theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
23 October 2015 23:28:30

Here's an IR image for you :)


 


Embedded image permalink

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
24 October 2015 06:37:29


 


I had a bit of Banter with Liam Dutton on twitter about this :P


I made the point that an 879mb centre in the E pacific probably corresponds to something closer to 850mb in the west which is a full 20mb lower than Tip. 


My reconinng is, its the most powerful storm of all time, and beats Tip by at least 10mph.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


its not though as hurricane Nancy had stronger winds

Chiltern Blizzard
24 October 2015 07:17:20


 


 


If only it was only squared, it's actually cubed, twice the speed = eight times the power


 


way i think of it is getting hit by a cube of air on a conveyor belt, at twice the speed that cube has v^2 the energy


but at twice the speed, more (two in this example) of those cubes of air can hit you in the same time (power is energy / time) as one did previously, so the power is cubed


 


http://www.iowaenergycenter.org/wind-energy-manual/wind-and-wind-power/wind-speed-and-power/


Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


Thanks... So 8 times as powerful as a 100mph storm!  Crazy!


 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Saint Snow
24 October 2015 08:24:32


I think it will collapse like an old wooden shed as soon as it gets anywhere inland.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


 


and the winner is....



 


The residents must be hugely relieved, and I'm glad there's been minimal if any loss of life, but as a meteorological event it turned out to be a bit of a damp squib.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
24 October 2015 08:30:05

The usual modern media circus, and spinning () it as a worst-storm-evah-because-global-warming event ... went a bit wrong ... again.

North York Moors weather 
doctormog
24 October 2015 08:33:24
Meteorologically it has been fascinating Saint. Some of the strongest winds and deepest SLP with fastest intensification on record? It was always forecast to weaken quickly after it reached inland as it loses its "fuel source" (warm water) and hits unfavourable mountain conditions. To do otherwise would essentially defy the laws of physics. Ironically and worryingly the combination of mountainous terrain and torrential rain (and maybe even volcanic ash in the region of Colima) could as yet cause serious problems.

Fascinating and I would guess would prompt a few research projects into its intensification. (El Niño?)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Essan
24 October 2015 10:20:48


The residents must be hugely relieved, and I'm glad there's been minimal if any loss of life, but as a meteorological event it turned out to be a bit of a damp squib.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I wouldn't call 16 feet of rain in 24 hours a damp squib! 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/24/the-latest-on-hurricane-patricia/


(or even 500mm for that matter - assume the MetO have made a mistake)

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
doctormog
24 October 2015 10:32:48
That would be a very wet squib surely?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
24 October 2015 11:15:21


 


its not though as hurricane Nancy had stronger winds


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Its like the Libya world temperature record, not reliable.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
24 October 2015 11:16:37


The usual modern media circus, and spinning () it as a worst-storm-evah-because-global-warming event ... went a bit wrong ... again.


Originally Posted by: four 


 


Except it was the worst storm ever


And yes Global warming helped with that, the SSTs were record high in that area which helped cause this amazing storm.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
24 October 2015 11:18:55


 


Its like the Libya world temperature record, not reliable.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Not reliable because it used older recording equipment true, but if this is the case then surely all records pre 60/70's should be dismissed, should they not?

Quantum
24 October 2015 11:21:15


 


Not reliable because it used older recording equipment true, but if this is the case then surely all records pre 60/70's should be dismissed, should they not?


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Arguably yes, just as the Libya record was dismissed.


In reality Nancy was unlikely to have had winds greater than 180mph.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
24 October 2015 11:21:57


 


 


Except it was the worst storm ever


And yes Global warming helped with that, the SSTs were record high in that area which helped cause this amazing storm.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I didn't know that the SSTs were at a record high off the west of Mexico. Got a link?

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
24 October 2015 11:30:54


 


I didn't know that the SSTs were at a record high off the west of Mexico. Got a link?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Looking at this again, I think I might have this wrong; the sources I am reading say 'near record', so my apologies for misreading that. Also the sources arn't even that reliable so I retract that. However reliable sources such as below do acknowledge the link between Patricia and global warming especially in regard to well above avg SSTs


http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-hurricane-patricia-quickly-became-a-monster-storm/


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
24 October 2015 11:33:34
Yes, the SSTs are above average so that would certainly have helped "fuel" Patricia. I was in the region in the first half of 1998 (at Puerto Vallarta) and I remember the warmth of the Pacific (in the low 30s). It felt very pleasant!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Essan
24 October 2015 12:36:54

What is remarkable is not Particia itself, but the sheer number of large (Cat4+) storms this year.

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Quantum
25 October 2015 17:14:03

False colour image of Patricia


 


Embedded image permalink


 


False colour composite image!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
29 October 2015 16:34:25

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/northern-arabian/2015/Tropical-Cyclone-Chapala


 


Very unusual storm, in fact its weird that the only TC on the planet at the moment is from the weakest official basin. Not only that but it could develop into a catogary 4 and poses a landfall risk


 


Might be worth ordering satellite data and doing some images of it. 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
29 October 2015 16:37:32


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/northern-arabian/2015/Tropical-Cyclone-Chapala


 


Very unusual storm, in fact its weird that the only TC on the planet at the moment is from the weakest official basin. Not only that but it could develop into a catogary 4 and poses a landfall risk


 


Might be worth ordering satellite data and doing some images of it. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Those pirates better beware



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
29 October 2015 17:26:47


 


 


Those pirates better beware



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Geographically you are a bit out saint snow, Somalia is a wee bit to the south.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Patrick01
29 October 2015 20:55:27


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/northern-arabian/2015/Tropical-Cyclone-Chapala


 


Very unusual storm, in fact its weird that the only TC on the planet at the moment is from the weakest official basin. Not only that but it could develop into a catogary 4 and poses a landfall risk


 


Might be worth ordering satellite data and doing some images of it. 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


I've been watching this one too Quantum. Looks like it could be drawn up into a system further north and bring widespread rainfall across the empty quarter and up to the Gulf. There have been some pretty beefy storm systems crossing Iran recently which is being blamed on El Nino (rightly or wrongly). This storm may add energy to the next one and lead to some even bigger problems. Slightly O/T but the Iranians have warned of a cold and stormy winter in that part of the world due to El Nino... That suggests a Euro high to me...  


Back to the storm and it'll be interesting to see the effects of an unusually strong system running into the mountains along coastal Oman if it comes to pass. 

Saint Snow
29 October 2015 21:06:05

 


Geographically you are a bit out saint snow, Somalia is a wee bit to the south.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


I was just being facetious, but my geography's sound 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
29 October 2015 23:34:23


 


 


I was just being facetious, but my geography's sound 


 


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Still looks a bit south to me 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 October 2015 14:37:35

Can't believe there isn't more interest in this. Capala is now a catogary 4, and projected to be a cat 5. The strongest arabian TC ever was a bottom level cat 5 so that record is almost guaranteed to drop.


Tropical Cyclone Chapala

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
30 October 2015 19:18:03

Confirmed 2nd strongest arabian cyclone ever, and a good possibility that it will become the strongest ever.


Cmon guys, why does no one post in here anymore :( 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.

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