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Ally Pally Snowman
16 November 2015 22:15:51


Surprised there is not more discussion about the events of tomorrow afternoon / evening. There are not many times in a typical autumn / winter that wind gusts of 60-70mph are forecast inland for southern England. Certainly the train companies are taking it seriously with South West Trains warning of possible disruption for the rest of the week due to wind and other factors. That said the latest BBC forecasts seem out of kilter with the latest models which show the strongest inland winds north of the M4 over the Midlands not the south. So still some uncertainty on the track of the band of strongest winds.


The latest NMM model has the strongest winds over the Midlands.


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015111612/nmm_uk1-11-33-1.png?16-18


ARPEGE shows the same thing. Ignore the subsequent charts which are corrupted. The T35 chart is blank and the T36 chart is most certainly not correct. Normal service is resumed at T37. Unfortunately the 35 and 36 charts are the ones we really want to see.


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2015111612/arpegeuk-11-34-0.png?16-16


GFS is similar


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/33-289UK.GIF?16-12


EURO4 does not have a gust chart but the mean speed chart also shows the strongest inland winds away from the far south


EURO4


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Definitely looks a nasty one seems to have snuck up on us without much notice. Think it will surprise a few people tomorrow evening just how stong the winds are. Beeb going for 80mph +!


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
16 November 2015 22:18:49


The 12z GFS develops an interesting secondary low on Saturday afternoon which runs down the eastern side of England. This needs watching. No doubt will look different on every run but shows what could happen


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/108-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/114-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/120-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-515UK.GIF?16-12


Dew points close to zero at 18z on Saturday as that low reaches Kent


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-101UK.GIF?16-12


The precipitation chart shows rain at that time but it will be very marginal


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-779UK.GIF?16-12


Some seriously low wind chill readings on Saturday night. Pipe freezing conditions in the north. Ice likely to be a big problem as well given precipitation during Saturday afternoon in many areas. Good thing it is Sunday the next morning not a weekday as travel conditions could be very bad.


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/132-290UK.GIF?16-12


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Very very close to a snowfest ! Great analysis as per GW.


 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
17 November 2015 06:53:58

2nd northerly plunge from ECM looks potent! A very cold run from ECM this morning coldest so far this season.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
17 November 2015 08:04:50

 


 


Saturday is looking cold


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Charmhills
17 November 2015 09:51:24


2nd northerly plunge from ECM looks potent! A very cold run from ECM this morning coldest so far this season.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html


 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Cold, crisp and sunny and anything else is a bonus.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Girthmeister
17 November 2015 10:54:49
Meanwhile, back in the short term, Storm Barney looks to be quite a sharp blast:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015111700/nmmuk-11-21-0.png?17-06  - NMM has it crossing a large swathe of Central England, with gusts widely of 65mph+, pretty strong for inland UK.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111706/15-289UK.GIF?17-6  - GFS has the main windy region a little further south, and stronger too, approaching 70mph.

MO have updated the warnings to put the main risk of disruption across the Midlands.
Charmhills
17 November 2015 11:10:47

GFS 06z is chilly at times even into fi but very unsettled with it.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Russwirral
17 November 2015 11:13:45
GFS FI - has gone from a very unsettled and often milder solution... to this mornings output which again has hints of March 2013. LPs running from Iceland down to France, introducing milder sectors to western Britain.

On the face of it, the cold air wont be enough for widespread snow, but would bring hill snow to northern and possibly southern areas, whilst the majority of the UK suffers cold rain with the added bonus of windchill!

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Phil G
17 November 2015 11:18:12

Meanwhile, back in the short term, Storm Barney looks to be quite a sharp blast:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/runs/2015111700/nmmuk-11-21-0.png?17-06 - NMM has it crossing a large swathe of Central England, with gusts widely of 65mph+, pretty strong for inland UK.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111706/15-289UK.GIF?17-6 - GFS has the main windy region a little further south, and stronger too, approaching 70mph.

MO have updated the warnings to put the main risk of disruption across the Midlands.

Originally Posted by: Girthmeister 


Sounds like Barney will leave some Rubble lying around.


 

Crepuscular Ray
17 November 2015 11:30:54


 


Sounds like Barney will leave some Rubble lying around.


 


Originally Posted by: Phil G 


😅😅😅

Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
nickward_uk
17 November 2015 11:40:44


The 12z GFS develops an interesting secondary low on Saturday afternoon which runs down the eastern side of England. This needs watching. No doubt will look different on every run but shows what could happen


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/108-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/114-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/120-515UK.GIF?16-12


http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015111612/126-515UK.GIF?16-12


 


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 


do these hint at the chance of streamers down the Cheshire Gap?

colin46
17 November 2015 12:57:54
Funny how cold snaps/spells always seem to arrive at the weekends!
shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
moomin75
17 November 2015 16:45:40
Very interesting developments in the early stages of FI on this 12z.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
idj20
17 November 2015 16:47:35

Funny how cold snaps/spells always seem to arrive at the weekends!

Originally Posted by: colin46 



Does remind me of Winter 2013 when Jive Buddy and myself noticed it always snowed on a Sunday at this end.

Speaking of which, I'll tell you something though, the latest GFS run isn't without interest when it comes to hoping for an early taste of wintry weather for us SE Massive (do people still say that in 2015?) over the weekend and perhaps into Monday, especially when the other models are coming up with a similar idea.
  Yes, it is still a long way off in forecasting terms and yes, have to take into account 850's and upper wind direction and indeed I've had my fingers burnt . . . but to be honest, I'm already bored of this mild windy wet gunk and this is only a couple of hours into Barney's effects so a change is a good as the rest when it comes to this time of the year.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Charmhills
17 November 2015 17:32:29

GFS 12z is chilly at times and often very unsettled but not cold enough for anything wintry as of yet bar this coming weekend of course.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Retron
17 November 2015 17:46:52


I remember that in the exceptional case of Nov 2010 there were clear signs of northern blocking developing on the model output by this time in the month, but were there any such signs at the same stage in Nov 2009? My recollection of that time is by no means perfect but from what I do remember there weren't many, if indeed any at all.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Ensembles from the 17th November 2009 and 2010. The current chart is here.



Leysdown, north Kent
eddied
17 November 2015 18:05:00


Ensembles from the 17th November 2009 and 2010. The current chart is here.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


That chart to my untrained eye shows precipitation spikes on the weekend coinciding with 850s of -5 to -6. With DPs close to 0 last time I looked, and the low pressure arriving after dark, it's looking good for a few flakes of the white stuff on Saturday in the south east - outside of London at least?


 


Or is that the triumph of optimism over objectivity?

Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23
Days snow falling: 4
Days snow on ground:8
Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th
Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th
Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st
Stormchaser
17 November 2015 18:22:53

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.  No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Interesting to see more development of the Channel Low on the GFS 12z op run, which brings a very wet day to the Channel and...


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


A brief spell of heavy snow to the far south of England, as cold air cuts in via the northern flank of the low. That's why snow seekers love Channel Lows here in the south... but we can just as easily end up hating them if they develop too much and bring warmer air from the southeast. The low needs to be 'flat' in shape, stretched out west to east, for the event to bring snowfall.


If the low ends up rounder or tracks further south, no dice. Further north would cause problems too as the warm side of the frontal boundary is in the center of the Channel on the above chart - not a lot of wiggle room!


GFS is the only model so far this evening with an op run developing this feature at all, let alone as much as shown above. On the ECM and UKMO runs you just have a frontal boundary with little to drive undercutting of cold air from the northern side.


 


SO... a very, very small chance of a surprisingly heavy fall of snow for the far south on Friday night. Nice idea, though!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
pdiddy
17 November 2015 19:17:33


 


I remember that in the exceptional case of Nov 2010 there were clear signs of northern blocking developing on the model output by this time in the month, but were there any such signs at the same stage in Nov 2009? My recollection of that time is by no means perfect but from what I do remember there weren't many, if indeed any at all.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


check it out here:


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=5&mois=12&annee=2009&heure=6&archive=1&mode=0&ech=6&runpara=0&carte=0

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 November 2015 19:42:00


SO... a very, very small chance of a surprisingly heavy fall of snow for the far south on Friday night. Nice idea, though!


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


You're not the only optimist - look at the early hours of Saturday


http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
haghir22
17 November 2015 21:14:09
It's very quiet in here considering?
YNWA
Russwirral
17 November 2015 21:29:53

It's very quiet in here considering?

Originally Posted by: haghir22 


 


Agreed.... saying that - apart from this Saturday, it doesnt look that cold.... nor does it look that wet during the cold spell...


 


Saying that, the charts look primed for one run sooner or later to deliver  plenty of these...


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
polarwind
17 November 2015 22:20:18

Fascinated by the synoptics lately - not something I remember as being similar to this - and very interesting. Its the orientation of the lows and highs that imo, is intriguing. 


Over the last few decades the orientation of there Azores high, has mostly been, from the Azores towards the NE and high pressure in Berne, Switzerland, was used by some as an indicator of the weather for the next few weeks. The present orientation is from the Azores High towards the NW - all indicative of the basic jet stream pattern.


What does one make of that? 

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Dave,Derby
Russwirral
17 November 2015 22:45:53


Fascinated by the synoptics lately - not something I remember as being similar to this - and very interesting. Its the orientation of the lows and highs that imo, is intriguing. 


Over the last few decades the orientation of there Azores high, has mostly been, from the Azores towards the NE and high pressure in Berne, Switzerland, was used by some as an indicator of the weather for the next few weeks. The present orientation is from the Azores High towards the NW - all indicative of the basic jet stream pattern.


What does one make of that? 


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


 


Hints of 2013 if you ask me.... might yet develop into nothing.... could be the cusp of something.


Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Patrick01
17 November 2015 22:47:51

I hope our 48 hour cold snap isn't just a mechanism for facilitating the euro slug to take up its usual residence over the Azores... where it was all last winter! 


The weak jet as a result of the blocking (however ominously positioned) it useful though, to the extent that relatively cold air is held in place over most of Europe from this weekend to the end of the reliable timeframe on GFS. The Alps and other skiing areas would be very pleased with this outcome I'd have thought.

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