Its time for another one of these threads. Caveat; my threashold for making these threads is still a small change of these records happening. I'm not saying record high temps are likely, but they are possible.

For the foreseeable future the SE in particular is going to be dominated by S or SE winds, and these winds are not cold (I think this needs to be explicitly pointed out on the eve of winter). 850hpa temps above 10C are going to become common for parts of the SE, meaning surface temperatures getting to 20C are not out of the question.

In particular getting 20C in the first few days of November will break some daily records, and we only need 20.7C to break the all time November record.  

Wouldn't we need higher than 21.7°C (set on 1946) to beat the November record?

Yes we would as per met office

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate-extremes/#?tab=climateExtremes

Aye, 21.7c is the November record.  Certainly some site records are very possible though.

See also http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/28/spooky-heat-for-halloween-weekend/

Out of interest here are 850,s given at that time, rough guide I admit

With charts like these 20c is defo up for grabs maybe even the record. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

I'm wondering whether the first half of November could be the warmest ever. There are a few dippers on the GEFS tonight between 5th - 7th November and then again towards mid Month, however the potential is there.

The core of the warmth appears to be on Saturday 31st October..however there are many days where very warm temperatures could be achieved. 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMD

31st October 2014 was exceptional..had that warmth been matched the following day we would have smashed the November record. Frustratingly we could have a repeat performance this year too.

Based on those thicknesses and the 850 and 925 progged temps and assuming a moderate SE'ly continental feed, sunshine and efficient DALR..there is no reason why 22-23c cannot be achieved somewhere. 

What are the odds of having two consecutive Halloweens with temperatures in the low 20's ? 

The warmest upper air still appears to occur on 31st October, however cloud may scupper the true potential. Sunday 1st November appears to be the day to watch with plenty of residual warm air aloft, a dry continental influence and sunshine.

The models wholly under-estimated maximum temperatures by something like 3 or 4 degrees on that exceptional day last year. The November record is now up for grabs IMO. 

It's certainly not very often that you see the 564 line over the UK in November!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Its Spooky.

I wonder if by Sunday we'll see you in that Hot Tub doing the week ahead forecast next to a pile of Pumpkins 

That warm damp air will encourage a lot of bugs about, cold, flu's etc.

We need deep cold to kill the lot.

Now that's an idea mate ! 

Not sure about that, influenza thrives in cold conditions ; in fact the heat and UVB of summer is probably a secondary reason that summer illness is less common than winter illness (the primary reason is to do with people more likely to be in close confinement for longer periods).  

Seems that the model output's general agreement for a dry and mild Guy Fawkes night could well be verified. Even though there are still room for fine tunings since it is still a clear week away, it's not bad going for something that was picked up from ten days away - a very long shot in terms of medium range forecasting.

The longer this mild spell does continue, the better in terms of heating costs. Still wouldn't say no to a fortnight of real snow and ice but we'll think more on that as we go into winter proper (January and February).

I'm already a member of some sort of cold/virus,  sore throat and back of the nose feels burning, no energy either but will attempt a couple of JD Honey Later.

My Mrs said I need to build myself up or the winter, I said what sit about on my lazy ass eating cupcakes and dunking marsh mellows into a hot chocolate....didn't go down to well 

Indeed. Influenza is thought not perform well in high humidity. The virus is most stable in cold and dry air. 

A lot of murky low cloud plauging much of the UK at the moment but it's trying to improve from the south. Certainly plenty of 'cracks' appearing in the cloud cover.

It was a bit balmy feeling last night, more like a night in May than the end of October!

It was 17.5°C at Kinloss (and Lossie) at 6am. 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3066.html

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/world-weather/weather-stations/obsid/3068.html

The clouds have melted away here and the temperature is rising nicely, more than halfway through the 10's now 

The 12Z charts show the warm air over the UK.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=4&month=11&year=1946&hour=12&map=0&mode=0

Re Darren's post below - 564dam nowhere near the UK when the record was set, what can be achieved with the warmer air aloft?