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Retron
31 October 2015 12:15:35


Re Darren's post below - 564dam nowhere near the UK when the record was set, what can be achieved with the warmer air aloft?


 

Originally Posted by: nouska 


It's still there for today and by tomorrow much of England and Wales will be under >564dam air:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif


Truly remarkable stuff.


The risk of fog is quite high though, with light winds and high dewpoints. Indeed, there's a weather warning out for fog tonight for here and the forecast for Monday just says "FOG" for most of the day!


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10skvs08#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1446422400


If fog persists there's no chance of getting very high temperatures down here. Somewhere with a breeze, perhaps a Foehn effect, would in my view be the place to watch!


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
31 October 2015 12:22:57
Actually, looking at it - I think we're going to see a thickness record in places, if nothing else!

For November, it's 563dam for Lancashire / Cheshire plain.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/154 

The 564 line will be to the north of Cheshire tomorrow evening!
Leysdown, north Kent
Charmhills
31 October 2015 12:30:13

Despite the 564 dam, I'll doubt we're feeling it at the surface due to low cloud and dense fog from tomorrow onwards.


Next week temps slowly begin to drop away anyway with some rain by Wednesday.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Stormchaser
31 October 2015 13:52:02

Cheerful as ever Charmhills 


 


Stunning down here now, with temps in the high teens and feeling like more than 20*C in light winds and clear sunshine.


Tomorrow it is all about the fog. GFS has been keen on quick dispersal by the southerly breeze but I've seen the model fail miserably with that before, usually due to underestimating 'shallow layer' cooling at the surface as cool air pools.

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Hungry Tiger
31 October 2015 14:18:14

This is incredible.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

Gavin S. FRmetS.
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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 October 2015 15:34:29


This is incredible.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


If the winds were coming from the SW I'm sure we could see 25C, as it is even 20C is a struggle.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
31 October 2015 15:41:21


Tomorrow it is all about the fog. GFS has been keen on quick dispersal by the southerly breeze but I've seen the model fail miserably with that before, usually due to underestimating 'shallow layer' cooling at the surface as cool air pools.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


What are you using as your GFS fog parameter?

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Quantum
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31 October 2015 16:30:47


WRF has us hitting 20C tommorow, I recon you could add 1C to that; so 21C is on the cards. The record is under threat.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
doctormog
31 October 2015 16:34:24
Remember you'd need nearly 22 (or at least 21.8°C to beat the November record).
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Quantum
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31 October 2015 16:47:11

Remember you'd need nearly 22 (or at least 21.8°C to beat the November record).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


True, but with a WRF prediction >20C it must be at least greater than 20% probability the record will fall

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Charmhills
31 October 2015 17:16:50

Highs of a very mild 15c here in the afternoon low level sunshine.


Nothing unusual though.


Temps falling away now, 11c under clear sky's.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
31 October 2015 17:24:47

Think the top temp for today was 19C, probably in the top 5 warmest haloweens on record.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
01 November 2015 04:45:36


Think the top temp for today was 19C, probably in the top 5 warmest haloweens on record.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


From the MetO site:










Highest maximum temperatureHampton Water Works19.5 °C

 

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
01 November 2015 06:38:29

Morning!  Happy All Hallows Day!


Somewhere in North Wales or North Devon might be favoured for a 20c today but that's still short the of 21.8 required.


It is possible the record could be exceeded , it will though require long spells of unbroken November sunlight from 7am to 5pm.


Most likely a close but no cigar scenario.  Our best shot was 2014 but we peaked one day too soon.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Tim A
01 November 2015 07:17:24
No fog here so a promising start (although it could still appear) . 9.4c and clear.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Jonesy
01 November 2015 07:46:16

No fog here so a promising start (although it could still appear) . 9.4c and clear.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


 


Quite dense fog here but it does look like the sun is trying to break through, looks set to be a day of cloud here and dull, nothing special.

Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Twister
01 November 2015 09:29:39
For all this talk of mild temperatures, I recorded a low of 2.6C last night!

Unless the dense fog lifts here, this corner of the UK will unlikely feel the effects of that toasty warm air high above us.
Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL
Thunder 2016: 12 (Apr 3,13; May 21; Jun 8,11,17,22,23,25, Jul 2,12, Aug 26)
Winter 2015/6: Snowfalls: 10 | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 17 (0.5cm)) | Air frosts: 39
Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)
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four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2015 09:41:38

I wasn't expecting much from this here, however no fog so today is looking good with something of a foehn already I suspect and 13.6C

North York Moors weather 
WMB
  • WMB
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2015 10:51:52

15.4c here with some intervals.  Feels warmer than most of spring and summer here!

Hungry Tiger
01 November 2015 11:09:14

Amazing day - Feels more like June rather than November.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Whether Idle
01 November 2015 11:30:45

Both yesterday and today sunnier than forecast.  A stunner here, redolent of early September.  If the sun can persist across wide swathes of the UK, the record is not out of the question!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gusty
01 November 2015 11:41:13

16.7c here in sparkling calm sunshine. Remarkable. 


30.3c in the Polytunnel 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Quantum
  • Quantum
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
01 November 2015 11:44:31

4C until record falls (current maximum 18C)

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Global Warming
01 November 2015 12:48:05

The date record has now been equalled. North and West Wales is the place to be this afternoon. Some great place names in this list:


Gogerddan 19.7C
Swyddffynnon 19.4C
Whitechurch 19.3C
Trawscoed 18.9C
Porthmadog 18.8C

ARTzeman
01 November 2015 13:06:51

Can only pull of  11.0c in the fog....





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Others just get wet.
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