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moomin75
29 November 2015 17:49:41


 


Weren't you one of the people who early last winter said that you thought the whole winter would be a 2013-14 style write-off based on the unsettled weather at that time and model output that looked poor on the face of it? Apologies if I'm wrong about that. It wasn't a classic winter for cold lovers by any means but neither was it a carbon copy of the preceding one.


In my view gut feeling doesn't count for much if anything when it comes to weather though. For instance, I can remember some people saying before the summer of 2013 that their "gut feeling" was that it would be another poor one largely because the previous six summers had been poor. Conversely, when we had a brief hot spell in late May 2012, I thought at that point we'd have a decent summer. I couldn't have been more wrong about that could I!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

No that wasn't me. I produced an LRF last winter which went cold and failed...so I am not bothering to do any more.


 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Solar Cycles
29 November 2015 17:58:03


 


A wet and windy winter will do me very nicely thank you! What I don't want is high pressure sitting over the Alps.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The downside being would be the lack of traffic Brian as not many on here could give two hoots for a mild and wet winter, though Jacko would be drooling at the mouth at such a prospect.😁

marting
29 November 2015 18:01:00
A slightly noticeable dip in the 12z ensemble tonight come the 14th. Something to watch?
Martin
Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Hippydave
29 November 2015 18:29:20



Clearly knows it's sinking away ready for some kind of arctic blast


 


On the GFS front it's not the most exciting run I've ever seen but it's not bad for your neck of the woods in terms of cooler blips and wintriness. The NH view also doesn't have a particularly organised vortex which can't be a bad thing for December. 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
doctormog
29 November 2015 18:33:33


 



Clearly knows it's sinking away ready for some kind of arctic blast


 


On the GFS front it's not the most exciting run I've ever seen but it's not bad for your neck of the woods in terms of cooler blips and wintriness. The NH view also doesn't have a particularly organised vortex which can't be a bad thing for December. 


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


Yes, it's not all doom and gloom and I frankly have no idea what the next few weeks have in store looking at the model output over the last couple of days. It is still a mobile picture and not one without hope but it is also not especially wintry away from parts of the north/northwest at times.


Ally Pally Snowman
29 November 2015 19:09:00

Nearly interesting from the ecm is this high going to Scandinavia?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
roger63
29 November 2015 20:18:52

Given the current rather uninspiring model output I thought I would look at past Decembers pressure patterns,specifically for the Xamas bridge period from Dec 20th to Dec 31st.I;ve looked at 70 years from 1944-2013.In the 12 days from Dec20th Using NCEp reanalysis and Wetterzentrale archives sought to identify spells circulation with a minimum of 3 days duration and with airflow northerly,north easterly or easterly.


They will usually be cold weather related  spells and I've commented where the periods are of particular significanceHopefully you will have your own memories of  some  of these. 


Each year with a cold set up has the dates of the spell and the rough  wind directions.


1948  22-24 E


1950  23-28 E


1952  28-30 NE


1960 20-23  N


1961  20-31 N/E/NE  A cold spell running trough to Jan 03.


1962  22-31 ENE/E   The big one the start of the great winter of 62/63.I thought that this was going to be the norm...


1963  20-24 N/E/NE


1964  23-25 NE


1965  26-29 NE


1967  29-31 N


1968  26-31 NE.In central Europe the following winter was the coldest of the century.


1969 28-31  E


1970 23-31  N/E/NE


1971 27-31  E


1972 20-23 E


1976 25-28 E/NE


1978 28-31 E The precursor to the very cold winter of 78/79


1981 22-27 E Part of the very cold December of 1981


1984 29-31 E The introduction to the very cold January of 1985.


1985 26-29 NE


1986 22-26 N


1989 29-31 E


1992 23-28 E


1995 25-27 NE


1996 20-31 E  a very cold spell covering the entire 12 day xmas period and lasting into early Jan.


2000 23-30 E/NE/N


2005 27-29 E


2008 26-30 E Followed by cold snowy Jan


2009 29-31 E Cold winter followed


2010 20-24 NE .The tail end  of the great late November to late December bitter snowy spell!


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

David M Porter
29 November 2015 20:41:46

A slightly noticeable dip in the 12z ensemble tonight come the 14th. Something to watch?
Martin

Originally Posted by: marting 


GFS 12z run looked a little more interesting in FI. No suggestion of major height rises over Greenland and Iceland but it doesn't show a raging polar vortex either as far as I can see.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Beast from the East
29 November 2015 21:22:28
even the Express can't find anyone to predict "the worst snow for 3000 years"! About as bleak as it gets. Lol
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
29 November 2015 21:23:19


 


GFS 12z run looked a little more interesting in FI. No suggestion of major height rises over Greenland and Iceland but it doesn't show a raging polar vortex either as far as I can see.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Thats right it doesnt


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bertwhistle
29 November 2015 21:29:55

Roger- very interesting summary of wind directions. Noteable that there's nothing in your list for the 4-Christmas run since 2010.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Russwirral
29 November 2015 21:31:31


 


Euro High???


 


Its a Euro/African High  - its masshoooooosive.


 


 


Brian Gaze
29 November 2015 21:39:34


The downside being would be the lack of traffic Brian as not many on here could give two hoots for a mild and wet winter, though Jacko would be drooling at the mouth at such a prospect.😁


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


A wet and windy get me lots of traffic! 2013/14 was exceptionally busy on TWO.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
29 November 2015 21:59:32

Lets hope that Two can take the traffic Brian some of those are just mad 


 



 



 


A wet and windy get me lots of traffic! 2013/14 was exceptionally busy on TWO.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Whether Idle
29 November 2015 21:59:52


 


A wet and windy get me lots of traffic! 2013/14 was exceptionally busy on TWO.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I get twitchy whenever that winter is referenced.  I was busy too...replacing tiles...truncating fallen trees...defending the house from flooding.  No thanks.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Patrick01
29 November 2015 22:18:40

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn782.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn723.gif


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn902.gif


Quite interesting to note the reach of that flood of cold air coming out of eastern Canada over the next few days. The 0c isotherm reaching the Azores is unusual, as is sub 546 dam air. Could be some interesting weather on Thursday depending on where that little low ends up as it interacts with the cold Atlantic air. 

Chiltern Blizzard
29 November 2015 22:37:25
*The 0c isotherm reaching the Azores is unusual*

I thought that was actually quite common in winter months?
Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Gooner
29 November 2015 22:46:40


GFS has the heavy rain on Thursday much further North than the Beeb


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Polar Low
29 November 2015 22:54:41

 looks at those 850c state side blow touch full action the plains 


quote WPC


WPC's Extended Forecast Discussion

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// var cal1x = new CalendarPopup("calarea");
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// if (top != self) {top.location.href = self.location.href;}
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TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE -- BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES --
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAYS 4-7. NO ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS ARE
EXPECTED.




 


 



 


 


 

Patrick01
29 November 2015 22:54:59

*The 0c isotherm reaching the Azores is unusual*

I thought that was actually quite common in winter months?

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


It isn't unprecedented but I wouldn't say it's common either. I usually have half an eye on the Azores when looking at the output and I very rarely see the 0c reaching that far south (from the north west at least), and it sticks around for a short while as well. 

Gooner
29 November 2015 23:17:19


Not for the first time today GFS looks to put a block in the Atlantic


 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Phil G
29 November 2015 23:20:02
Deep into FI yes, but GFS keeps toying with a change to more seasonal weather around mid month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 



Gooner
29 November 2015 23:20:14


And right at the end


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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