This winter, ENSO is probably a key player - the thread in the Climate forum has not been updated for a while, so I wondered how ENSO is progressing.  What would this winter be like if ENSO were neutral?

Anyhow, I have heard it claimed that our winter prospects are brighter if the the El Nino is of the Modoki variety.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Have a watch of Gavin P's winter forecast - tells you what you need to know there, does look like ENSO is a dominating signal and most models and forecasts I have seen aren't expecting anything too wintry in the first half of the winter but the second half may hold some promise.  I think this is a rare El Nino as it is so strong and warmer in the central Pacific rather than the East; not quite modoki yet but heading that way hopefully. 97/98 was more general warmth with the core of the heat just off the coast of Peru I believe but no expert.

Back to MO and maybe as others have commented some less extreme straws to clutch at from ECM, but more runs needed as always for a solid trend to emerge.

Originally Posted by: Scandy 1050 MB 

Reasons to be optimistic this morning on the ECM by day 10 Arctic high , high pressure building over GReenland -5 850s over most of the UK. Is the mid month cold snap/spell/snowmageddon back on?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.html

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Fantastic ECM-15 control run, showing several inches of snow over the whole of the UK by T+360 (17th Dec).

Here's hoping it's the start of a trend!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Fantastic ECM-15 control run, showing several inches of snow over the whole of the UK by T+360 (17th Dec).

Here's hoping it's the start of a trend!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

FWIW, the fun starts at 252 on the ECM-15 control this morning - a cold NW'ly flow with developing lows swinging across the UK with snow on their northern flanks. Definitely worth keeping an eye on!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I remember in some previous notable cold spells, where you spotted certain key triggers (like huge WAA over Eastern Canada, which inflated a Greenland High). Is there anything that stands out to you as being helpful to the development of a cold spell?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

FWIW, the fun starts at 252 on the ECM-15 control this morning - a cold NW'ly flow with developing lows swinging across the UK with snow on their northern flanks. Definitely worth keeping an eye on!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Fantastic ECM-15 control run, showing several inches of snow over the whole of the UK by T+360 (17th Dec).

Here's hoping it's the start of a trend!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Desperate times - meanwhile attention is drawn to the cold front and associated wave that appears to be progged later on Saturday and into Sunday. Could be a powerful wind event as well as exacerbating rainfall

Originally Posted by: Sevendust 

It's interesting and it has been a long time since I have seen a set of ensemble data so "average"!

Originally Posted by: doctormog