http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

Some proper cold building out east though.

Wet in the south and southwest.

So, possibly a good first-half seasonal prognosis for Scottish ski-resorts but not so good for snow fancying southerners.

Indeed, it could be irritatingly 'chilly yet not snowy' for the south, rather like it was at times last year.

Worryingly, a typical El Nino type North Atlantic pattern also favours a positive NAO during Dec and Jan. However... there are some unusual features to the Pacific SST distribution with this event - most of all an extra band of considerably warmer than average temps extending west from the U.S. Pacific coastline. This is different to 'The Blob' which was in fine form to the west of Canada earlier this year but has recently weakened considerably due in large part to atmospheric patterns driven by the El Nino event. It's a large and strong enough anomaly to potentially change the wavelength of the Rossby wave activity generated (trough-ridge combinations) in the region compared to that which was observed during the otherwise very comparable 82-83 and 97-98 'super' El Nino events.

Our current event has a very good chance of becoming the strongest ever observed, as unusually strong westerly wind bursts for so late in the year drive a final uptick in SST anomalies. This in itself takes us into uncharted waters, and we are sent further still by the fact that this event has displayed some of the 'hybrid' central/eastern Pacific El Nino characteristics seen in the 82-83, but not all of them, and with the central component considerably stronger (i.e. central Pacific anomalies rival eastern Pacific anomalies more closely in 2015 than seen in 82-83).

Coupled with the now-usual uncertainties associated with low Arctic sea ice and solar activity (the recent solar maximum has proved a bit feeble), long range forecasting is up against even greater odds than usual. Perhaps the greatest level of uncertainty relative to computing power that has ever been known!

Next week is looking very mild with a southerly flow and daytime temperatures typically 14-17c for most the country. Always the chance of rain at times, especially in the west. The brightest weather in the east. Not bad for a week off with the kids for half term. 

Not a bad time of year to put up with mild crud, providing the cold pool to our east builds and becomes entrenched.

I would rather have mild now and proper cold in December/Jan, than unseasonably cold weather now followed by mild crud for the rest of the winter as usually happens.

Yes looking very usable for many areas with coolish nights and mellow days.

Indeed. Quite benign and typically boring. Already bored at looking the model output and we aren't even out of October. Zzzzzzz.

Indeed Mike.

ECM and Met, GFS looking pretty changeable even if it is quite mild with rain from time to time for most.

I remember last Halloween was so Mild, I think we got to 19/20*c here!! ...hoping it helps with my CET prediction this month 

Seems to me that in recent years we have had to put up with mild crud at this time of year then more of it in the winter. The only year out of the last four when we didn't get this in October was 2012 which was then followed by the only winter to have anything remotely resembling proper winter weather.

It really is an awful outlook for next week. Southerly winds are horrible at this time of year and I'm glad to be heading to the Canaries for a fortnight to miss what seems likely to be one of the dullest weeks of the year with mild cloudy nights and average cloudy days 

This has been another dud October that looks like exceeding the long term average rainfall here and has been dire for cold even by recent standards. Looks like the first not to drop below 2C here since 2011 and the first since 2009 with no single figure maxes. The lowest max in 2013 was 9.4C, in 2014 9.6C and this year 10.5C. Just incredible to have no sub-9C max for three successive October's. Doubt it's ever happened before.

Surprised to hear you say that Aberdeen has probably had above rainfall this month. This month has been pretty dry where I live over the piece, and in spite of the mostly decent weather we've had, it hasn't been overly mild for much of the time. A better October overall thus far compared to some recent ones I've seen.