Why would that ridge licking South at 132 on the GFS 12, after swelling to a Scandi 1030, elongate and drop into Europe- two things that don't look nice.

Sure did Phil 

I always keep an eye out for developments in the Svalbard to northern Scandinavian areas. So many decent cold spells start with an extension of high pressure southwards in that area. 

As you say it will be gone in the next run but its encouraging to see it at least being toyed with in such a mild and mobile outlook.

It's amazing how each and every run seems to have such a different flavour to it at the moment. The weather for us unfortunately seems to remain relatively boring due to one of the few persistent influences being a Euro high, but all the other drivers around us are swinging about wildly from run to run - particularly the strength and positioning of northern blocking. 

I may be wrong here, but didn't the arctic high have a hand in the mid-January 1987 cold spell? Worth remembering that that memorable spell came on the back of a mild & unsettled December, a pattern which persisted into the early days of 1987.

yes it sure can Phil all this talk of writing December off and early Jan is very premature indeed anything can still happen I wouldn't rule anything in or out yet and as for the met update that changes daily it's no more than guesswork tbh.

if that arctic can build into Scandinavia it could be game on for post xmas cold.

edited

Christmas Day ENS First report.Ratio Mid : Cold- 70:30.Ratio Zonal: Anticyclonic-55 :45.

Will be looking at ENS  for Xmas day from GEFS 12h every day up to Xmas.Current figures show not quite as zonal as might be expected but a lot of non zonal mild from Anticyclones close or to SE of UK.

Yes that is correct David one of the few times the cold burnt my face walking my mountain dogs.

It did David.  A few cherry picked charts but such developments normally lead on to our more sustained cold periods.

1947

1991

2010

From memory the 12th January 1987 saw widespread daytime maxes of -6c to -8c and overnight minimums of -11c to -13c  in a stiff easterly breeze. 

Nope this was the best one Steve heavy sleety rain turning to heavy snow in the afternoon on boxing day relatives had to stay many nights a great time very cold winter followed

So with all the golden years charts being posted we can safely say there's nowt much in the reliable timeframe, well apart from the chance of snow on t'other side of Pennines on Saturday.

The GFS 12z ensembles are out and it paints a mild / very mild picture, especially for the south up to the 19th and further north in the 4-9 day period. 

Maybe I was a little premature last night writing off our chances of a pre Christmas cold spell. The chances are very small but should not be discounted, at least for the next few days. 

The NH view looks pretty mean on the ECM 240 chart tonight!

After last night's wrist-slitting, the charts today look a lot better (by comparison). So that means we have no idea what'll happen during the second half of this month! 

Some snow would be a perfectly feasible possibility in northern parts if the ECM T+240 chart were to verify, especially on higher ground.

Interesting that in today's runs, the GFS & ECM ops from both the 00z and 12z runs seem to have been in fairly good agreement as far as developments over the next 10 days are concerned. In other occasions recently, they have been at odds with each other in that timeframe, most recently on Tuesday when GFS in two runs showed a major rise in pressure over Greenland during next week which ECM refused to buy into in any way.

What all those charts have in common is that, prior to the cold spell kicking off, there was blocking over the arctic, ridging southwards (into either Siberia or Greenland)

I've not had an exhaustive look over current output, but this ingredient seems to me to be severely lacking.

Does anyone remember of there was much/ any blocking over the arctic at the end of 2012/start of 2013? The late part of December 2012 was very zonal and fairly mild and IIRC there were flooding issues in a number of places.

I am getting ready to put daffodils under my Xmas tree.