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David M Porter
07 December 2015 17:49:56

Usual rules.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
07 December 2015 18:08:58
I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
SJV
07 December 2015 18:11:09

I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Is this your LRF for this winter? 

Retron
07 December 2015 18:18:26
I bet it won't even last two-thirds of winter!

The models are still looking good in terms of a change away from this persistent mild gunk with this weekend set to feel quite different from the last few down here at least!

Both GEFS and ECM-EPS show that after the weekend there are two options on the table. One is a return to zonality, albeit not the silly levels of warmth we've had recently. The other option is a pattern which includes some actual cold weather, which would feel absolutely perishing compared to the daily excursions into the teens we've had of late.

A winter wonderland still isn't likely, but the building blocks are still failling into place. The top of the stratosphere is still going to see an injection of warmth and lower down the forecast from ECM at least is for the zonal winds to reverse above about 70N in the mid-term - a sure sign of high pressure over the Arctic!

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/ 
(click Zonal Wind charts - negative numbers mean the flow is east-to-west rather than west-to-east).

It then becomes a game of seeing just where that Arctic high ends up. The more interesting runs (in terms of cold) have it linking in some shape or form with a ridge from the Azores - it's the sort of thing we need to be looking out for in terms of seeing whether we get merely average weather or a cold spell. For now, it's too far out to draw any conclusions other than that the past few weeks worth of seemingly endless mild gunk look unlikely to be repeated after this weekend.
Leysdown, north Kent
Solar Cycles
07 December 2015 18:58:52

I bet it won't even last two-thirds of winter!

The models are still looking good in terms of a change away from this persistent mild gunk with this weekend set to feel quite different from the last few down here at least!

Both GEFS and ECM-EPS show that after the weekend there are two options on the table. One is a return to zonality, albeit not the silly levels of warmth we've had recently. The other option is a pattern which includes some actual cold weather, which would feel absolutely perishing compared to the daily excursions into the teens we've had of late.

A winter wonderland still isn't likely, but the building blocks are still failling into place. The top of the stratosphere is still going to see an injection of warmth and lower down the forecast from ECM at least is for the zonal winds to reverse above about 70N in the mid-term - a sure sign of high pressure over the Arctic!

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
(click Zonal Wind charts - negative numbers mean the flow is east-to-west rather than west-to-east).

It then becomes a game of seeing just where that Arctic high ends up. The more interesting runs (in terms of cold) have it linking in some shape or form with a ridge from the Azores - it's the sort of thing we need to be looking out for in terms of seeing whether we get merely average weather or a cold spell. For now, it's too far out to draw any conclusions other than that the past few weeks worth of seemingly endless mild gunk look unlikely to be repeated after this weekend.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

This will be the key to any potential pattern change for our little neck in the woods, or we could end up with the remains of the PV still anchored in an unfavourable spot still. Scandi height rises are the form horse for me as  we head towards Xmas , so we really need that Arctic high to play ball so we can get a more pronounced block backing west.

squish
07 December 2015 19:48:55

Around +180 GEM ( and also CMA) show a weak extension of the arctic high nosing southwards with some small depressions running east underneath it over the southern UK. This would be where I would look for an early opportunity of a cold outbreak. It wouldn't take much tweaking for a much more favourable outcome- although both GEM and CMA collapse the high quickly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015120712/gemnh-0-180.png


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2015120712/cmanh-0-180.png?12

There seems more than the usual model uncertainty past this weekend at the moment, with them all struggling with the complex set up after Fridays bog standard winter low moves eastwards. Maybe some short term and unexpected changes over the next few runs. Quite a few cold ensemble members popped up on the 12z GEFS.

Regards,


D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
roger63
07 December 2015 20:46:06


Around +180 GEM ( and also CMA) show a weak extension of the arctic high nosing southwards with some small depressions running east underneath it over the southern UK. This would be where I would look for an early opportunity of a cold outbreak. It wouldn't take much tweaking for a much more favourable outcome- although both GEM and CMA collapse the high quickly.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015120712/gemnh-0-180.png


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cma/runs/2015120712/cmanh-0-180.png?12

There seems more than the usual model uncertainty past this weekend at the moment, with them all struggling with the complex set up after Fridays bog standard winter low moves eastwards. Maybe some short term and unexpected changes over the next few runs. Quite a few cold ensemble members popped up on the 12z GEFS.

Regards,


Originally Posted by: squish 


The 12h GEFS shows the mild cold split at 50:50 for both 240h and 360h.However there is little cohesion in the cold ENs -most are some form of cold north westerly or northerly with a sprinkling of easterlies.


On 50:50 I'd back mild as the winner.However if we start getting a consistent majority of cold ENS there  maybe some hope of a cold snap before the years end.

Gooner
07 December 2015 20:59:15


 


Is this your LRF for this winter? 


Originally Posted by: SJV 


Better than last years eh K


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Saint Snow
07 December 2015 22:10:59

I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


If you continue to sound like a stuck record, it'll feel like it has lasted all winter


 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
moomin75
07 December 2015 22:14:42


 


 


If you continue to sound like a stuck record, it'll feel like it has lasted all winter


 


 



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Lol. Yeh but after a long winter without me what would you do? Just getting my posts in now before I depart these shores for a couple of months in Oz.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Maunder Minimum
07 December 2015 22:14:44

Cripes! look at the monster low heading for the Bering Straits:


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0&carte=1


 


 


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
07 December 2015 22:53:50

GFS18z brings a cold snap southwards next week.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
07 December 2015 23:00:42
That's a desperate call Brian if ever I saw one. 😜 Lol. A brief cooler spell with temps just around average, but a tad more seasonal I guess.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
beanoir
07 December 2015 23:23:00

I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Very constructive, thank you. 


Langford, Bedfordshire
nsrobins
07 December 2015 23:51:11
There's still some options in the suite, but not enough to call anything other than the mean solution which is a cooler version of what we have now.
I think we'll see something more seasonal from the weekend though at some point. Not much of a prediction I know but there's not much else to say lol
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
07 December 2015 23:52:05

That's a desperate call Brian if ever I saw one. 😜 Lol. A brief cooler spell with temps just around average, but a tad more seasonal I guess.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Below to be precise K


Feel like the Artic to you though


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Maunder Minimum
08 December 2015 06:32:06
The hemispheric synoptics are quite interesting and the vortex is indeed torn apart.
The tragedy for the UK is the Euroslug, which thwarts all attempts to dislodge it and so we miss out on the real fun and stay average to mild.
The weather Gods are playing with us and causing much wailing and gnashing of teeth.
The UK weather is a Greek tragedy!
New world order coming.
Retron
08 December 2015 07:27:09

Both the ECM15 control run from yesterday's 12z and the ECM32 control run from yesterday show a long period of changeable weather - lows followed by ridges followed by more lows. They're both representative of the milder cluster of runs - and as can be seen here, there's still a large divide between the mild and cold clusters:




Leysdown, north Kent
Shropshire
08 December 2015 07:27:49
Looks as if there are some windows of opportunity on the models for something more interesting to happen but it never quite does. I understand the monthly latest from the ECM is more of the same albeit less wet.
From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Retron
08 December 2015 07:38:13

Looks as if there are some windows of opportunity on the models for something more interesting to happen but it never quite does. I understand the monthly latest from the ECM is more of the same albeit less wet.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


If you've got that from "the other side", be careful as it's based entirely on mean charts. The control run for example shows a marked change in that instead of getting near-constant mild, dull weather we'll be seeing a seasonal mix of wind, rain, sun, frost - the works.


As you can see from the ECM spaghetti plot in my earlier post, the mean (in yellow) doesn't actually represent anything...


Leysdown, north Kent
Brian Gaze
08 December 2015 07:40:23

GFS0z was a mild outlier but if it came off we would be looking at a blowtorch Xmas away from Scotland. 


 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
08 December 2015 07:47:33
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

All rather academic though from one chart at day 15. Up here at least the outlook for the next week is more seasonal, just not especially cold, rather average - further south still a bit above and unfortunately still rather wet at times in some western parts.
nsrobins
08 December 2015 07:57:48
As Darren said how anyone can be confident on 10 days plus is beyond comprehension - look at the spread on the ENS across the model range.
And with the PV shot, and some warming forecast at 2-5hPa, some fascinating synoptics are being toyed with.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
springsunshine
08 December 2015 08:01:06


GFS0z was a mild outlier but if it came off we would be looking at a blowtorch Xmas away from Scotland. 


 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


So a BBQ xmas then,I would not be at all surprised now to see those kind of temperatures this year,the uk`s eternal autumn goes on and on.

Gooner
08 December 2015 08:28:44


Very close to what we want sadly the Atlantic looks too fired up


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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