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Gavin P
10 December 2015 08:45:17

I think I'll probably be doing Winter 85-86 as my Christmas Day historic video interestingly.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
moomin75
10 December 2015 09:07:28


I think I'll probably be doing Winter 85-86 as my Christmas Day historic video interestingly.


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Gav did you ever get a chance to look at that early 20th century year that I messaged you about? Looked like a very interesting one full of variability.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Russwirral
10 December 2015 09:58:14
would be an incredible Xmas present if we got an Easterly out of this. One or two ensembles still going for a big cold event. Like ive said a few times - if we were in a cold spell - and the ensembles had a few members going mild - you would feel nervous wouldnt you.

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Brian Gaze
10 December 2015 09:58:29


 


It was very mild up to Christmas then it turned cold just after Christmas until New Year.


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


CET was 6.3C I think, identical to 2013.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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David M Porter
10 December 2015 10:02:32

ECM and GFS both seem to singing from the same song sheet this morning in as much as they indicate temperatures increasing again during next week, but then possibly dipping a bit (at least in northern parts) as we get nearer to Christmas. Were the GFS 00z to verify as shown, there would be quite a northerly blast about 3 days before Xmas. What is interesting is that at T+240, both GFS & ECM look quite similar with a W/SW airflow over the country, although GFS shows slightly less by way of low heights over Greenland.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
10 December 2015 10:38:57


Could see a Northerly out of this ....................maybe

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin P
10 December 2015 11:52:37


Gav did you ever get a chance to look at that early 20th century year that I messaged you about? Looked like a very interesting one full of variability.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Hey Moomin,


Remind me which year that was (It's slipped my mind in all the general craziness of recent weeks  )

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Retron
10 December 2015 12:32:46


Darren I know you love colder weather but come on you have to admit there is more than just a "chance" of a record warm month. Your beloved ECM is trending warmer every time I see it. No amount of hoping can prevent you and everyone else seeng what is staring us in the face.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It's not hoping, it's simply looking at all the available output. Just basing things on operational runs isn't a good way to look at things! The 0z ECM op, for example, was again at the top 10% from 156 onwards to the end of its run. The control run showed typical zonality with mild days interspersed with colder weather. By the end of the run (which is Christmas Day as it happens) there's a chilly westerly and NW'ly flow over the UK.



If you are seeing promise where the rest of us can't, please enlighten me because this is the worst set of models for cold I've ever seen in my 10 years in TWO.



You missed last month's models then! There were several days last month where the ensembles, both ECM and GEFS, were showing not even a single cold straggler.


The point this time is that there are still cold runs, a cluster of them in fact, in both ECM and GEFS. All the time they're present there's uncertainty in the outlook.


That's without going into the stratosphere, 500hPa patterns, jet stream alignment etc...

Leysdown, north Kent
Gooner
10 December 2015 12:46:00


 


It's not hoping, it's simply looking at all the available output. Just basing things on operational runs isn't a good way to look at things! The 0z ECM op, for example, was again at the top 10% from 156 onwards to the end of its run. The control run showed typical zonality with mild days interspersed with colder weather. By the end of the run (which is Christmas Day as it happens) there's a chilly westerly and NW'ly flow over the UK.


 


You missed last month's models then! There were several days last month where the ensembles, both ECM and GEFS, were showing not even a single cold straggler.


The point this time is that there are still cold runs, a cluster of them in fact, in both ECM and GEFS. All the time they're present there's uncertainty in the outlook.


That's without going into the stratosphere, 500hPa patterns, jet stream alignment etc...


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Valid point

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


moomin75
10 December 2015 12:49:01


 


Hey Moomin,


Remind me which year that was (It's slipped my mind in all the general craziness of recent weeks  )


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

The year was 1904 which my history book says had an exceptional summer (with possible temperatures locally hitting over 100 in July). The book stated that summer lasted until November with an abrupt change to 20 degrees of frost which I guess would have equated to 12F? 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
10 December 2015 12:51:13


 


It's not hoping, it's simply looking at all the available output. Just basing things on operational runs isn't a good way to look at things! The 0z ECM op, for example, was again at the top 10% from 156 onwards to the end of its run. The control run showed typical zonality with mild days interspersed with colder weather. By the end of the run (which is Christmas Day as it happens) there's a chilly westerly and NW'ly flow over the UK.


 


You missed last month's models then! There were several days last month where the ensembles, both ECM and GEFS, were showing not even a single cold straggler.


The point this time is that there are still cold runs, a cluster of them in fact, in both ECM and GEFS. All the time they're present there's uncertainty in the outlook.


That's without going into the stratosphere, 500hPa patterns, jet stream alignment etc...


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks Darren for your very thorough reply. Makes it a bit clearer. As I said I wasn't getting at you but just wondered what you were basing your posts of hints of colder patterns on.


Glad we have people like you here who is always willing to explain without getting narked by questions. ☺

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Fothergill
10 December 2015 13:00:07

A textbook El Nino Euroslug on the ECM ens mean. It looks like a very poor Christmas season for the Alpine ski resorts, can't imagine there's much snow there at all.


JACKO4EVER
10 December 2015 13:31:42


A textbook El Nino Euroslug on the ECM ens mean. It looks like a very poor Christmas season for the Alpine ski resorts, can't imagine there's much snow there at all.



Originally Posted by: Fothergill 


If the Euro HP would just nudge a few hundred miles north then it would dry things out nicely with the possibility of some sunshine and lighter winds. Still pretty mild tho

Maunder Minimum
10 December 2015 14:14:29


 


If the Euro HP would just nudge a few hundred miles north then it would dry things out nicely with the possibility of some sunshine and lighter winds. Still pretty mild tho


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


You are so lucky Jacko to get the winter weather you love every year.


Got any slug pellets to spare? There is a heap of slime to our south which needs dealing with ;-)


 

New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
10 December 2015 14:17:22

Interesting to see the UKMet seem to have ditched catchall phrases such as 'close to average' and are calling mild until Jan 8th. There must be quite a high degree of confidence which is surprising given what TomC said yesterday about MOGREPS / ECM.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
JACKO4EVER
10 December 2015 14:35:10


 


You are so lucky Jacko to get the winter weather you love every year.


Got any slug pellets to spare? There is a heap of slime to our south which needs dealing with ;-)


 


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Its not too nice today MM, I really only like dry mild weather tbh, but I suppose beggars can't be choosers. Its pisshing it down here.  For all you cold lovers it is still early doors- there is plenty of time left yet for a little sleet and the odd frost  ( ok I will get my coat....)


Only joking.... there is plenty of time yet for winter proper, though I do think December my be a write off for the cold camp with current output as it is

moomin75
10 December 2015 14:39:09


Interesting to see the UKMet seem to have ditched catchall phrases such as 'close to average' and are calling mild until Jan 8th. There must be quite a high degree of confidence which is surprising given what TomC said yesterday about MOGREPS / ECM.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It really is not all that surprising though is it. It was a pretty safe call and even more so now in light of that MetO update. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Shropshire
10 December 2015 14:50:49


It really is not all that surprising though is it. It was a pretty safe call and even more so now in light of that MetO update. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Yes, and when there is an outlook of mild West/South Westerlies, they always verify. 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gavin P
10 December 2015 15:54:37


The year was 1904 which my history book says had an exceptional summer (with possible temperatures locally hitting over 100 in July). The book stated that summer lasted until November with an abrupt change to 20 degrees of frost which I guess would have equated to 12F? 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Thanks.  I remember I did look at it when you suggested it and year does indeed look really interesting. 


Definitely one for the future.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
David M Porter
10 December 2015 16:25:58


It really is not all that surprising though is it. It was a pretty safe call and even more so now in light of that MetO update. 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


They may be saying that now, but based on the chages they have made to their recent updates, for me it remains to be seen whether they will still be saying that come early next week.


As for so-called safe calls, in my experience there aren't many if indeed any of those when it comes to longer term weather forecasting in this country. Prior to yesterday the MetO were still talking about a fair bit of uncertainty in their medium range updates for later December. No-one can say for sure right now that they wn't change again in some way, not least for the reasons Darren alluded to above.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Russwirral
10 December 2015 16:40:23
GFS wants to get an easterly going - it really does... but is failing every time.

Great synoptic ruined by the slug

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Solar Cycles
10 December 2015 16:55:59

GFS wants to get an easterly going - it really does... but is failing every time.

Great synoptic ruined by the slug

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I noticed that one, also there's far too much energy going over the top of the Scandi high. Still it keeps us all interested for now.

Russwirral
10 December 2015 17:18:50
it does feel odd that any scenario we find on the charts is always " a recipe for a strong jet"

When are things not good for the jet?

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Gusty
10 December 2015 17:42:19

A rare sight of beauty..the Arctic High moving southwards to Scandinava. Deep in FI and with no influence on the UK of course but nice to look at for the next 6 hours nevertheless. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Phil G
10 December 2015 17:42:57
Interesting 12z run from GFS.
General thing for me even in the reliable are the charts are now showing a mainly westerly flow, rather than southerly flows from a number of previous runs.

There is also the emergence of an Arctic HP in the early stages of FI. Could all be gone in the next run of course, but one to keep an eye on.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3001.gif 

It appears there will be a pattern change, and the outcome of what this will be is still undecided.


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