCT 4TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure continues to decline across the UK with troughs of Low pressure moving NE across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near 6500ft over NE Scotland and over 11000ft over SW England. Snow levels continue to increase over NE Russia and the usual locations at this time of Autumn.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods for some too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern and Southern arm of the Jet Stream continuing to flow both North and South of the UK respectively over the next week. Then the flows break up and become ill defined through the second week and blow much lighter than is usual at this time of year.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the week ahead in two different guises with the first half soon becoming unsettled with rain or showers, heavy at times as Low pressure swings NE across the UK in the coming days. pressure then recovers later in the week with a return to fine and quiet weather over the UK before the remains of tropical storm Joaquin stalls just to the West of the UK throwing warm and moist air across the South of the UK with heavy rain in places. then as this crosses the UK through the second week winds swing to a chilly North or NE with cold and steadily improving conditions expected then across all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run is fairly similar to the operational run though the second week sees improvements arrive in the shape of a ridge from the South rather than the NW with fine less chilly weather than the Operational before a drift back towards more unsettled and windier Atlantic driven weather for all is shown by Day 15.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The full GFS Clusters are not available this morning at time of issue.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO today looks unsettled for a time early in the week as Low pressure and troughs move NE across the UK. pressure then rises soon after midweek from the South and later East with fine and dry weather for many before cloud and rain edges into SW Britain by the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM also shows the unsettled Low pressure based theme of early week short-lived as High pressure gradually regains control of the UK weather stretching down from the NE at the end of the week. SE winds and any unsettled weather will then be restricted to SW Britain towards and towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the same theme as the rest with the unsettled weather of early in the week replaced by drier conditions later as pressure builds again from the East and NE. The end of the run features High to the North and Low to the South with Easterly winds and any rain restricted to the far South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning is on the whole not a bad run once the next few days of unsettled and rainy weather moves away as unlike some of the other output it takes the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin harmlessly away to the NW of the UK late this coming week with a ridge of High pressure largely maintaining control across at least the South of the UK with fine and relatively dry weather with any unsettled conditions restrictive in extent.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows High pressure to both the NE and SW with a slender ridge likely to be lying across the UK at that time with any rain most likely to the far SE and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models show some inconsistencies still largely revolving around the track of ex-hurricane Joaquin. 31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.8 pts to UKMO's 96.6 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.7 pts over GFS's 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.1 pts to 34.6 pts

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Since I last reported on the models on Friday morning the situation on the weather across the UK this week has firmed up in detail with the week ahead looking split into two sections. The current last remains of the recent fine spell will end tonight and tomorrow as troughs of Low pressure bring unstable and humid conditions North and East over Britain with some outbreaks of heavy and possibly thundery rain for all over tomorrow and Tuesday and Wednesday. then pressure looks like rising again largely due to the remains of ex-hurricane Joaquin crossing the Atlantic later this week pumping up some warm air from Europe across the UK. There is still some disagreement on the exact track of this feature with ECM highlighting the differences by showing it tracking well to the NW out of harms way to the UK. Most other output keep it further South across the Atlantic but off shore to the West or SW with any direct influence from it restricted to the far South or SW all the time with pressure remaining High over Scandinavia. Then later in the period the pattern remains fairly unclear but there seems nothing particularly alarmist and unpleasant within the output again today that would be deemed as unusual at this time of year and indeed at times and from some output the weather could become quite warm by day at times with winds from a source well South of the UK.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif

The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+288hrs with Low pressure over Southern Britain and NW Europe engaging some cold air from Scandinavia which if evolved would bring not only wet and windy weather but with increasingly low temperatures sufficient to allow some snowfall over the highest ground of the North.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Contrastingly, the best chart of the day is taken from ECM at Day 10 which this morning shows potential for another fine spell as High pressure from the Azores is shown to be ridging across the UK from the SW with dry and settled conditions as a result with temperatures close to average after the remnants of Low pressure leaks away from both the NW and SE.

Next update from 09:00 Monday Oct 5th 2015

Winter 2015/16 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015100412/ECM1-240.GIF?04-0 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY OCT 5TH 2015

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure areas and troughs will move NNE across the UK both today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level near or just under 10000ft across the UK.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with some rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow splitting North and South of the UK later this week at the same time as the flow becomes very weak next week and generally well to the North of the UK. It then dips South across the UK late in Week 2 as High pressure lies across the Atlantic.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the current change to more unsettled weather generally very short-lived in as much as by Thursday pressure will of rebuilt strongly to the East and NE of the UK. Low pressure to the SW and then South will bring an Easterly flow across the UK and it will probably have a chill to it before High pressure to the North transfers to the West of the UK and sets up our first cold Northerly flow of the season at the end of the run with showers or rain at times and snow over Scottish mountains.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run has some similarities to the Operational Run with High pressure re-establishing across the UK by the end of the week and weekend with fine and dry weather for many. Through Week 2 there also is a fall of pressure to the SE with a strong and cold NE flow too shown with some rain and showers in the South and East to end the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days is for High pressure to lie over the Atlantic either to the West or SW with a mix of options under West or NW winds between dry and fine or cool and damp weather.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure developing over the UK later this week and drifting across to Scandinavia by the weekend. SE winds will increase across the South and West perhaps with some rain with drier weather holding on elsewhere though with a chilly breeze.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning follows the raw data well with pressure rising again after midweek largely responsible to the remains of the ex tropical feature Joaquin moving into the SW approaches at the end of the week which pumps up some warm Southerly winds ahead of it for next weekend.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the East by the weekend with fine and dry weather for many although the temperatures of the recent fine spell are unlikely to be replicated as it may well feel chilly especially in the far South and SE where a keen East or NE breeze will blow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is less supportive of a full settling down of the weather later this week as it brings the remains of ex hurricane Joaquin close to Southern England over next weekend with rain at times across the South with cool and breezy but fine conditions further to the North in association with High pressure to the North and NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning shows a similar theme to the rest with High pressure developing first over and then to the East and NE of the UK by next weekend as Low pressure moves east to the South of the UK. The resultant Easterly flow will bring some rain to the far South but much of the UK will be dry and bright but chilly and as winds fall lighter late in the period some overnight mist, fog and frost look possible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead of UKMO at 99.5 pts to 99.4 with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 96.9 pts to UKMO's 96.68pts while GFS lags behind at 95.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.3 pts to UKMO at 86.4 pts then GFS at 83.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.2 pts over GFS's 51.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 36.2 pts to 34.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

MY THOUGHTS There seems a lot of agreement this morning that High pressure will again become the dominant feature of the weather across the UK as we move through the second half of this week and through the weekend and probably beyond. For now though we have a couple of days of potentially quite wet weather as warm and moist humid air moves across the UK with showers or longer periods of potentially thundery rain and brisk winds as well. Soon after midweek fresher air will push the rain away to the East and the rest of the week becomes largely fine and quiet weather-wise as High pressure builds across the UK as well as to the East and NE of the UK. We still have to watch the final movements of ex-hurricane Joaquin as it is generally agreed now that it is looking likely to move to a position to the SW and South of the UK but there is some output which does show it close enough to push some rain into the SW and South of the UK over the weekend. This is by no means a certainty but it is conceivable the models could still have this movement wrong and it could end up affecting more areas or nowhere at all. Then we have to look forward to Week 2 which currently doesn't look too bad with the quieter version of Autumn weather looking more likely than anything particularly stormy or unpleasant so once again this morning once we lose the current wet conditions we look to be likely to enjoy some quiet but not necessarily as warm conditions as the previous fine spell to highlight those Autumn colours more.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

The accolade of the worst chart of the day goes to GFS at T+384hrs with Low pressure to the East and a rasping Northerly flow over the North Sea and the UK with cold weather with wintry showers across the North and East.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2281.gif 

Contrastingly, the best chart of the day today is the GEM 228hr one which highlights another sustained fine spell with a blocking High across the North of the UK with much if not all of the UK fine and dry once more.

Next update from 09:00 Tuesday Oct 6th 2015

Looks like we're in for a chilly east wind come the weekend with a shower risk down the east coast and in the south.

Quite unusual for this time of year!

Turns cold across Western Russia and parts of Eastern Europe to.

Is this the first ramp of the season!

Quickly flipping through the 06 z GFS output, I almost feel sorry for ex-Joaquin in the way it looked like it was about to be lured into a trap and then have the strength sapped out of by high pressure building around it, like a boa constrictor wrapping itself around a rodent and squeezing the life out of it.
  However, having said that, if the remnants of Joaquin does wander into the warm air over Spain, it might put up a fight which could be bad news for holiday makers hoping for settled weather over Spain and France this coming weekend - assuming if the whole thing does play out as per the outputs as it is still quite a long way off in forecasting terms. 

No.

Looks like Rob K's chimp has been handed the controls for Joaquin's path in the model runs today. No two runs agree on the timing or location other than that the storm will be close by at the end of this week.

There does seem to be a chance of some rain reaching western parts but even that broad level of detail seems pointless to go into right now... hopefully the picture will be a lot clearer by Wednesday evening 

In the meantime, tomorrow looks like it could deliver some hail and a few thunderstorms to parts of the southwest, Wales and The Midlands. Less of a risk for CS England with more of a frequent, often heavy but rarely thundery shower theme going on there.

if only in a couple of months   best chart of the day Martin

Yup just thinking that. Checked the models this morning and Joaquin looked like it was going to miss us and if anything do us a favour by inflating some HP. 

Looked back tonight and it's either iffy (GFS) or really iffy (ECM).

Be nice if things trended back to settled for the end of the week and weekend

Major correction from ecm opp this evening things starting to get interesting