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Highdownfox
23 October 2015 11:33:44

Fox13 news out of Tampa Florida is reporting that the associated storm surge is estimated to be about 39ft and that the area where landfall is likely has a problem with drainage during lesser storms. Given NHC is only on public advisory 14 the development must have been explosive!!! A monster indeed. Suspect that Patricia will be retired as a name after this as no matter what we may hope for the damage and loss of life will most likely be high.


An overly tidy house is just evidence of a wasted life.
Worthing, West Sussex
idj20
23 October 2015 12:21:46

That ear-popping central pressure, that must be like having the 850's dragged down to sea level.

Even though the prediction doesn't highlight it with Patricia, I wonder if it is possible for a Pacific hurricane to become a Caribbean one by crossing eastwards over Mexico, even if the mountains does cause a system to weaken while over land but then regain strength back to as a full blown hurricane once over the Gulf. I think Mitch did that a few years ago (roughly in the early 2000s from memory).


Folkestone Harbour. 
Arcus
23 October 2015 12:54:30


That ear-popping central pressure, that must be like having the 850's dragged down to sea level.

Even though the prediction doesn't highlight it with Patricia, I wonder if it is possible for a Pacific hurricane to become a Caribbean one by crossing eastwards over Mexico, even if the mountains does cause a system to weaken while over land but then regain strength back to as a full blown hurricane once over the Gulf. I think Mitch did that a few years ago (roughly in the early 2000s from memory).


Originally Posted by: idj20 


A few have done it over the years, both Pacific to Atlantic, and vice-versa:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic%E2%80%93Pacific_crossover_hurricanes


 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
idj20
23 October 2015 12:58:59


 


A few have done it over the years, both Pacific to Atlantic, and vice-versa:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic%E2%80%93Pacific_crossover_hurricanes


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 



Cheers for that! I was starting to think that it would be a natural impossibility, like decent weather on a Bank Holiday Monday.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Quantum
23 October 2015 13:44:29

Glad to see some activity in here.


 


Patricia is the most intense pacific hurricane ever, by an astounding depth of 22mb lower than the previous! 


Wind speeds are currently sustained 200 MPH. I cannot believe this, its absolutely insane.


 I mean holy shit, we actually have a chance of beating Tip. 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Arcus
23 October 2015 14:25:48

The saving grace for many may well be the compact form of the hurricane wind fields. The hurricane force winds are in a relatively small area around the eye (30 miles from the centre - the average for this strength of hurricane is about 50 miles), and the area of tropical storm force winds extends to about 175 miles from the centre (the average being about 300 miles).


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Saint Snow
23 October 2015 14:40:38


The saving grace for many may well be the compact form of the hurricane wind fields. The hurricane force winds are in a relatively small area around the eye (30 miles from the centre - the average for this strength of hurricane is about 50 miles), and the area of tropical storm force winds extends to about 175 miles from the centre (the average being about 300 miles).


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


It would have been interesting if it'd have made landfall around 2,000 miles north!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
nsrobins
23 October 2015 15:12:59


The saving grace for many may well be the compact form of the hurricane wind fields. The hurricane force winds are in a relatively small area around the eye (30 miles from the centre - the average for this strength of hurricane is about 50 miles), and the area of tropical storm force winds extends to about 175 miles from the centre (the average being about 300 miles).


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


i agree Ben but with 250mph gusts it's like being hit by a high end EF5 tornado that is 30miles wide 😧


When put into that context I wouldn't want to be within 100miles of it to be honest.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chelsea
23 October 2015 15:15:25

Any links to live webcam feeds?

wingman
23 October 2015 15:25:20


Any links to live webcam feeds?


Originally Posted by: Chelsea 


This one could get very interesting as the day progresses.


http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1


 

nsrobins
23 October 2015 15:34:48
http://webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=x_GShxXtLx4&streams=1 

Is this he same one?
I don't expect the camera to survive into the afternoon
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Jonesy
23 October 2015 15:39:39


 


This one could get very interesting as the day progresses.


http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1


 


Originally Posted by: wingman 


That's a great webcam feed, thanks 


This one is good also, can see it in the distance rolling in http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=MT42afoxuDI&streams=1


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Islander
23 October 2015 15:49:21


 


That's a great webcam feed, thanks 


This one is good also, can see it in the distance rolling in http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=MT42afoxuDI&streams=1


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


 


Why are people still swimming in the sea?? Run... run away quick!!


Guernsey
Jonesy
23 October 2015 15:52:46


 


 


Why are people still swimming in the sea?? Run... run away quick!!


Originally Posted by: Islander 


God knows and can you see the lifeguard in the right corner lol....can't see the webcam lasting long


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Chelsea
23 October 2015 15:53:30

[quote=wingman;728959]


 


This one could get very interesting as the day progresses.


http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=tUgyOFEI8-Q&streams=1


 


Thanks. Will keep a check on it as the evening progresses

Rich mt
23 October 2015 15:55:40

I belive this web cam with the people swimming is actually at Parque de Xcaret which is in Cancun a long way from the hurricane
Poole, Dorset
Jonesy
23 October 2015 15:58:36

I belive this web cam with the people swimming is actually at Parque de Xcaret which is in Cancun a long way from the hurricane

Originally Posted by: Rich mt 


 


Is this the one we should be watching? quality not too great http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/videos.php?v=dWT3kRX-eiQ&streams=1


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
wingman
23 October 2015 15:58:54

I belive this web cam with the people swimming is actually at Parque de Xcaret which is in Cancun a long way from the hurricane

Originally Posted by: Rich mt 


On my MAC the link takes you to the Puerto Vallarta web cam showing the seafront there, which is forecast to be right in the path of the storm.


If the link takes you to the main page then look for Puerto Vallarta under 'Cameras en Streaming' ;-)


Oh, and no sign of anyone swimming here, eerily quiet in fact.


 

Goldieno1
23 October 2015 15:59:27

Arcus
23 October 2015 16:05:36
Current guidance doesn't take the strongest winds over Puerto Vallarta, although it does look getting pretty breezy there!
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jonesy
23 October 2015 16:18:09

Current guidance doesn't take the strongest winds over Puerto Vallarta, although it does look getting pretty breezy there!

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


It be funny if this was one them webcams that just keeps repeating itself with old recordings lol


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Phil G
23 October 2015 16:38:20
Picked up this link from another website. Assume this is near the event.

Arcus
23 October 2015 16:49:05

Picked up this link from another website. Assume this is near the event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9QogL9IyE

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


Ixtapa might be a bit too far south !  Manzanillo looks like being in a dangerous location according to forecasts, but I can't find webcams for that region.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Jonesy
23 October 2015 17:04:56


 


Ixtapa might be a bit too far south !  Manzanillo looks like being in a dangerous location according to forecasts, but I can't find webcams for that region.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Is this is? take a little while to load but it works http://myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !

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