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Arcus
23 October 2015 17:10:37


 


 


Is this is? take a little while to load but it works http://myearthcam.com/lamanzanilla


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 


Good spot - looks like being right in the firing line. Could all change of course!


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Hungry Tiger
23 October 2015 19:30:13

Sorry if I've missed it - but what is the central pressure of Hurricane Patricia at the moment.


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
23 October 2015 19:32:40

Just seen it 880 mb.


The lowest recorded sea level pressure is apparently 868.


I don't mind if anyone corrects me on that one :-)


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


doctormog
23 October 2015 19:40:18


Just seen it 880 mb.


The lowest recorded sea level pressure is apparently 868.


I don't mind if anyone corrects me on that one :-)


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


I thought it was Typhoon Tip at 870mb in 1979. As far as I know this is the strongest hurricane on record in terms of sustained wind speed and lowest SLP. I believe there have been a small number of typhoons with lower SLPs.


Hungry Tiger
23 October 2015 19:49:05


 


I thought it was Typhoon Tip at 870mb in 1979. As far as I know this is the strongest hurricane on record in terms of sustained wind speed and lowest SLP. I believe there have been a small number of typhoons with lower SLPs.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I recognise that name there Doc now you mention it. I think that's the one I was on about :-)


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Arcus
23 October 2015 19:52:05


 


I thought it was Typhoon Tip at 870mb in 1979. As far as I know this is the strongest hurricane on record in terms of sustained wind speed and lowest SLP. I believe there have been a small number of typhoons with lower SLPs.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


879 for Patricia on latest estimates, Tip was 870. In terms of wind speeds Patricia exceeds Tip, but it's a very localised wind field. Of course it's difficult to compare current data against historical data when we have far more accurate measurement cycles now.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Chiltern Blizzard
23 October 2015 19:58:55
200mph sustained winds! Incredible, even more so when you consider that (unless I've got my physics very wrong) such winds have 4 times the power of mere 100mph winds - if we get the briefest gust of which we think we've had a major storm!
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Quantum
23 October 2015 19:59:44


 


879 for Patricia on latest estimates, Tip was 870. In terms of wind speeds Patricia exceeds Tip, but it's a very localised wind field. Of course it's difficult to compare current data against historical data when we have far more accurate measurement cycles now.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


I can't believe we are having to compare this thing with ridiculously strong typhoons


How did something like this happen in the wrong basin?


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 October 2015 20:06:56

200mph sustained winds! Incredible, even more so when you consider that (unless I've got my physics very wrong) such winds have 4 times the power of mere 100mph winds - if we get the briefest gust of which we think we've had a major storm!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Yeh power scales quadratically to velocity. You double the wind-speed, you quadruple the power dissipated by it.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Bow Echo
23 October 2015 20:07:40

Starting to get breezy at La Manzanilla airport.


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMZO.html


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


noodle doodle
23 October 2015 20:35:28


 


Yeh power scales quadratically to velocity. You double the wind-speed, you quadruple the power dissipated by it.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


If only it was only squared, it's actually cubed, twice the speed = eight times the power


 


way i think of it is getting hit by a cube of air on a conveyor belt, at twice the speed that cube has v^2 the energy


but at twice the speed, more (two in this example) of those cubes of air can hit you in the same time (power is energy / time) as one did previously, so the power is cubed


 


http://www.iowaenergycenter.org/wind-energy-manual/wind-and-wind-power/wind-speed-and-power/

AIMSIR
23 October 2015 20:42:34
I'm sure all those people squatting in fear are?????
Quantum
23 October 2015 20:56:03

I'm gonna make a brave call.


 


This is literally the strongest tropical cyclone ever including all the most powerful typhoons.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 October 2015 21:00:42


 


 


If only it was only squared, it's actually cubed, twice the speed = eight times the power


 


way i think of it is getting hit by a cube of air on a conveyor belt, at twice the speed that cube has v^2 the energy


but at twice the speed, more (two in this example) of those cubes of air can hit you in the same time (power is energy / time) as one did previously, so the power is cubed


 


http://www.iowaenergycenter.org/wind-energy-manual/wind-and-wind-power/wind-speed-and-power/


Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 


Doh, thanks for correcting me.


 


That's an embarrassing mistake on my part.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
23 October 2015 21:09:43


I'm gonna make a brave call.


 


This is literally the strongest tropical cyclone ever including all the most powerful typhoons.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Could well be. It is the strongest in this list


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones


Previous strongest were Tip (1979) in the Pacific with 190mph sustained winds and Allen (1980) in the Atlantic also at 190mph

AIMSIR
23 October 2015 21:10:30


I'm gonna make a brave call.


 


This is literally the strongest tropical cyclone ever including all the most powerful typhoons.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I think it will collapse like an old wooden shed as soon as it gets anywhere inland.


I'ts gonna be a bad for those on the coast though.


Especially in rural or poorer areas.


Are there any reports on the Low's latest intensity?.

23 October 2015 21:16:13


 


Could well be. It is the strongest in this list


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones


Previous strongest were Tip (1979) in the Pacific with 190mph sustained winds and Allen (1980) in the Atlantic also at 190mph


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


In fact there is an error in that article because some of the Pacific figures are quoted as 10 minute sustained winds and some at 1 minute sustained.


The previous strongest 1 minute sustained wind was recorded in Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 with a maximum 1 minute wind speed of 196mph


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan

Arcus
23 October 2015 21:18:08


I think it will collapse like an old wooden shed as soon as it gets anywhere inland.


I'ts gonna be a bad for those on the coast though.


Especially in rural or poorer areas.


Are there any reports on the Low's intensity?.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


It's really a question of semantics with regard to "most powerful". In terms of sustained winds around a localised core, it's a record breaker. In terms of SLP in the core, probably not. In terms of storm surge, no. In terms of rainfall, no. In terms of impact it's unlikely to be a record breaker due to it's track. Thankfully we should not see a death toll with this storm into the thousands as per previous "biggies". And yes, it should break up pretty quickly due to topography inland and unfavourable sheer.


 


EDIT: Currently back up to 900mb, and down to 190mph sustained winds.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
pdiddy
23 October 2015 21:24:07
23 October 2015 21:25:17

An impressive fall in central pressure of 110mb in just 30hours from 990mb to 880mb


Bow Echo
23 October 2015 22:10:53

Definitely looking rough in La Manzanila now, looking at the webcam.


 


Oooohhh and the camera has just been blown off its mounting!!


 


And some brave soul has just put it back and cleaned it down!


Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants


picturesareme
23 October 2015 22:39:16


I think it will collapse like an old wooden shed as soon as it gets anywhere inland.


I'ts gonna be a bad for those on the coast though.


Especially in rural or poorer areas.


Are there any reports on the Low's latest intensity?.


Originally Posted by: AIMSIR 


typhoon Nancy had 215mph sustained for 1 minute.


 


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Nancy_(1961)


 


 


 

Quantum
23 October 2015 23:00:23

I've ordered and downloaded sat GOES data from NOAA from earlier.


And now I've managed to process it in GRads.


Embedded image permalink


I'll try and post some more impressive graphics of Patricia!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
23 October 2015 23:02:58


 


Could well be. It is the strongest in this list


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones


Previous strongest were Tip (1979) in the Pacific with 190mph sustained winds and Allen (1980) in the Atlantic also at 190mph


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


I had a bit of Banter with Liam Dutton on twitter about this :P


I made the point that an 879mb centre in the E pacific probably corresponds to something closer to 850mb in the west which is a full 20mb lower than Tip. 


My reconinng is, its the most powerful storm of all time, and beats Tip by at least 10mph.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Saint Snow
23 October 2015 23:28:27

are there any cameras still working now?




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan

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