No surprise to see a cold outlier run in the GFS. Happens every winter but the fact remains all background signals point to a mildish normal December. No reliable signs whatsoever of anything remotely interesting for coldies despite all the hope from THAT 0z.
Ah well. There's still January and February but my bet is that March and April are more likely to deliver as often is the case.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Can you post some facts with that

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

No. But I've seen several white Easters in my life but never a white Christmas. I am just your alter ego Marcus. We are like Yin and Yang. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Are those not for last winter Roger ??

Originally Posted by: Weathermac 

Indeed David, and yet some never learn and seem to think that outlooks are set in stone. Of course the form horse is a continuation of a westerly mobile pattern we've seen for the last couple of weeks, however we all know just how the odds on are easily trumped by the also rans from time to time.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Further to the discussion above, I can remember another occasion from the relatively recent past which IMO shows the futility of being in no doubt that a certain month will be dominated from start to finish by a particular weather type.

Does anyone here recall February 2009 which had a wintry spell early in the month, and at the time there seemed to be almost rock solid agreement between the various operational and ensemble runs that the cold spell would continue for much of the rest of that month? Guess what happened next- almost all of them changed their minds suddenly and dramatically almost in the space of 24 hours and showed a rather milder atlantic pattern taking hold for the remainder of that month.

I rest my case.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Several years since I posted, lost log-in details so re-registered.  Thought I had to make a little comment.  More of a reader of the post than a contributor and not much of a tech geek in weather terms, but common sense by the bucket load.  So here we go.  Experience tells us that looking beyond 10 days is rather foolish for a concrete return on weather facts, might indicate something in the offing but no guarantees.  I tend to use my Nose (see told you loads of common sense) this years run up to winter is building very slowly and in my opinion quite predictable.  Lots of berries on trees very early, birds migrating to and from our shores very early, our Robin friend turned up a month early (first time in 3 years).  

I hear, Whats this got to do with the model output discussion.  Well we don't all look to computers for an answer (or lack of) There are many people who use their noses quite successfully year on year to create their own forecast based on natures own signs (been around a lot longer than those  super duper forecasting things) don't expect to much in the way of real cold for the next couple of weeks, why, because the forecast for the next 10 days or so can be reasonably accurate.  Beyond that.  The growing season only just coming to an end for lots of our natural vegetation.  I remember my grandad who was a farmer telling me that is a sure sign of a harsh winter to come as it gives the wildlife opportunity to stock up on natures bounty.  So based on my common sense nose, slowly, slowly into the freezer we go.

Another indicator is to watch the beast in the european south east Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.  Don't ask me why but when its cold there its mild here and when mild there its cold here.  Current conditions there are mild for this time of year.  Now there is a nice little project for one of you weather intellectuals to do some research to see if there is some foundation in that.

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Several years since I posted, lost log-in details so re-registered.  Thought I had to make a little comment.  More of a reader of the post than a contributor and not much of a tech geek in weather terms, but common sense by the bucket load.  So here we go.  Experience tells us that looking beyond 10 days is rather foolish for a concrete return on weather facts, might indicate something in the offing but no guarantees.  I tend to use my Nose (see told you loads of common sense) this years run up to winter is building very slowly and in my opinion quite predictable.  Lots of berries on trees very early, birds migrating to and from our shores very early, our Robin friend turned up a month early (first time in 3 years).  

I hear, Whats this got to do with the model output discussion.  Well we don't all look to computers for an answer (or lack of) There are many people who use their noses quite successfully year on year to create their own forecast based on natures own signs (been around a lot longer than those  super duper forecasting things) don't expect to much in the way of real cold for the next couple of weeks, why, because the forecast for the next 10 days or so can be reasonably accurate.  Beyond that.  The growing season only just coming to an end for lots of our natural vegetation.  I remember my grandad who was a farmer telling me that is a sure sign of a harsh winter to come as it gives the wildlife opportunity to stock up on natures bounty.  So based on my common sense nose, slowly, slowly into the freezer we go.

Another indicator is to watch the beast in the european south east Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.  Don't ask me why but when its cold there its mild here and when mild there its cold here.  Current conditions there are mild for this time of year.  Now there is a nice little project for one of you weather intellectuals to do some research to see if there is some foundation in that.

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

Another indicator is to watch the beast in the european south east Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.  Don't ask me why but when its cold there its mild here and when mild there its cold here.  Current conditions there are mild for this time of year.  Now there is a nice little project for one of you weather intellectuals to do some research to see if there is some foundation in that.

Originally Posted by: Phil24 

No. But I've seen several white Easters in my life but never a white Christmas. I am just your alter ego Marcus. We are like Yin and Yang. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

This FI chart from ECM has flooding for Cumbria written all over it.  Long fetch SWly perhaps with a trailing front embedded.  Plus orographic rainfall One to watch.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

This FI chart from ECM has flooding for Cumbria written all over it.  Long fetch SWly perhaps with a trailing front embedded.  Plus orographic rainfall One to watch.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

i class the 18z run as an "almost" run.

Nice to know FI hasnt completely departed from trying to get something to us from the east. I wouldnt be surprised if we get another Beast in the FI sometime over the weekend. All to play for

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I agree

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

It's borderline freakish how similar the 12z and 00z ECM op runs have been today.

There is one notable difference though; the polar vortex doesn't get anywhere near as organised on the 12z. That's a useful trend if there ever was one. In fact the day 10 chart is better than the GFS equivalent to my eyes - just look at how distanced apart the polar vortex lobes are:

Having the largest of the lobes situated over Siberia is interesting but not directly of much use unless that Euro High can get taken down in some way. With that in mind the lazy looking Atlantic is of some interest. As usual though, this is a case of trying to achieve a colder spell against the odds and at least a month sooner than I believe is realistic to expect. I'd enjoy being proved wrong on that point though!

In the meantime, it does look like a portion of next week will be a bit of a throwback to the first half of November, with exceptionally high temperatures possible especially by night - and a whole lotta rain for some western parts in particular. The south may escape with relatively little rain, continuing the theme of recent months of near to below average amounts - or it could receive an absolute soaking if the Euro High doesn't push north as much as it did early in the month.

GFS remains keen on settling things down by the latter stages of the week, but ECM's not interested and seems determined to give us a wild ride next weekend. Some more exceptionally high temperatures possible too even with GFS's more settled outcome, though that's more a case of balmy days and fairly average nights so the diurnal means wouldn't so as exceptional.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser