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moomin75
13 December 2015 16:44:01
12z rolling and no change to the general pattern any time soon, December nailed on to be a record now.
I also find it amazing how consistent GFS has been about next Thursday being potentially 15-16c. This has shown on EVERY run for about the last week.....even when it was showing on the T+312 chart. That sort of consistency is remarkable. Ok I know it hasn't verified yet and may still cool down closer to the time, but to see run after run after run progging the same temperatures is exceptionally consistent.
I think (and it won't be proven until we get to Thursday) this just shows how much more reliable the charts are when it shows zonal mild south westerlies. This is why I've been so confident about writing off December and the post Christmas charts are looking every bit as mild.
I therefore think that a December CET above 9c will occur and God knows what this place will be like when January comes into view showing more of the same.
I would add a bit of optimism.....a lot of longer range models AND the Met Office no less have pointed consistently towards a colder February so all is not lost.......YET.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
13 December 2015 16:48:05

12z rolling and no change to the general pattern any time soon, December nailed on to be a record now.
I also find it amazing how consistent GFS has been about next Thursday being potentially 15-16c. This has shown on EVERY run for about the last week.....even when it was showing on the T+312 chart. That sort of consistency is remarkable. Ok I know it hasn't verified yet and may still cool down closer to the time, but to see run after run after run progging the same temperatures is exceptionally consistent.
I think (and it won't be proven until we get to Thursday) this just shows how much more reliable the charts are when it shows zonal mild south westerlies. This is why I've been so confident about writing off December and the post Christmas charts are looking every bit as mild.
I therefore think that a December CET above 9c will occur and God knows what this place will be like when January comes into view showing more of the same.
I would add a bit of optimism.....a lot of longer range models AND the Met Office no less have pointed consistently towards a colder February so all is not lost.......YET.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Maybe for you, but for the NE the 'winter' as far as decent snow is concerned ends much earlier. The NE gets the majority of its snow (with some glorious exceptions like yesterday) from the lake effect; by February that potential is all but gone whereas for you in more central and southern parts who rely mostly on Atlantic fronts anyway it doesn't matter so much. For serious snow in the NE the clock is very much ticking...


 


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
moomin75
13 December 2015 16:51:51


 


Maybe for you, but for the NE the 'winter' as far as decent snow is concerned ends much earlier. The NE gets the majority of its snow (with some glorious exceptions like yesterday) from the lake effect; by February that potential is all but gone whereas for you in more central and southern parts who rely mostly on Atlantic fronts anyway it doesn't matter so much. For serious snow in the NE the clock is very much ticking...


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I am always specifically referring to the CET Q. Perhaps that should have been specified, I concur the north is vastly different. In fact in many ways it's very similar to last winter thus far in that the north was always considerably colder.....but then that is the case every year.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
13 December 2015 16:54:24
Actually Q this part of the NE frequently sees its best snowfalls in February (and sometimes even in March. 2006?)

In the very short term the 12z GFS is still supportive of several hours of continuous snowfall for a large swathe of the Highlands and other parts of inland N Scotland overnight.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
David M Porter
13 December 2015 16:56:53

12z rolling and no change to the general pattern any time soon, December nailed on to be a record now.
I also find it amazing how consistent GFS has been about next Thursday being potentially 15-16c. This has shown on EVERY run for about the last week.....even when it was showing on the T+312 chart. That sort of consistency is remarkable. Ok I know it hasn't verified yet and may still cool down closer to the time, but to see run after run after run progging the same temperatures is exceptionally consistent.
I think (and it won't be proven until we get to Thursday) this just shows how much more reliable the charts are when it shows zonal mild south westerlies. This is why I've been so confident about writing off December and the post Christmas charts are looking every bit as mild.
I therefore think that a December CET above 9c will occur and God knows what this place will be like when January comes into view showing more of the same.
I would add a bit of optimism.....a lot of longer range models AND the Met Office no less have pointed consistently towards a colder February so all is not lost.......YET.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


With respect Moomin, the above is all speculation.


The only thing if anything I would say that looks "nailed on" is that December will be a mild month overall, more especially further south. As for after Xmas, I wouldn't even venture that far ahead just now. It took the models long enough early last week to get developments at the start of the week we're going into sorted out. What's more, GFS has been showing some colder conditions in FI for a time at least, so I don't seen how you can say that after Christmas is looking "every bit as mild".


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
13 December 2015 17:07:56


 


With respect Moomin, the above is all speculation.


The only thing if anything I would say that looks "nailed on" is that December will be a mild month overall, more especially further south. As for after Xmas, I wouldn't even venture that far ahead just now. It took the models long enough early last week to get developments at the start of the week we're going into sorted out. What's more, GFS has been showing some colder conditions in FI for a time at least, so I don't seen how you can say that after Christmas is looking "every bit as mild".


 


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The only thing nailed on is K going to Oz eh ?????

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chiltern Blizzard
13 December 2015 17:10:09
The persistence of SWlies on 12z is remarkable, as is the consistency of run after run. If it verifies, the December temp record would surely be smashed!

Rendlesham, Suffolk 20m asl
Brian Gaze
13 December 2015 17:11:25

The persistence of SWlies on 12z is remarkable, as is the consistency of run after run. If it verifies, the December temp record would surely be smashed!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Yes I just mentioned that on Twitter. It will I assume be one of the mildest runs in the 12z ensemble. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
13 December 2015 17:11:38

I sincerely hope this Christmas day/ Boxing day  chart with a long fetch SWly which says "atmospheric river" and " stalled front with orographic rain for the NW"does not materialise....


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Solar Cycles
13 December 2015 17:12:51

December looks likely to continue with unsettled theme at least and more than likely milder than average overall. It's been a disappointing start to winter overall with any encouraging early signs being pushed further and further back in FI. I suppose it was to be expected with such a rampant PV and a strong heigh anomaly over Europe.

Going forward and there's an outside chance of the dice rolling in our favour for something more festive over Xmas, for a day or so at least. Thereafter the odds favour the recurring theme of low heights to our NW and the never ending +height anomaly over Europe whilst we await any wave activity to hopefully disrupt the vortex into a more favourable position over time. Until then I think a grin and bear it approach is the best policy.🤔

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
13 December 2015 17:14:05

Actually Q this part of the NE frequently sees its best snowfalls in February (and sometimes even in March. 2006?)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


It's the same here, but granted the Lake Effect theoretically diminishes as the North Sea cools.
The Great Lakes produce copious snow until they freeze over though.

The most intense North Sea snow shower style events are often in March or even April.

North York Moors weather 
David M Porter
13 December 2015 17:14:41

The persistence of SWlies on 12z is remarkable, as is the consistency of run after run. If it verifies, the December temp record would surely be smashed!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 


Yes, but it's only one run. IIRC the GFS 00z this morning went for slightly colder conditions during next week, as did the 06z.


We've still got ECM to come tonight. This morning it threw out something of an outlier compared to the mean, Let's see what the 12z gives us this evening.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
moomin75
13 December 2015 17:14:59

The persistence of SWlies on 12z is remarkable, as is the consistency of run after run. If it verifies, the December temp record would surely be smashed!

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Exactly my sentiments but then keep getting told it's pure speculation. I really don't think it is speculation now. It's clearly staring us in the face. 😟

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
13 December 2015 17:15:45


I sincerely hope this Christmas day/ Boxing day  chart with a long fetch SWly which says "atmospheric river" and " stalled front with orographic rain for the NW"does not materialise....


 



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


If it does it will be a change in the trend which for the last few days has consistently shown snow for various parts of the U.K. (Both north and south). I guess we were due a mild run for Christmas Day.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JACKO4EVER
13 December 2015 17:16:31


I sincerely hope this Christmas day/ Boxing day  chart with a long fetch SWly which says "atmospheric river" and " stalled front with orographic rain for the NW"does not materialise....


 



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


yeh, no doubt an embedded front there- a rinse and repeat flooding fest. As much as I like milder weather, I am starting to worry that further heavy rainfall throughout the month is highly likely

doctormog
13 December 2015 17:18:22


Exactly my sentiments but then keep getting told it's pure speculation. I really don't think it is speculation now. It's clearly staring us in the face. 😟


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


As it is not speculation, just precisely what are the model verification statistics at say 10 days out?  

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
13 December 2015 17:20:41
Any model watching is speculation of sorts Doc but as has just been said the consistency of run after run after run has been exceptional lately. This is because it is clearly easier for the models to get a grip on zonal default patterns such as this. I would put my house on the rest of December continuing the status quo, and that is because the models are generally so bullish about the outlook.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
13 December 2015 17:21:52


December looks likely to continue with unsettled theme at least and more than likely milder than average overall. It's been a disappointing start to winter overall with any encouraging early signs being pushed further and further back in FI. I suppose it was to be expected with such a rampant PV and a strong heigh anomaly over Europe.

Going forward and there's an outside chance of the dice rolling in our favour for something more festive over Xmas, for a day or so at least. Thereafter the odds favour the recurring theme of low heights to our NW and the never ending +height anomaly over Europe whilst we await any wave activity to hopefully disrupt the vortex into a more favourable position over time. Until then I think a grin and bear it approach is the best policy.🤔


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


Good, level-headed assesment of things there SC.


 

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Whether Idle
13 December 2015 17:25:02


 


yeh, no doubt an embedded front there- a rinse and repeat flooding fest. As much as I like milder weather, I am starting to worry that further heavy rainfall throughout the month is highly likely


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


It has to be a distinct possibility .  The authorities should be making contingency plans and getting VERY busy to mitigate against a  further event as we saw on Dec 5th, which I highlighted as a possibility some 10 days earlier in much the same vein as this possibility.


The point is, the mild zonal weather these days has a habit of getting stuck in a rut which seems to lend itself to the chances of an extreme rainfall event getting heightened beyond what would seem a reasonable probability.


I am impressed with Cumbrian Community spirit but the LAST thing they need is a repeat of 5th December.  Hopefully the picture will shift, even a more westerly attack would push the rain more to the NW highlands which would have a less devastating impact.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
David M Porter
13 December 2015 17:27:09

Any model watching is speculation of sorts Doc but as has just been said the consistency of run after run after run has been exceptional lately. This is because it is clearly easier for the models to get a grip on zonal default patterns such as this. I would put my house on the rest of December continuing the status quo, and that is because the models are generally so bullish about the outlook.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


The things is Kieren, you constantly claiming here that this will be a record mild December doesn't make it any more or any less likely to happen. The models will make up their own minds eventually one way or another and the weather will do what it will do.


Besides, for all you say about consistency, haven't you seen some of the GFS runs, and one or two from ECM, in the last day or two which have shown at least a temporary cooler spell albeit still zonal during Christmas week? You are speaking as if you have a crystall ball.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
13 December 2015 17:28:04

I also noticed the modest strat warming goes into reverse after Xmas. Presumably this means the first half of Jan is a write off too. 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
NickR
13 December 2015 17:28:34


 


Maybe for you, but for the NE the 'winter' as far as decent snow is concerned ends much earlier. The NE gets the majority of its snow (with some glorious exceptions like yesterday) from the lake effect; by February that potential is all but gone whereas for you in more central and southern parts who rely mostly on Atlantic fronts anyway it doesn't matter so much. For serious snow in the NE the clock is very much ticking...


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


1 April, 2013. Just saying. ;)


 



 


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
doctormog
13 December 2015 17:28:37

Any model watching is speculation of sorts Doc but as has just been said the consistency of run after run after run has been exceptional lately. This is because it is clearly easier for the models to get a grip on zonal default patterns such as this. I would put my house on the rest of December continuing the status quo, and that is because the models are generally so bullish about the outlook.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


All I will say is that is a very brave call (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/anomaly-correlation-ecmwf-500hpa-height-forecasts?time=2015121100)


You could well be correct when the time comes but based on statistical evidence it is, with the available data, unverified speculation. That does not mean you will be wrong, far from it, you could very well be right it's just that it is more of a hunch than anything else.


If you were talking bout the next week or so I would happily agree but you have been constantly "writing off" December well beyond the limits of ANY reliable model range based on a hunch - that's my point. Again I am certainly not saying you will be wrong but it is just a hunch I'm afraid (simply because the models are not reliable enough to predict more than 2 weeks in advance!)

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
moomin75
13 December 2015 17:30:39
Yes it's a hunch Doc absolutely it is, but it is based on 10 years experience of model watching and also what I see before my eyes. Believe me I want it to be different as I know I will be missing the whole of January. I am pinning my hopes on later winter delivering which according to some of the longer range models it may well do.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Whether Idle
13 December 2015 17:31:13


I also noticed the modest strat warming goes into reverse after Xmas. Presumably this means the first half of Jan is a write off too. 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Smilies aside, the LRFs such as those produced by the Met Office point to a wetter and milder 1st half of winter.  Meterologically thats up til about 16th January.  So there may be credence in that theory.  It could be described as a safer bet than going for a serious bout of cold.


 Im in the colder February camp.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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