If it is as absolute and inevitable as you say, why are bothering to view this thread and post here? 😉

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Can someone wrestle Moomin away from the keyboard for his own sake please! He's disappearing in to an abyss of depression!

Get outside and enjoy the spring sunshine!

Originally Posted by: John p 

Can someone wrestle Moomin away from the keyboard for his own sake please! He's disappearing in to an abyss of depression!

Get outside and enjoy the spring sunshine!

Originally Posted by: John p 

Good question Neil!

The MetO updates in themselves have altered at least a couple of times in the past week. For a few days at the end of last week they mentioned about the possibility of a colder & drier spell later in December, and only yesterday the 16-30 day update mentioned that there was quite a lot of uncertainty wrt late December. I would find it hard to imagine that they could go from being somewhat unsure yesterday to being 100% sure today.

I must say I'm starting to get somewhat tired of these posts in which some seem to speak as if they have some kind of a crystal ball. Now I read that January is likely to be a write-off as well. What are some people, Mystic Meg?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Good question Neil!

The MetO updates in themselves have altered at least a couple of times in the past week. For a few days at the end of last week they mentioned about the possibility of a colder & drier spell later in December, and only yesterday the 16-30 day update mentioned that there was quite a lot of uncertainty wrt late December. I would find it hard to imagine that they could go from being somewhat unsure yesterday to being 100% sure today.

I must say I'm starting to get somewhat tired of these posts in which some seem to speak as if they have some kind of a crystal ball. Now I read that January is likely to be a write-off as well. What are some people, Mystic Meg?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Sorry David I'm not trying to be mystic Meg at all. ☺But in lieu of me not producing an LRF this year I am just commenting on what I see. Particularly the background signals that at least HINT we have a long wait ahead of us.

I won't write off winter just yet of course I won't. But it cannot be argued we are in a pretty desperate place at the moment if only for the sake of our poor families from the north west. It has been truly horrific for them. Now that IS a reason to be downbeat. 

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Back to the models: One can only come to the conclusion in view of today's general output, that the GFS 06z and 12z runs from yesterday were both major outliers.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I don't think anyone should fall into the trap of taking today's model runs as gospel in terms of what will happen in the lead up to Christmas. The setup from the weekend onwards doesn't look straightforward to me and there is likely to be quite a few twists and turns in the models over the coming days. A tweak here and there could influence greatly what's likely further down the line.

Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

 Good point that always happens with very cold or warm runs happen Matt also thinks things are uncertain

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Just out of interest what is so special about the forecasts at the top of the model? The verification stats show little difference between 500 and 250, so it's a reasonable assumption that at 10 they're only marginally more reliable. On top of that people using the top levels are generally making a further extrapolation about what could happen a further x number of days down the line. Basically they're making a forecast based on a forecast. The reason I ask this is because I saw a tweet showing top level warming at GFS+348 hours and the accompanying suggestion was this was positive if you want cold weather. How is that demonstrably better than posting a 348 hours 500hPa chart showing cold (or mild for that matter) and which would widely be dismissed as FI or JFF? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Just out of interest what is so special about the forecasts at the top of the model? The verification stats show little difference between 500 and 250, so it's a reasonable assumption that at 10 they're only marginally more reliable. On top of that people using the top levels are generally making a further extrapolation about what could happen a further x number of days down the line. Basically they're making a forecast based on a forecast. The reason I ask this is because I saw a tweet showing top level warming at GFS+348 hours and the accompanying suggestion was this was positive if you want cold weather. How is that demonstrably better than posting a 348 hours 500hPa chart showing cold (or mild for that matter) and which would widely be dismissed as FI or JFF? 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

If we are talking about Strat forecasts, they are very deterministic and a lot more reliable than other types of forecasts.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

If we are talking about Strat forecasts, they are very deterministic and a lot more reliable than other types of forecasts.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

No they aren't! That's the point I've just made. The verification stats for the GFS show the big win is at the 500hPa level over the 1000hPa one as you'd expect. Go up to 250hPa and there's next to no difference to 500hPa. As I said, if you go up to 10hPa I think you'd find the gains are very marginal indeed. On top of this people then use the 10hPa charts at +384 hours and say something like..."and 3 weeks after this we're likely to be in the freezer"

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze