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Gooner
15 November 2015 17:00:09


Much chillier for next weekend

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
15 November 2015 17:01:36


A chilly SEly follows later

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Retron
15 November 2015 17:09:36


A chilly SEly follows later


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Easterly - remember the winds don't flow parallel to the isobars!


The latter stages of the 12z GFS op are very interesting. Not because they're especially cold, but because of the synoptics on offer. Repeated bursts of south-to-north warm air advection west of Greenland more often than not lead to a noteworthy cold spell for the UK - but at this range it's just pure eye-candy.


It's absolutely fascinating to watch though and it's a world away from the mild dross we've experienced these past few weeks.

Leysdown, north Kent
Gusty
15 November 2015 18:02:32


It's absolutely fascinating to watch though and it's a world away from the mild dross we've experienced these past few years.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Agree 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



the converted
15 November 2015 18:03:34

It will certainly be a short sharp  shock  to the system

Polar Low
15 November 2015 18:26:34
doctormog
15 November 2015 18:30:34
David M Porter
15 November 2015 18:44:51

Is Wetterzentrale down at the moment? I can't seem to access it through either Firefox or Internet Explorer.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
15 November 2015 18:47:28

Keep it quite run of the night 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0



 



 


Certainly chilly by Saturday http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

doctormog
15 November 2015 18:49:00


Is Wetterzentrale down at the moment? I can't seem to access it through either Firefox or Internet Explorer.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes it is and has been for a few hours I think. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Charmhills
15 November 2015 18:49:03


Is Wetterzentrale down at the moment? I can't seem to access it through either Firefox or Internet Explorer.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes its down David.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Polar Low
15 November 2015 18:52:41
Gooner
15 November 2015 18:56:40

much much chillier weather on the cards for the coming weekend , long overdue

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
15 November 2015 18:57:37


Such much chillier weather on the cards for the coming weekend , long overdue


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Yep, be nice to be rid of this mild gunk.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
David M Porter
15 November 2015 19:01:58

Thanks Michael & Duane, at least I now know it isn't my PC playing up again!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
nsrobins
15 November 2015 20:19:18
London ECM 2m temp clusters have consolidated around maxes of 3 - 5C for the period 21st to 23rd and combined with a persistent signal in GFS ENS I'm now officially engaged.
At this stage is say snow is actually quite likely in many areas in the North, and with the right timing and a favourable vector on the potential open low running SE on Saturday, possibly further South too.
It's early days, but a potential nevertheless which given my prediction of a fairly mild pattern until the last week of November I'm quite surprised at. Let's see how it develops but winter looks like it's about to knock on our door and remind us it's only a few weeks away ❄️
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
krusty
15 November 2015 21:50:59
best thing i have read all month ;)
69 Meters or 227 Feet ASL
White Meadows
15 November 2015 22:06:23
Gfs up to its old tricks already!... The Uk in a slack cold easterly for 1st December 😛
Gooner
15 November 2015 23:35:47

18z certainly gives us something of interest and keeps the viewing figures up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gusty
16 November 2015 07:31:59

Full agreement now for a cold NNW'ly at the weekend. Although the source is of Arctic origin the NNW'ly feed for the UK will mean that only exposed coasts will experience any wintriness on offer. (all very typical in these set ups). 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Solar Cycles
16 November 2015 08:51:50
Looking like the UKMO has the best handle on this coming weekend with the bulk of the cold to our East leaving us in a cold but mainly dry weekend away from coastal districts and the far North. At least it will seasonal and with that big Siberian high lurking in the wings and the PV still looking to hitch a lift to Greenland then chances of colder incursions over the coming weeks remains higher than normal.
Quantum
16 November 2015 11:57:21

Quick thought about the model outputs regarding AO and NAO. Remember for the last two years we had -ve AO but +ve NAO? I've always suspected that NAO is more important than AO, and the upcoming cold spell is a rather unique case where the NAO is -ve and the AO is positive. So can this be said?


              +ve NAO       -ve NAO


 


+Ve AO      Zonal             Cold spell


 


-Ve AO     'cold' zonality   Extended cold spell


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ARTzeman
16 November 2015 12:11:54

We could do with the Dam  thickness   reference chart  /Graph popping back up. Seem to remember some did one last year..





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Scandy 1050 MB
16 November 2015 12:45:49

Deep FI but shows a lot of promise this chart; pressure rising to the NE and NW with a low sinking south - no sign of the Euro slug either:


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0


 


All be gone on the next run but the trend seems to be there to throw out some quite interesting charts at the moment.


 


Back to the more current time frame and Saturday night could be the first air frost in the South?


 


kmoorman
16 November 2015 13:45:38


Deep FI but shows a lot of promise this chart; pressure rising to the NE and NW with a low sinking south - no sign of the Euro slug either:


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0


 


All be gone on the next run but the trend seems to be there to throw out some quite interesting charts at the moment.


 


Back to the more current time frame and Saturday night could be the first air frost in the South?


 



Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 


 


Excellent news, of only to stop my grass from growing. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968

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