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Patrick01
11 December 2015 16:31:03

Little low for tomorrow looks like it has been nudged a bit further north, with a warm sector making it up to Morecambe Bay and across to Bridlington. Could still be some wintry weather over high ground as the system moves in tomorrow morning, as well as more generally over Cumbria, NYM and the Dales if this is the track the system takes.

Arbroath 1320
11 December 2015 16:43:14

GFS 12z out to t222 and all the way through the run the Euro/North African High is absolutely dominant. It's really difficult to see how it is going to get shifted anywhere in the near future, at least based on that run.  

GGTTH
moomin75
11 December 2015 16:46:30


GFS 12z out to t222 and all the way through the run the Euro/North African High is absolutely dominant. It's really difficult to see how it is going to get shifted anywhere in the near future, at least based on that run.  


Originally Posted by: Arbroath 1320 

Based on pretty much every run for the last week or so. Let's face it the consistency of the charts has been such that people must start realising soon that December at least is a virtual write off now.....and I'm not suggesting that there won't be slight cooler blips along the way, but mild, unsettled and zonal is the way this month will pan out except for our friends north who will clearly have a bit more interest at times.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
warrenb
11 December 2015 16:51:57


Based on pretty much every run for the last week or so. Let's face it the consistency of the charts has been such that people must start realising soon that December at least is a virtual write off now.....and I'm not suggesting that there won't be slight cooler blips along the way, but mild, unsettled and zonal is the way this month will pan out except for our friends north who will clearly have a bit more interest at times.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


You look at the GFS and it is definitely not zonal, very meandering if anything.

Tonbridge 45m 
doctormog
11 December 2015 16:52:34

temp contrast is brilliant. 12* in a matter of perhaps 100 miles

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/12/11/basis00/ukuk/tmp2/15121215_1100.gif

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


That appears to show an afternoon temperature of -6°C for parts of the Highlands tomorrow! Certainly look like being a rather cold day for northern parts with a steep temperature gradient across the middle of the U.K. - a good recipe for wintry goodness for someone in the right location. So an ice day for some northern parts, a snow risk for parts of the middle and continuing mild in the south seems to sum up the next day or two.


So, a chilly few days for northern parts before the milder westerly regime strikes back once more. Based on uncertainties beyond the next week to ten days it is way to early to write off December based on anything beyond guesswork and flimsy extrapolation.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
11 December 2015 17:43:57

No matter what some may tell you,


December isn't written off yet.

Leysdown, north Kent
Whether Idle
11 December 2015 17:46:58


No matter what some may tell you,


December isn't written off yet.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed Darren (!)  Perhaps tentative signs of a disturbance in the force* around Christmas time.


 


*mild force

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Charmhills
11 December 2015 17:49:13


No matter what some may tell you,


December isn't written off yet.


Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'll have some of that Darren.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 December 2015 18:11:06

December is not written off as far as I'm concerned.  I'd take mild all month if we could have frost and snow at Christmas.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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David M Porter
11 December 2015 18:52:16


December is not written off as far as I'm concerned.  I'd take mild all month if we could have frost and snow at Christmas.


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Agreed, Caz.


For anyone to write off the rest of this month when we still have 20 days to go would be unwise, to say the least. As I said earlier, if we were now inside the last week of December having had a mild, zonal month and the models were showing what they are for next week, then yes, OK. But often forecasting one week ahead is a tricky business with our climate, let alone three weeks.


Andy Woodcock once famously wrote off virtually a whole winter month based on what at the time seemed like poor model output from a cold point of view, and was later made to eat is words big time. Regardless of my own preferences, I would hate to see this happen to anyone else now!

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
11 December 2015 19:25:04

No comments on the 12z ECM???
Nope. Thought not as it shows unrelenting zonal mild mush as far as the eye can see.
Denying that December is likely to be a write off is denying the seemingly inevitable. There is no doubt as far as I can see, and so odds on a record mild December in my view.
It is a dreadful ECM for cold and continually ignoring run after run of these operational Is just mild denial but I do understand why people refuse to believe it - if things can't get worse then hope must remain I guess.
It is only one month and things can change, but not for the foreseeable.
Until I see even the remotest sign of blocking or the Euroslug dissipating, I can't see any way out of this AT THE MOMENT.
We desperately need a pattern change but when and where that will come from is beyond me.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
11 December 2015 19:31:28

Good to see you back Q in Model output Where is grumpy Peter I miss him 



 


Don't know about that, winds will be light so evaporational cooling will, likely, take over. I suspect the likes of leeds far from seeing sleety flakes will see a covering of wet snow. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Polar Low
11 December 2015 19:33:08

I must admit ecm loves that slug


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 


 


No comments on the 12z ECM???
Nope. Thought not as it shows unrelenting zonal mild mush as far as the eye can see.
Denying that December is likely to be a write off is denying the seemingly inevitable. There is no doubt as far as I can see, and so odds on a record mild December in my view.
It is a dreadful ECM for cold and continually ignoring run after run of these operational Is just mild denial.
It is only one month and things can change, but not for the foreseeable.
Until I see even the remotest sign of blocking or the Euroslug dissipating, I can't see any way out of this AT THE MOMENT.
We desperately need a pattern change but when and where that will come from is beyond me.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Polar Low
11 December 2015 19:34:55

Indeed cold spells came at very short notice in the eighties for some reason



 


Agreed, Caz.


For anyone to write off the rest of this month when we still have 20 days to go would be unwise, to say the least. As I said earlier, if we were now inside the last week of December having had a mild, zonal month and the models were showing what they are for next week, then yes, OK. But often forecasting one week ahead is a tricky business with our climate, let alone three weeks.


Andy Woodcock once famously wrote off virtually a whole winter month based on what at the time seemed like poor model output from a cold point of view, and was later made to eat is words big time. Regardless of my own preferences, I would hate to see this happen to anyone else now!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Bertwhistle
11 December 2015 19:44:40


No comments on the 12z ECM???
Nope. Thought not as it shows unrelenting zonal mild mush as far as the eye can see.
Denying that December is likely to be a write off is denying the seemingly inevitable. There is no doubt as far as I can see, and so odds on a record mild December in my view.
It is a dreadful ECM for cold and continually ignoring run after run of these operational Is just mild denial but I do understand why people refuse to believe it - if things can't get worse then hope must remain I guess.
It is only one month and things can change, but not for the foreseeable.
Until I see even the remotest sign of blocking or the Euroslug dissipating, I can't see any way out of this AT THE MOMENT.
We desperately need a pattern change but when and where that will come from is beyond me.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Pewtrick

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Chiltern Blizzard
11 December 2015 19:46:03


Andy Woodcock once famously wrote off virtually a whole winter month based on what at the time seemed like poor model output from a cold point of view, and was later made to eat is words big time. Regardless of my own preferences, I would hate to see this happen to anyone else now!


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


You're right David - assuming that a consistent run of output will not only remain consistent but will continue and verify over a 3 week period is risky.  However, surely after 10+ years of being reminded multiple times each winter of his 'error', Andy W deserves a break!  ðŸ˜Š


having said that, I don't think I remember the model output looking so bleak... Maybe 2013/14. The atmosphere can't help but to pull up mild SWesterlies. 

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Brian Gaze
11 December 2015 19:46:17


No comments on the 12z ECM???
Nope. Thought not as it shows unrelenting zonal mild mush as far as the eye can see.
Denying that December is likely to be a write off is denying the seemingly inevitable. There is no doubt as far as I can see, and so odds on a record mild December in my view.
It is a dreadful ECM for cold and continually ignoring run after run of these operational Is just mild denial but I do understand why people refuse to believe it - if things can't get worse then hope must remain I guess.
It is only one month and things can change, but not for the foreseeable.
Until I see even the remotest sign of blocking or the Euroslug dissipating, I can't see any way out of this AT THE MOMENT.
We desperately need a pattern change but when and where that will come from is beyond me.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


From a 'looking for cold weather' point of view we are currently seeing some of the worst charts of the Internet era. Lets be honest, there have been many horror shows served up post 1991 but some of this crop are bad even by those dire standards. Now having said that, I will agree with the others and say I think you are writing off the rest of the month too quickly and with too much certainty. As Retron has pointed out there have been colder options on the ensemble menu and three weeks gives enough time for change.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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moomin75
11 December 2015 19:47:21


I must admit ecm loves that slug


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Yes that was another of the guides I was referring to. It's going nowhere guys. Time to accept that. It will sod off at some stage, but just need to hope it does so during the winter.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Chiltern Blizzard
11 December 2015 19:49:37


Indeed cold spells came at very short notice in the eighties for some reason


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


presumably as our computational power was a tiny fraction in th 80s of what we have today, so our 7 day forecasts now match their 3 day ones then... There would have been no long lead up to a cold spell with the models hinting for a couple of weeks before it actually arrived.

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
moomin75
11 December 2015 19:49:55


 


You're right David - assuming that a consistent run of output will not only remain consistent but will continue and verify over a 3 week period is risky.  However, surely after 10+ years of being reminded multiple times each winter of his 'error', Andy W deserves a break!  ðŸ˜Š


having said that, I don't think I remember the model output looking so bleak... Maybe 2013/14. The atmosphere can't help but to pull up mild SWesterlies. 


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

But I would counter that somewhat that the default is prevailing westerlies and south westerlies and so they are far more likely to remain consistent and be more accurate than the odd cherry picked perbutation showing cold northerlies and easterlies.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
11 December 2015 19:53:18

Yes I agree but something is driving that monster to south that is huge and from a coldie point of view we do need to start to worry a little that *could* right many weeks off imo


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=144&mode=1


 



 


You're right David - assuming that a consistent run of output will not only remain consistent but will continue and verify over a 3 week period is risky.  However, surely after 10+ years of being reminded multiple times each winter of his 'error', Andy W deserves a break!  ðŸ˜Š


having said that, I don't think I remember the model output looking so bleak... Maybe 2013/14. The atmosphere can't help but to pull up mild SWesterlies. 


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Whether Idle
11 December 2015 19:55:31


 


From a 'looking for cold weather' point of view we are currently seeing some of the worst charts of the Internet era. Lets be honest, there have been many horror shows served up post 1991 but some of this crop are bad even by those dire standards. Now having said that, I will agree with the others and say I think you are writing off the rest of the month too quickly and with too much certainty. As Retron has pointed out there have been colder options on the ensemble menu and three weeks gives enough time for change.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I agree with this.  For southern England, there is some hope for cold for a day or two perhaps around Christmastime. Slightly less insanely mild in the north as we see at present.


 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Bertwhistle
11 December 2015 19:56:10


 


presumably as our computational power was a tiny fraction in th 80s of what we have today, so our 7 day forecasts now match their 3 day ones then... There would have been no long lead up to a cold spell with the models hinting for a couple of weeks before it actually arrived.


Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


 


True- and so we were often pleasantly surprised, but there was not enough time (no FI) to be disappointed.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Polar Low
11 December 2015 19:57:24

Indeed Brian I wont fly the white flag but very sensible post at were we are now



 


From a 'looking for cold weather' point of view we are currently seeing some of the worst charts of the Internet era. Lets be honest, there have been many horror shows served up post 1991 but some of this crop are bad even by those dire standards. Now having said that, I will agree with the others and say I think you are writing off the rest of the month too quickly and with too much certainty. As Retron has pointed out there have been colder options on the ensemble menu and three weeks gives enough time for change.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

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