'Back in the day', that being the 1970s and 1980's, a cold spell around 20 November (I believe coinciding with one of the Buchan Spells) was quite common place.  If memory serves me correctly 77, 78, 80,85,88 all has such episodes.  1988 21 November brought Thundersnow and 6 inches of snow on a Kent Clipper.  I believe that was it for the rest of the winter which was snowless.  Most of the other years listed, it was as if the winter wanted to show some of its cold intent in November before reigniting after Christmas or in the late winter.

Ecm showing a little low zooming across the country at 72 hours. In the next 24 hours its over southern Sweden. One to keep a eye on I think.

Possibly, or it may miss us to the north completely or just delivery a glancing blow with cool crispness and little if any precipitation. It is an interesting picture full of possibilities all the same. 

In Manchester in the late 60s /early 70s, the local radio would consistently report in the 3rd week of November that the Snake Pass (to Sheffield) was closed, being blocked by snow. Summit level 510m., but very exposed

Morning 

The GFS ensembles have trended even colder this morning with good support now for an arctic northerly next weekend. The operational was a cold outlier but demonstrates the possibilities, it certainly made me choke on my morning cup of coffee. This outlier brings 513 dam air and -10c 850Hpa's as far south as Essex.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=EGMC 

Very interesting. 

Yes Steve.  An old style late November chiller looks on the cards.  The questions are:

1.  Will more than the N and NE of Britain see any wintriness from this snap?...and..

2. Will it lead to a mild or a cold winter subsequently?  As I indicated in my post from yesterday, these cold snaps in the last third of November seem to lead to one or the other winter type.

Going from this

To this would please a few

J F F of course

Hi Phil 

1. Northern and eastern Scotland, coastal NE England, North York Moors and possibly Norfolk could see wintriness based on the output.


2. Who knows ? 

What about just plain old average

Not IMBY we dont do well in  northerly ..................just lower temps will do for a start and maybe a frost

Of course every winter will either be cold or mild, perhaps by a very small margin, John.  The comment above was regarding my post from yesterday.  The point of that post was to put forward the notion that a cold snap in the last third of November tended to result in either a  notably colder than average winter or a notably much milder than average winter.  Hope this helps.

Ah cheers, let's hope for the former!

Yes Indeed John.  After the last 2 pretty much snowless winters IMBY I'm ready for a colder winter, if nothing else it can offer respite from the nightmare that was 13-14 with its associated damaging wind and rainfall.  The El Nino lends me to speculate we might get cold in February but who really knows?

Looking forward to possible temperature drop of 7 degrees  with snow North and East maybe on Southerly hills, All by day 10..

Martin Gibbs thoughts must be read on his site

norton_radstockweather.co.uk

Not just the UK - western/central Europe looks due for a shock

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

That's the thing about means. It could show every run having a zonal flow or a whole range of outputs averaging out at a "zonal mean" hiding probabilities and the range of potential outcomes. Without seeing the standard deviation and individual members, a single mean chart may or may not be a useful forecasting tool.

Yes, it could show a totally zonal outcome which is the climatic norm but on its own it just proves that there is not good agreement on an alternative single non-zonal (meridian all) outcome but little more. 

Edit: As an example the day 10 ECMWF SLP/500hPa mean chart paints a very zonal picture http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

The (higher resolution?) op run at the some point shows a more anticyclonic and more meridional picture. With all the options average these individual charts get "flattened out" http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif. 

I can't disagree with anything you say there and it is something I have noticed myself regarding both the GFS and EC means, in that the further out one is to look at them, the more they resort to the expected climate norms for the time of year without giving any real idea of the spread.  Only thing you can do in this case really is make some abstract judgements. For example, the SLP mean over the UK and Ireland is progged to be a bit higher than average beyond day 10, with the higher values further south; on the other hand 500 mb heights over the Canadian Maritimes is forecast to fall somewhat to near or a little below average during that time, but all that will probably change in the next run anyway!

Wintry ppn from this chart if verified, mainly further North of course

Wouldnt be too upset with this to start December , frosty nights and chillier days