Same old, same old. Nothing on the horizon for decent UK weather.

I must have been born in the wrong century - the latter part of the 17th Century must have been a fun time to live in England.

We get such rubbish winters these days - apart from 2010, which was an isolated one off, I am certain winters were better in my young days in the 1960s.

For some reason, a prolonged spell of negative NAO is as rare as hen's teeth these days.

Not sure about that one

http://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/The-Great-Plague/

I was thinking about frost fairs on the Thames, rather than about the Plague

Dreadful output, flooding very possible for Western and Northern areas.

GFS forecasts 292mm rain in N Wales over next few days, looks plausible tbh. Major flooding if it happens.

There already is flooding from the Severn and the Ouse etc.

Other rivers are high or very high and not far from bursting.

So many more rivers going the same way in the coming days ahead.

ECM about as bad as it gets for coldies tonight.

Bah humbug :-) 

I point out there were only 5 months from March 2008 to January 2011 inclusive that had a +ve NAO

Yes indeed, it has been on the cards for while now.  The mild will be paid for by some in the form of flooding.

Imby the mean temperature for Dec 1st is 13.4c and the December mean,here,could very well be around 12c in a weeks time. Personally it would be nice if the current set up stayed for the whole winter.

and Gales

Just for interest I think the Dec record is pretty safe.

I wouldn't rule it out; NE Scotland, sacks of moisture and a bit of turbulence for a perfect fohn: July and November weren't expected to do it.

It would have to beat this...  imo with present setup I cant see it but I guess anything is possible

The 18z is looking better again (apart from the Operational) but there are a couple of snow rows for us southerners 

As the output is again not very exciting some extreme straw clutching from the latest GFS run- looks like the Azores high wants to move out west at the end of the run:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0

This was one of the scenarios I think from the JMA on Gav P's  last (as always) excellent JMA/ CFS 4 week look ahead videos. If the Azores high moves out to mid atlantic a chance for pressure to fall over Spain and perhaps even some ridging northwards towards Greenland. Deep FI of course, so far from certain but at least better to look at then the endless dross until then.

That is the most extreme straw clutching yet seen. It is the tragedy of UK winters that we are reduced to this. Why don't we just give up and accept the inevitable diet of dross which is dish of the winter for our damp and soggy corner of the world?

Reasons to be optimistic this morning on the ECM by day 10 Arctic high , high pressure building over GReenland -5 850s over most of the UK. Is the mid month cold snap/spell/snowmageddon back on?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html