Start of a 4 day weekend for me ....would be rather chilly to say the least

The ensembles continue to point towards a cooler and rather more unsettled second half of November with more of a polar maritime biaise at times. Even if temperatures return to just below average values in the south an 8 degree drop in typical daytime maxes will be a huge shock to the system.

For the north its a similar story.. if the operational and control runs verified something a little wintry with only fairly modest altitude would occur away from coasts in the period 20th-22nd November. One to watch for the Scottish contingent.

Trending cooler is the buzz word today. 

Very nice ECM this morning is it leading us up the garden path again or are we about to have a significant cold spell? The vortex looks a complete shambles at day 10 and a massive GH almost too good to be true. Let's hope it's onto something.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Looking very unsettled this morning and quite chilly at times between the warm sectors of course and a lot of rain for most.

 That's exactly what I thought a couple of days ago. There are also comparisons to be made with November 1978. 

Steady

A little bit of interest this morning. ECM FI looks chilly with blocking to the west/north west and GFS FI also goes chilly/cold with blocking near Iceland. More runs needed of course but nicer to look at than HP over Europe that's for sure!

Didn't he say that it was zonality all the way just a few days ago?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015111312/gemnh-0-192.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2015111312/navgemnh-0-180.png?13-19

Certainly some hints of a few colder incursions in the next week or so. Wouldn't need to 'tweak' things too much to get something a bit more notable either (cold wise) - although there will be notable weather of some description in any case - mainly wind and rain....

Some serious northern blocking in the 12z runs, especially from ECM.

Something could be afoot ;) 

Whether it has the potential to deliver any serious cold to the UK remains massively open to question, OBVIOUSLY! 

Interesting though when so many people have been so convinced of mild as far as the eye can see. 

Yes , certainly interesting.

Be nice to see a change

Exceptional ECM for the time of year almost 2010 esque. Doesn't get much better than that for the the end of November.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

It really is a great ECM GReenland High , Siberian high and the vortex all over the shop

all good stuff.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Looks good from here

The problem with the ECM is since it's alleged update it's worse than the GFS for over amplifying the pattern, so until we have a cross model consensus I'll remain ultra cautious, more so.

Phew 😮 Almost lost for words there after seeing that lot.  :-O

Sometimes things can change pretty dramatically with the model output at relatively short notice. I remember thinking during the wet November of 2009 that the unsettled pattern we had then would likely continue for much of that December. However there were subtle hints from the models as early as the first few days of December that things would change in a big way around or just after mid-month, and they did.

Early November 2010 was unsettled and not especially cold, but like Dec 2009, when the models first began to pick up on the change that developed towards the end of the month, IIRC they went with in pretty consistently apart from one or two little wobbles at times in FI. What both of those periods had in common was that we got major wintry episodes at a time when probably not that many people were expecting anything like that, especially so in 2010 given that we were still in November!