theweatheroutlook

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Essan
30 October 2015 19:48:10


Confirmed 2nd strongest arabian cyclone ever, and a good possibility that it will become the strongest ever.


Cmon guys, why does no one post in here anymore :( 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 



My main interest in this - although the trajectory is different - is that it was probably a storm like this that gave rise to the story most commonly known as Noahs Flood.    Imagine a bronze age society who had never experienced such a storm?   

(The Mesopotamian story of Atrahasis (precursor of Noah) describes not just torrential rain, but terrific winds and a storm surge ....  )

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
ozone_aurora
30 October 2015 19:49:52

Not about tropical revolving storms (which greatly interests me), but considering it is a tropical thread, I thought I post this important news here. The worlds driest desert has had some rain! 


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/29/the-driest-place-on-earth-is-covered-in-pink-flowers-after-a-crazy-year-of-rain/.


 

Essan
30 October 2015 20:52:28


Not about tropical revolving storms (which greatly interests me), but considering it is a tropical thread, I thought I post this important news here. The worlds driest desert has had some rain! 


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/29/the-driest-place-on-earth-is-covered-in-pink-flowers-after-a-crazy-year-of-rain/.


 


Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



To be fair, the rain was earlier this year.   But some great pictures

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Patrick01
01 November 2015 15:09:36

http://www.buyemen.com/news15020.html


Chapala is still churning away in the Arabian Sea - above link (arabic) has a few pics from Socotra of the rough seas around the island. The cyclone is currently passing approx 140km to the north of the island. 


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0415.gif


Looks like Mukalla in Yemen could be in the firing line. It seems to be built around a narrow estuary that has been canalised at the coast - not sure whether that would provide more protection for the city or not? Time will tell I suppose... 


http://english.hadhramaut.info/App_images/Large/Mukalla%20Sunset.jpg


It is now likely to dissipate rapidly after landfall and its effects probably won't be felt far beyond Yemen and perhaps southern areas of Asir/Hijaz in Saudi.

Quantum
02 November 2015 01:11:24

Howabout that, saint snow was right


Tropical Cyclone Chapala


The somali pirates are screwed!


 


Remarkable storm (2nd strongest arabian cyclone ever) and its location is almost unheard of.


 


Plus


 



When do you see a picture like this? Completely empty except the most unlikely basin on the planet!

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Patrick01
02 November 2015 15:17:44

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/deadly-cyclone-chapala-wreaking-havoc-yemeni-waters-151101195831014.html


Fairly detailed article from AlJaz - Mukalla in Yemen expected to receive 7 times its annual average rainfall as Chapala passes through 


 


 

nsrobins
02 November 2015 23:16:01


 


Remarkable storm (2nd strongest arabian cyclone ever) and its location is almost unheard of.


 When do you see a picture like this? Completely empty except the most unlikely basin on the planet!


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


I do believe the title of most unlikely basin on the planet is my ex wife's favourite cake mixing basin that I nicked when I moved out. Never been used since but the thought of her not being able to use it gives me a fair degree of satisfaction 😇🤓


This storm is truly exceptional and that image showing it to be the sole TS on the planet today is even more remarkable.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
John S2
03 November 2015 16:00:30
Saint Snow
03 November 2015 16:10:55


Howabout that, saint snow was right


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Who'd have thunk it?



 


(PS - the second map I posted did show the track skimming the NE tip of Somalia when I posted it)


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Quantum
05 November 2015 20:49:56

You have got to be sodding me


Tropical Cyclone Megh


I just, dont even...

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
07 November 2015 11:49:05

Megh now a category 1 and intensifying rapidly.


 


At current rate of intensification Megh will be a catogary 2 by 4pm.


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Stormchaser
07 November 2015 22:45:18


Megh now a category 1 and intensifying rapidly.


 


At current rate of intensification Megh will be a catogary 2 by 4pm.


 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


 


Now 105 mph cat 2 as of 1800 GMT


Only slight intensification is expected from this point forward, as interaction with the Horn Of Africa is anticipated thereafter:


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Rich mt
07 November 2015 22:48:59

Thanks for your updates Q, been a really interesting time on the tropical/Medicane storm front in recent weeks, I am following with great intrest! P.S on the topic of convective circulating storms im sure i remember reading in the weather log from December 1995 a report of a polar low which created sustained winds of 80 knots at North Rona, Scotland. Belive it was around 24th of December 95.
Poole, Dorset
Quantum
07 November 2015 23:21:38

Thanks for your updates Q, been a really interesting time on the tropical/Medicane storm front in recent weeks, I am following with great intrest! P.S on the topic of convective circulating storms im sure i remember reading in the weather log from December 1995 a report of a polar low which created sustained winds of 80 knots at North Rona, Scotland. Belive it was around 24th of December 95.

Originally Posted by: Rich mt 


Personally I think polar lows should be classified as tropical too!


Anyway polar lows are well documented here by this amateur. 


https://polarlows.wordpress.com/


I'm doing medicanes because the topic seems to have been neglected more (check out this season in the link in my sig)


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Patrick01
08 November 2015 13:20:37

Really amazing that another system has formed, and GFS is already forming a third out towards 180 hrs, again in the same area of the Arabian Sea. Looking at the sat, Socotra could once again receive significant damage. Interesting to also note a TD is due to drift over southern India in the next 24-36 hours, will there be a spate of tropical systems threatening this area too I wonder, and if that happens, will they form waves that could reform and threaten a longer series of storms over the Arabia Sea?


Graphic


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0515.gif


News


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/new-cyclone-megh-takes-aim-at-storm-slammed-yemen/59493/


Sat


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/05A_080530sams.jpg


 


and here's the TD heading for Chennai:


Graphic


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9615.gif


Sat


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/96B_080530sams.jpg

Stormchaser
08 November 2015 13:26:34

I see Megh continues to outperform the forecast, now the second in a row to reach strength equivalent to a major hurricane.


Interaction with the Horn of Africa seems not to trouble the cyclone too much in the latest outlook. It looks to make it a long way through the Arabian Sea before weakening below hurricane strength so the seas will be wild!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
John S2
08 November 2015 21:25:11
Stormchaser
09 November 2015 18:09:28

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3181


Jeff Masters has posted an excellent summary of the current and recent strange goings on across the Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic. Amazingly we have a named storm in the Bahamas at the moment, which really stands out for an El Nino November.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2015 19:59:23


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3181


Jeff Masters has posted an excellent summary of the current and recent strange goings on across the Indian Ocean and Tropical Atlantic. Amazingly we have a named storm in the Bahamas at the moment, which really stands out for an El Nino November.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Where did Kate pop up from? Only a couple of days ago http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane was windiing down as (they said) no further action was expected this season!

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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