Managed to equal the 2000-2014 date record max here today, which effectively makes it 7 in a row from this incredibly warm spell of weather. Hardly surprising when you look across The Channel and find that France has often been up in the 20's this past fortnight!
The date record high minimums have also been slaughtered on 5 nights out of 7 which is impressive in itself. The new records are some 2-3*C above the old! I suspect that if I did have data for the 19th and 20th Centuries somehow, you'd have to go back to at least 1947 to equal the record, perhaps even as far as the late 19th Century based on recent CET stats offered by GW in his informative posts on the subject.
The latest GFS outlook suggests a few more exceptionally mild days and nights to come within the next 10 days, but more intermittently than has been the case this past week. Not one nighttime minimum looks to fall as low as the LTA, though, until around 21st November. The chart does now show the first signs of the dramatic cool down that the models are toying with starting around 10 days from now, but there's enough uncertainty that a milder outcome can't be discounted yet.
I wouldn't be surprised if we did see a notable transition to chilly conditions, only for mild to very mild conditions to make a comeback after some 3-5 days.
Edit: Just looked at the average anomaly for the past 16 days and it comes out at +4.29*C. For the previous 16 it was -0.23*C so we really have seen a change of note, from near average to well above. Roll the days back to early September and it was typically 1 or 2*C colder than the LTA.
Put it all together and it's been a strange autumn in which the temperature hasn't fallen anywhere near as much as it usually does; the 24 hour mean for 1st-11th Nov stands at 11.98 compared to 11.28 for the month of October and 13.24 for September.
So it's cooled off by a little over 1*C, whereas during a typical year the first 10 days of Nov come in 6.5*C cooler than the month of September!
Edited by user
12 November 2015 21:04:50
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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