This is from my archive from 1903. A comparison of Febs 1895 and 1903 with a normal Feb. Just look at the normal Feb chart from over 110 years ago

No, the 18z fails - the Euroslug just won't budge and there is not undercut or trough disruption.

Kill the Euroslug!

P.S. Scotland may do OK out of it however.

Yes 18Z isn't looking as bad. NAO technically goes neg for a bit, jet is slightly further south thanks to a slightly weaker euro high and pressure rise way to the NW is stronger and a little more stable. Every chance it won't come to anything, but I prefer this run to 12Z! Fingers crossed for a slightly less dire set of ens.

No record warmth there ...................................thank god

I agree

12z ECM ensemble shows how the 12z GFS op was a real mild outlier. The ECM op itself was on the milder side too. Plenty of rather cooler ensemble members on offer this time next week

I still think a few more runs at least are needed from the big three before we can be anywhere near sure about developments early next week and what follows on from there.

Before anyone gets the wrong idea, I'm not saying a change to cold will happen, merely that the remainder of December may not end up being the mild & zonal write-off that some have put it down as.

Bingo - some of the mild-ramping yesterday was way over the top. Writing off the rest of December and (in one case) January too, marvellous stuff. If you could accurately predict the weather three weeks out like that you wouldn't be posting on a weather forum, you'd be a millionaire!

Yes, there is a chance we might get a record-warm month. There's also a chance I'll win Euromillions tomorrow!

Yesterday's 12z ECM control run showed a typical zonal setup, with warm sectors alternating with colder periods, not exactly record-breaking stuff but again a nice change (IMO) from the mild gunk of late. The ensembles continue to show a colder cluster and as long as that's the case you (not you, David, a more general "you") simply cannot say with any certainty that it looks mild forever and a day.

This is just getting silly now Scorchio!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

if only it were July eh? 😀

Not a great chart but this also shows the possible outcomes very well. Imagine forecasting for Scandinavia... so many totally different possibilities.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/senspanel1681.gif

This morning 0z GFS ensembles continue to paint a very mild picture and increasingly so much further north between 16-20th December. Attention needs to be drawn the the 18/19th when the mildness could become exceptional once again. 

I am not getting at you I promise. I have so much respect for you as one of the most knowledgeable and sensible posters on TWO BUT surely you must concur it really doesn't look good at all.

If you are seeing promise where the rest of us can't, please enlighten me because this is the worst set of models for cold I've ever seen in my 10 years in TWO.

This is an interesting graphic Tweeted to me by Simon Lee (https://twitter.com/SimonHaydn) yesterday showing how December has largely escaped the warming trend in the UK. I think this Dec may compare with 74 and 88 which were both followed by very mild Januaries and mildish Februaries. 

Darren only calling it as he sees it - as you are; that's why this forum is so good because everyone is able to voice their opinion. Yes doesn't look too exciting if you take the charts at face value this morning; but December can often be a month of two halves so I'm not calling the warmest December on record just yet. I'm just hoping it's not one of those horrible mild and wet Christmas days where it's so warm you have to have the windows open - I'm thinking of you 1988!!! 

Actually speaking of the big day GFS has something a bit more average for late December:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=336&mode=0

Ok JFF and subject to change as deep FI, but a nice change from the blowtorch.

Aye, a damned near perfect Christmas if todays GFS 00z came off! 

Just a shame its an extreme outlier and about as likely as Donald Trump being elected the next Mayor of london! 

On my phone so can't say for sure but Dec 85 doesn't look very mild on the graph I posted. 

It was very mild up to Christmas then it turned cold just after Christmas until New Year.

This image from weather poll shows the December max temperatures for Heathrow for 1985 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/klibild?WMO=03772&ZEITRAUM=04&ZEIT=31121985&ART=MAX&LANG=en&1449736667&ZUGRIFF=NORMAL&MD5= 

(There was a cold spell after Christmas with Heathrow having its first air frost of the month on the 27th)

here's another one for Heathrow..

http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/12-1985/ws-37720.html

Average high of 10.1C. Overall mean of 7.9C. Not record breaking but very mild nonetheless.