Agree completely SC.

I should have some new strat charts on TWO within the next week. They'll be added to the chart viewer.

What do the verification stats have to do with identifying over-amplification as the reason for the times the ECM does not verify?

Unless the model has a verification of 100%, then it must by definition be getting it wrong sometimes. All that Solar Cycles is doing is offering his opinion on one possible cause of those instances of non-verification. 

I haven't an opinion on whether he's right or wrong, but the verification stats are irrelevant to the question.

Consistent theme now developing in FI of a scandi high. Tonights Scandi high, takes on a less cold personality, though - europe already pretty cold means UK will be barely above zero. Seems quite dry - with a risk of this turning into a euro High with southerly winds.

Most probably will turn into a frosty period.

Edit - for those of you scanning through the threads - December is looking

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/18_384_2mtmp.png?cb=612

Essentially, the GFS op is managing to severely disrupt the polar vortex using in large part an Arctic High that's prominent in around 10 days time. It somehow achieves this in the face of a fairly potent stratospheric vortex, which leads to questions regarding the possible effect of the distribution of sea ice deficits, for example. These are hard to assess as it's easily possible that the op run is overdoing things.

Interestingly enough, ECM does have that Arctic High at day 10 now, which wasn't the case on its 00z op run, and there are signs that the polar vortex could split apart in the following days - in similar fashion to GFS.

The ECM ensembles don't seem to offer much help on the face of it, with a very wide spread of outcomes:

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

...which is disappointing as I daren't pay too much attention to the GEFS until they receive their much-delayed upgrade early next month which will bring them a lot closer to the operational in terms of the levels of the atmosphere and - I believe - the horizontal resolution.

The money remains on a zonal December for the time being but these Arctic Highs and the lack of coherent strat. to trop. coupling are starting to raise a few eyebrows in the scientific community. Just a little, but still...!

I don't see no sign of cold/snow in the netweather  long range forecast tho I wont take any long range forecast as gospel

Horrendous charts this morning. Must be due to 'missing data'. We haven't trotted that one out yet.

Does that mean you do see signs of cold/snow?

Not seeing anything significantly cold either. Looks pretty zonal and probably quite mild overall allowing for the swings between tm and pm air masses.

The double negative makes me unsure what you mean, but their long range effort is strongly in favour of a SSW in early Jan with a significant cold spell in the middle of the month. Far from a done deal of course - in fact I'm amazed at how bold they have been there.

The Arctic High is still there and messing with the polar vortex on the GFS 00z op run, but the Atlantic trough wins the first battle with signs of a possible detour away from the Atlantic regime taking until days 15-16 to even start to emerge.

ECM might be a different story going forward from day 10 with a gain in latitude of high pressure likely - but the outcome could easily be a strong UK based high pressure cell. It'd be a nice break from the westerlies though, and potentially becoming cold at the surface. All speculative of course and starting from too far ahead to place any faith in.

We already have enough disagreement within 4 days range, as GFS has a nasty shortwave system grazing the far north as it races east on the periphery of the parent trough, bringing some gusts well into the 80's with near 100 mph out at sea:

...yet ECM makes a lot less of that feature, choosing instead to show more development of a shallow disturbance along the trailing polar front Mon-Tue, enough to tighten the isobars across the south while the north is merely breezy following a very brief spell of stronger winds on Sunday as that shortwave low zips through (its just off the Norwegian coastline in the chart below-left):

I've also posted the ECM day 10 chart from the polar perspective just to illustrate the presence of the Arctic High and it's effect on the polar vortex which is essentially split into multiple lobes. If it wasn't for that shortwave S of Greenland I daresay it would be a more interesting chart from the N. Atlantic/Europe perspective - as it is it goes to show the kind of complications that are usually overlooked at the longer range.

Generally speaking I would be surprised not to see an Atlantic regime dominate December 2015, but I suspect the setup may be a bit more unstable than usual, with more room for a deviation here and there that brings a cold snap with wintry weather pushing south for a short time.

For the next 9 days to 5th December the Weather Outlook is for often dry and fine mild weather over Central and South SE UK, with the expected weather in the north, West NW and mid to far North seeing some wet and rainy weather with brief colder interludes in North and NW UK.

High Pressure close to SE and South UK but here often mild with just afew chilly cool days, and occasional clear skies/ sunny or clear spells.  And it could for a few days get cold even in the South with risk of ground or air frost 2 or 3 days.

More updates from me may be by Thursday next week.

2 or 3 days of WestNW or even NW airflow in all parts are expected.

Often very windy with very heavy rain over NW and the North UK.

I would say there is actually more of a cool down coupled with drier days ( as you say )

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn21617.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24017.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn26417.gif

with mild days less apparent

 ...will watch closely.  I will concede that I have often thought something similar...BUT... those verification stats suggest the ECM is still better, its possible that it is better(than the rest) , notwithstanding its perceived tendency to over do cold plunges.

Staying predominately mild for the next fortnight , in the southern half of the country at least.

Of course Marcus, Our Usual situation still prevails, we are set for the 2015 as being a true record breaker for being the warmest ever recorded.

I understand what you mean, I am sorry for emphasising the mild in my comments as I went on to explain about the Chilly cold NW Returning Maritime Polar spells.