Morning all.

Interesting developments for the cold camp this morning- the mean in PL's post above looks pretty good for declining heights to the South whatever the case. As ever, the devil is in the detail and it could mean just a spell of cool zonality or something much more potent. Only time will tell.

Nice positive post

Thank you Jacko

Go steady Marcus- i've been on the beer again last night lol

Flow from the North a little earlier on the 6z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015120406/gfs-0-288.png?6

Looking a bit more promising by mid month. But the models tend to pick up blocking which then vanishes

FI beginning to paint a really interesting picture.  Starting around next Friday, Greenland HP appearing, moving away then coming back in a very stubborn fashion.

I really want to see the ensembles now :)

The push from the North continues

I want to see growing support in the GFS and ECM ems before I take interest.

I get the impression from Darren that something could be brewing

Quiet optimism growing even more this morning. There are a mish mash of scenarios being played out by the models and quite how we receive the cold if it comes remains to be seen.
Can expect a lot of changes to charts run by run as the models get to grips, but looking more likely that things will turn interesting as we head towards Christmas.

Hmmm..these have got me interested. 

Still lots of uncertainty, but the actual charts that make up the ensemble look more interesting than this ensemble plot, at least to me.  

A personal favourite:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/3_222_850tmp.png?cb=944 

That's a cracker - for the northern half (to two-thirds) of the UK

Serious amounts of rain for the NW over next 48 hours, don't think I've ever seen such numbers on the EURO4. In excess of 200mm in places. Reminds me of the November 2009 floods. With already saturated ground, flooding looks inevitable. Amber warning out from the Met Office.

Along with some very high wind speeds, it's not going to be nice at all up there.  Good luck guys.

Hopefully in time for Xmas!!

That's all I want for Christmas....   that and a wireless bluray home cinema system :)

It's also worth mentioning there are fun things going on at the top of the atmosphere too...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015120406/NH_TMP_1mb_000.gif

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015120406/NH_TMP_1mb_120.gif

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015120406/NH_TMP_1mb_240.gif

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015120406/NH_TMP_1mb_360.gif

At the top of the stratosphere, we're seeing a split in temperatures. That then warms out, followed by a renewed burst of warmth towards the end. This has been well-forecast and has been consistent for days now. At the moment it's only affecting the topmost layers of the atmosphere, but it's never a bad thing if you want to see some unusual synoptics down the road...

links dont work mate :(

No they don't. Retron - I am sure those are interesting charts - is it possible for you to post links which we can access? Thanks.

There isnt a La Nina forecast for at least the next few months.  I think the ENSO forecast is for the El nino to run its course progressing through to a Modoki type event through End of 2015 and into Spring 2016.  Possibly La Nina by sometime end of 2016 - but thats conjecture at this point.

For the El Nino affecting the PV - if youve read it somewhere, its probably in the likes of the Express when they were sending out the annual news titles of doom through October.  Polar vortex has been the buzz word of the media since a chunk of it parked itself over the US a few years ago.    

Yes it is possible it will disrupt it, and indeed FI on the GFS charts are starting to point towards some jiggery pockery in the PV.  Read through a few posts a over the past few days, there already been some analysis of the organisation (or lack of) of the PV.  This can be a great thing.... but be warned - this is no Golden ticket.  this is one Brick in a very confusing brick wall.  We need many other pieces to come together to get the big prize.... the biggest issue at the moment is the stubborn Euro High - this also has shown signs of weakening recently.