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Hungry Tiger
08 October 2015 09:49:44


 


Don't worry Caz. After a warm three days it looks like cooling off considerably over the next week or so with cool nights and days.


The CET stands at 12.34C up to and including today by my calculations.


However, the latest output suggests this figure could fall to 10.65C by the 21st. That would be 0.29C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.61C below the 1981-2010 mean. So I think we have just seem a temporary warm blip in what has been a fairly lengthy spell of cool weather. The colder conditions are set to return.


41 of the last 58 days have recorded a CET below average. 32 of those 41 days have been more than 1C below average.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Amazing stats there.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
08 October 2015 11:10:40

Met Office Hadley            12.6c.        Anomaly       0.3c.   Provisional to  7th.


Metcheck                        12.06c.      Anomaly       1.35c.


Netweather                     12.85c.      Anomaly      2.46c.


Clevedon Weather            13.1c        Anomaly      -0.3c.


Mount Sorrel                    12.5c.       Anomaly       1.7c.


My Mean                           12.5c.      Anomaly       0.0c.





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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 October 2015 20:53:43


Don't worry Caz. After a warm three days it looks like cooling off considerably over the next week or so with cool nights and days.


The CET stands at 12.34C up to and including today by my calculations.


However, the latest output suggests this figure could fall to 10.65C by the 21st. That would be 0.29C below the 1971-2000 mean and 0.61C below the 1981-2010 mean. So I think we have just seem a temporary warm blip in what has been a fairly lengthy spell of cool weather. The colder conditions are set to return.


41 of the last 58 days have recorded a CET below average. 32 of those 41 days have been more than 1C below average.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

  Thanks for the reassurance GW!  By your forecast, I won't be too far off the mark and you're usually right.  I feel much better now! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Darren S
09 October 2015 09:49:56

Interestingly, I see that, based on the provisional CET figures, 6th October was 16.3°C, making it the warmest day since 26th August!

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
ARTzeman
09 October 2015 11:21:27

Met Office Hadley        12.03c.       Anomaly     0.1c.   provisional  to 8th.


Metcheck                    11.87c.       Anomaly     1.36c.


Netweather                 12.59c.       Anomaly     2.2c.


Clevedon Weather        13.0c.        Anomaly    -0.7c.


Mount Sorrel                11.9c.        Anomaly     1.5c.


My Mean                      12.4c.        Anomaly    -0.1c.     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 October 2015 20:53:31


Interestingly, I see that, based on the provisional CET figures, 6th October was 16.3°C, making it the warmest day since 26th August!


Originally Posted by: Darren S 

I reckon that's probably due to the high night time temps.  We've had some relatively mild nights and the air hasn't really cooled off much.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
09 October 2015 21:25:53


Interestingly, I see that, based on the provisional CET figures, 6th October was 16.3°C, making it the warmest day since 26th August!


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


My calculations get to 15.8C but that still makes it warmer than any day in September.


Mostly down to the high minimum CET of 13.2C as Caz rightly suggests. That is the joint 5th highest minimum CET for 6th October on record:


6th Oct 1990 13.8C
6th Oct 1921 13.4C
6th Oct 1916 13.4C
6th Oct 1941 13.4C
6th Oct 1920 13.2C
6th Oct 2015 13.2C


Nowhere near the all time highest October minimum CET of 15.2C set in 2005.

Global Warming
09 October 2015 21:31:27

The minimum CET has regularly been 3-4C below average this month notwithstanding the exceptionally high figure recorded on the 6th. Here are the coldest minimums this month and the anomaly in brackets:


9th  4.2C (-4.6C)
2nd 4.5C (-3.9C)
8th  4.7C (-3.2C)
4th  4.8C (-3.6C)
3rd  4.8C (-3.4C)

ARTzeman
10 October 2015 11:34:35

Met Office Hadley                12.2c       Anomaly      0.1c.   provisional to 9th.


Metcheck                            11.71c.    Anomaly      1.21c.


Netweather                         12.44c.    Anomaly      2.04c.


Clevedon Weather               12.9c.      Anomaly      -0.8c.


Mount  Sorrel                      11.7c.      Anomaly      1.3c.


My     Mean                         12.4c.      Anomaly     -0.1c.  


     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
11 October 2015 10:18:39

10.0C here so far, which is +0.1

North York Moors weather 
ARTzeman
11 October 2015 10:52:54

Met Office Hadley            12.1c.        Anomaly       -0.0c.   Provisional to 10th.


Metcheck                        11.68c.      Anomaly        1.17c.


Netweather                     12.32c.      Anomaly        1.93c.


Clevedon Weather            12.9c.       Anomaly       -0.8c.


Mount  Sorrel                   11.7c.       Anomaly        1.3c.


My   Mean                        12.2c.       Anomaly       -0.3c.


 


My Annual   11.3c.   Difference 5.6c.


          





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
12 October 2015 11:03:41

Met Office Hadley             12.1c.        Anomaly       0.1c.   Provisional to 11th.


Metcheck                         11.45c.      Anomaly       0.94c.


Netweather                      12.24c.      Anomaly       1.85c.


Clevedon Weather             12.8c.       Anomaly        0.9c.


Mount     Sorrel                  11.5c.      Anomaly       1.1c.


My    Mean                         12.2c.      Anomaly      -0.3c.               





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Others just get wet.
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Stormchaser
12 October 2015 13:48:08

That CET is going to slide big-time over the coming week or so... I'm glad to be near the bottom of the pack for this month.


Had I followed the model guidance I would have aimed higher. The final GFS op runs of the month had the CET at close to 13.5*C up to the 11th! 


So following my instincts seems to be working out rather well so far. Funny how that works.

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ARTzeman
12 October 2015 14:48:02

We may have chose the right one....





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Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 October 2015 19:14:48


That CET is going to slide big-time over the coming week or so... I'm glad to be near the bottom of the pack for this month.


Had I followed the model guidance I would have aimed higher. The final GFS op runs of the month had the CET at close to 13.5*C up to the 11th! 


So following my instincts seems to be working out rather well so far. Funny how that works.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

There you go then your gut is certainly proving to work better than the models.  Glad I followed my gut and went low too. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Hungry Tiger
12 October 2015 19:42:18


There you go then your gut is certainly proving to work better than the models.  Glad I followed my gut and went low too. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I went low as well - Hope it was low enough with 10.2C.


Some went even lower than that.


 


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 October 2015 20:47:57


I went low as well - Hope it was low enough with 10.2C.


Some went even lower than that.


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Yes, I noticed I'm in good company at the cooler end of the table but I went a little higher with 10.3c and I'm now wondering if it was low enough.  Still, we are a third of the way into the month with a couple of degrees to play with, so I'll remain forever the optimist! 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Global Warming
12 October 2015 20:50:34

Lowest CET return since 14 May today at 8.7C.


Staying cool for the foreseeable future although significant cloud amounts may help to keep the minimum temperatures a little higher than they have been of late. Maximums will be disappointing. If the skies do clear at night then the CET will really crash.


Currently my CET estimate stands at 11.48C. Currently expecting it to fall about 1C in the next 2 weeks to 10.42C by the 27th. As things currently stand the CET looks like finishing somewhere close to 10C. Plenty of time for this to change though.


A 10C finish would mean the first two months of this Autumn are just colder than 2012. It would be the coldest first two months of Autumn since 1993.

ARTzeman
13 October 2015 11:22:23

Met Office Hadley          11.8c.        Anomaly        -0.1c.         Provisional to 12th.


Metcheck                         11.26c.       Anomaly          0.75c.


Netweather                      11.98c.       Anomaly          1.59c.


Clevedon Weather            12.7c.         Anomaly          -1.0c.


Mount    Sorrel                 11.3c.         Anomaly           0.9c.


My    Mean                       11.9c.         Anomaly          -0.6c.





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
14 October 2015 11:03:43

Met Office Hadley           11.6c.      Anomaly       -0.2c.     Provisional   t0 13th.


Metcheck                       11.8c.       Anomaly         0.57c.


Netweather                    11.77c.     Anomaly         1.38c.


Clevedon Weather           12.5c.      Anomaly         -1.2c.


Mount   Sorrel                 11.1c.      Anomaly          0.7c.


My     Mean                     11.6c.      Anomaly         -0.9c.


 


My Annual    11.2c.   Difference 5.5c.  





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
14 October 2015 19:40:17

I'll be amazed if we aren't well below average again.
9.3C (-0.6) here so far.

North York Moors weather 
ARTzeman
15 October 2015 13:36:15

Met Office  Hadley          11.4c.       Anomaly      -0.3c.   Provisional   to  14th.


Metcheck                       10.96c.     Anomaly       0.45c.


Netweather                    11.55c.     Anomaly       1.16c.


Clevedon Weather           12.4c.      Anomaly        1.3c.


Mount Sorrel                   11.0c.      Anomaly        0.6c.


My Mean                         11.4c.      Anomaly        -1.1c.


 


       





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 October 2015 20:13:58

It's falling steadily now. Although if our local weather is anything to go by, the night time minima are being kept up by cloud cover, otherwise it would be falling too quickly for my liking.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
16 October 2015 11:40:21

Met Office Hadley          11.2c.          Anomaly        -0.4c.      Provisional 15th.


Metcheck                      10.94c.         Anomaly          0.4c..      Now Reading


Netweather                   11.45c.         Anomaly          1.06c.     Now Reading


Clevedon Weather         12.4c.          Anomaly         -1.3c        Provisional


Mount    Sorrel               11.0c.          Anomaly          0.6c.       Now Reading


My    Mean                     11.2c.          Anomaly         -1.3c.      Provisional 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
16 October 2015 22:38:39

The CET is now down to just 10.85C by my calculations.


However, from here on in to the end of the month it looks like temperatures will be a little above average generally. This is largely down to milder nights. So the CET may only drift down to 10.67C by the end of the month, i.e. little change from where it is currently at. If we do see more in the way of clear skies then obviously that number could come down somewhat.


Looking at analogue years the CET continues to track 1957 very closely and has done since around April. We are also tracking 1987 quite closely as well since around April. Both were fairly strong El Nino years, the Nino peaking later in the 1957/8 event than it did in 1987/8. Both were positive QBO winters as well. So a good match for this year. Sun spots were high in 1957 whereas in 1987 they were similar to the current position. However, 1957 saw the colder winter.

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