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Polar Low
13 December 2015 17:32:01

Lovely pictures Nicky


 



 


1 April, 2013. Just saying. ;)


 



 



Originally Posted by: NickR 

Polar Low
13 December 2015 17:34:38

Very sensible post SC



December looks likely to continue with unsettled theme at least and more than likely milder than average overall. It's been a disappointing start to winter overall with any encouraging early signs being pushed further and further back in FI. I suppose it was to be expected with such a rampant PV and a strong heigh anomaly over Europe.

Going forward and there's an outside chance of the dice rolling in our favour for something more festive over Xmas, for a day or so at least. Thereafter the odds favour the recurring theme of low heights to our NW and the never ending +height anomaly over Europe whilst we await any wave activity to hopefully disrupt the vortex into a more favourable position over time. Until then I think a grin and bear it approach is the best policy.🤔


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

moomin75
13 December 2015 17:37:47


 


The things is Kieren, you constantly claiming here that this will be a record mild December doesn't make it any more or any less likely to happen. The models will make up their own minds eventually one way or another and the weather will do what it will do.


Besides, for all you say about consistency, haven't you seen some of the GFS runs, and one or two from ECM, in the last day or two which have shown at least a temporary cooler spell albeit still zonal during Christmas week? You are speaking as if you have a crystall ball.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

No not a crystal ball David....but just educated guess work based on 10 years in this fantastic forum and what is unfolding before my very eyes.


I agree there have been one or two "outliers" over the last 7-10 days but even those have never shown more than a day or so cooler blip. Never in my 10 years of model watching have I seen so many consistent blowtorch runs and even many of the more respected members here have been saying as such.


For what it's worth, I am NOT writing of winter, but definitely December and the first part of January, based as I say, solely on gut feeling and educated guess work.


I truly hope I am wrong.....as long as it doesn't snow on 30th when I leave these islands for 6 weeks. 😆😀

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Quantum
13 December 2015 17:39:52


 


1 April, 2013. Just saying. ;)


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Yeh but that was on higher ground, and even then the focus was mostly over or west of the pennies!


I think my point still stands that the NE relies mostly on the lake effect, since most atlantic systems are blocked by the pennines or struggle to get north of the north midlands anyway.


Aberdeen is different because it is so far north, and the far north of Scotland always gets little features (including polar lows) in northerlies. I actually remember saying almost exactly the same thing roughly this time last year; which kinda worries me as we all know how that winter went for those in the east.


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
13 December 2015 17:42:35

You know at this point I suspect that in order to get a cold winter we need Nathan Rao to predict record warmth!


 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Polar Low
13 December 2015 17:42:50

Not as odd as Jan 1982 Q and look at that high to south and we got away with it


 



 


Phi E wrote Ive spoken to him since he thinks it was the one


The greatest disruption occurred on the 8th and 9th when an Atlantic depression moved into the Southwest Approaches; heavy snow accompanied by a gale force easterly wind produced one of the most severe blizzards of the century across southern England, the Midlands, Wales and Ireland. Throughout the snowfall, which lasted over 36 hours, temperatures were between -2 and -4C so the snow was dry and powdery and drifted freely in the wind. Transport services were completely dislocated over a wide area and millions of commuters failed to get to work in London two days running. South Wales was isolated for three days and troops were brought in to deliver essentials and to help clear roads. Worst hit were Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire and Glamorgan, where level snow lay over 60cm deep with drifts 6 metres high. Milder air reached Cornwall and south Devon, but heavy rain falling onto frozen ground in mid-Devon, south Somerset and west Dorset created extensive glazed ice in these areas.


 


Following the blizzard the cold tightened its grip. Early on the morning of the 10th the temperature fell to -26.1C at Newport in Shropshire, breaking the record for England which had been set just four weeks earlier. In Scotland, Braemar recorded -27.2C on the same morning, equalling the UK's all-time record which had been set way back in 1895. The afternoon maximum temperature at Braemar was -19.1C, another new record. As far south as Wiltshire daytime maxima below -10C were recorded on the 13th as freezing fog blanketed many areas.


 


 


1947 is really odd; I note for the first week of the cold spell the polar vortex is almost entirely in tact, and the cold that the UK and europe is in seems a little like a rock in an otherwise perfectly flowing stream. I'm amazed that such a setup doesn't collapse and is not reabsorbed into the main polar vortex. It could not be more different to the annihalation we see in 2010.



This is insane, look at the arctic; the polar vortex is completely unharmed. It does later collapse, but for the first week of the cold spell its like this. 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Brian Gaze
13 December 2015 17:43:15


 


Yeh but that was on higher ground, and even then the focus was mostly over or west of the pennies!


I think my point still stands that the NE relies mostly on the lake effect, since most atlantic systems are blocked by the pennines or struggle to get north of the north midlands anyway.


Aberdeen is different because it is so far north, and the far north of Scotland always gets little features (including polar lows) in northerlies. I actually remember saying almost exactly the same thing roughly this time last year; which kinda worries me as we all know how that winter went for those in the east.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


When I lived in Sunderland (1988 - 1994) the only significant snowfall was in Feb 1991. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
13 December 2015 17:44:24

Q for the record, we are nowhere near the far north of Scotland (Aberdeen is slightly north of centre geographically and that is not counting Orkney and Shetland)! It is a 210 mile drive to Thurso on the north coast and 205 to Berwick.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
John p
13 December 2015 17:46:13


I sincerely hope this Christmas day/ Boxing day  chart with a long fetch SWly which says "atmospheric river" and " stalled front with orographic rain for the NW"does not materialise....


 



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Yes,  that looks a carbon copy of the synoptics for last weeks floods. 

Camberley, Surrey
NickR
13 December 2015 17:50:06


 


When I lived in Sunderland (1988 - 1994) the only significant snowfall was in Feb 1991. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Sunderland is shocking for snow. NE gets heavy snow due to the NE snow machine - it's fantastic snow... but on the coast is very often marginal.

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Quantum
13 December 2015 17:51:44


Q for the record, we are nowhere near the far north of Scotland (Aberdeen is slightly north of centre geographically and that is not counting Orkney and Shetland)! It is a 210 mile drive to Thurso on the north coast and 205 to Berwick.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yeh but you are completely exposed to a northerly wind in a way that even somewhere like Dundee isn't (and certainty not Glasgow or Edinburgh). The point is, although Aberdeen does get some of its snow from the lake effect, the proportion isn't anywhere near as much as it is for places further south like Berwick. 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Justin W
13 December 2015 17:58:46


No not a crystal ball David....but just educated guess work based on 10 years in this fantastic forum and what is unfolding before my very eyes.


I agree there have been one or two "outliers" over the last 7-10 days but even those have never shown more than a day or so cooler blip. Never in my 10 years of model watching have I seen so many consistent blowtorch runs and even many of the more respected members here have been saying as such.


For what it's worth, I am NOT writing of winter, but definitely December and the first part of January, based as I say, solely on gut feeling and educated guess work.


I truly hope I am wrong.....as long as it doesn't snow on 30th when I leave these islands for 6 weeks. 😆😀


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


I've seen plenty of output that rivals what we are seeing now. Certainly back in the early days prior to 2005 on here. But my gut feeling is that this winter will be mild or extremely mild with, perhaps, a cold spell of a week or so towards the back end.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Polar Low
13 December 2015 18:00:56

This is what is recorded in terms of snow events during that time Brian you can look the charts up to match















































1988-89Feb 5.9 (*Nov 5.2)LittleNA20th Nov, South East, Dover 6"; 5th Apr, South East, 7" Tadworth.
1989-90Dec 4.9LittleJ27th Jan, Welsh hills leading to flooding.
1990-91Feb 1.5AverageDJF7-8th Dec., Birmingham 12-18in., Derbys., 2ft drifts. 2-4th Jan., northern Scotland 1ft. 5-10th Feb., general powder snowfall, 1ft in places. Bingley, Bradford, Longframlington 20in, London 5ins, "wrong type of snow" for British Rail.
1991-92Jan 3.7LittleMa13-14th Mar, blizzards Scottish Highlands; 22nd Mar., Peak District
1992-93Dec 3.6LittleODJFMMid-Oct, Scotland; 15-16th Dec., northern Scotland, Aviemore 18in.; 11-12th Jan, Scotland and N England, 12ins with 30ft drifts.; End-Feb., Aberdeen 8in, East Anglia 4in.; 13th-14th May, 1ft Moor House, Durham
1993-94Feb 3.2AverageNDJF20-22nd Nov., eastern counties of England and Scotland, 4-8in. 20-24th Dec., Scotland and Wales, 6in; White Christmas (slight), south Wales and Wessex. 6th Jan., IOW to Lincs., 6in. 15-16th Feb., northern England 4in. 20th-26th Feb., East coast and Eastern Scotland, 8" to 1ft.

 


 


 


 



 


When I lived in Sunderland (1988 - 1994) the only significant snowfall was in Feb 1991. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

David M Porter
13 December 2015 18:05:52


 


All I will say is that is a very brave call (http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/anomaly-correlation-ecmwf-500hpa-height-forecasts?time=2015121100)


You could well be correct when the time comes but based on statistical evidence it is, with the available data, unverified speculation. That does not mean you will be wrong, far from it, you could very well be right it's just that it is more of a hunch than anything else.


If you were talking bout the next week or so I would happily agree but you have been constantly "writing off" December well beyond the limits of ANY reliable model range based on a hunch - that's my point. Again I am certainly not saying you will be wrong but it is just a hunch I'm afraid (simply because the models are not reliable enough to predict more than 2 weeks in advance!)


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Exactly Michael. The above sums up nicely everything I have trying to get across to Kieren for days now, unsuccessfully as it would seem.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
13 December 2015 18:08:00


 


Sunderland is shocking for snow. NE gets heavy snow due to the NE snow machine - it's fantastic snow... but on the coast is very often marginal.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Yes, sometimes I used to drive inland to see snow.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Polar Low
13 December 2015 18:11:36

His is ok David he has been very good about the mild weather would I have been different if it had been really cold?



 


Exactly Michael. The above sums up nicely everything I have trying to get across to Kieren for days now, unsuccessfully as it would seem.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

moomin75
13 December 2015 18:16:43


 


Exactly Michael. The above sums up nicely everything I have trying to get across to Kieren for days now, unsuccessfully as it would seem.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Each to their own David.....at least here generally we can all speak our mind without too many flying off the handle.


I think Doc has summed it up well too if I'm honest. Time will tell won't it. I won't be back here gloating if it all goes according to what is being shown and that is a promise. I will continue to look at each model and try and find any sign of a change.....I'm even interested in January even though I won't be here. I bet you January will bring about an ice age to make me really peed off!! 😂

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
13 December 2015 18:29:17


Each to their own David.....at least here generally we can all speak our mind without too many flying off the handle.


I think Doc has summed it up well too if I'm honest. Time will tell won't it. I won't be back here gloating if it all goes according to what is being shown and that is a promise. I will continue to look at each model and try and find any sign of a change.....I'm even interested in January even though I won't be here. I bet you January will bring about an ice age to make me really peed off!! 😂


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Fair comment there, Kieren.


FWIW, I have seen Matty H say on here on several occasions in the past that in his view, forecasting more than a few days ahead with our variable climate is effectively a waste of time. While I wouldn't go as far as saying that such forecasting is completely pointless as Matty believes, I would say that anything shown for more than say 4-5 days ahead, sometimes not even that, needs to be treated with caution, and rather a lot of it.


For example, I seem to recall at least a couple of occasions in the summer just gone where forecasts for my area only 1-2 days ahead were altered at the last minute. Much as that hasn't happened any time in recent weeks, nothing can be ruled in or out with our weather when talking about further ahead than the following few days.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
JACKO4EVER
13 December 2015 18:39:45
I think Moomin has a point to some extent, I have noticed that 10 day plus mild charts (or a slightly modified version) tend to verify sometimes at winter when you can get a cold chart go tits up at just 48 hours notice. I suppose it's the climate we live in, there is so much to go wrong when delivering cold, and with the standard SW zonality being such a common theme it's no wonder.

Remember back to SWZ and his high pressure in Berne? Just don't stuck in a rut like that Moomin or we will all go mad 😀
moomin75
13 December 2015 18:47:40

I think Moomin has a point to some extent, I have noticed that 10 day plus mild charts (or a slightly modified version) tend to verify sometimes at winter when you can get a cold chart go tits up at just 48 hours notice. I suppose it's the climate we live in, there is so much to go wrong when delivering cold, and with the standard SW zonality being such a common theme it's no wonder.

Remember back to SWZ and his high pressure in Berne? Just don't stuck in a rut like that Moomin or we will all go mad 😀

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Unlike SWZ I don't actually have a bias towards mild ramping at all. Quite the opposite and I'm the first to get all mushy eyed when I spy a raging a Easterly. Just a terrible start to this winter though and certainly right up there with the worst charts ever seen in the TWO era. At least it can't actually get much worse, so anything will be an improve ten in my view.

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
13 December 2015 18:49:32

I think Moomin has a point to some extent, I have noticed that 10 day plus mild charts (or a slightly modified version) tend to verify sometimes at winter when you can get a cold chart go tits up at just 48 hours notice. I suppose it's the climate we live in, there is so much to go wrong when delivering cold, and with the standard SW zonality being such a common theme it's no wonder.

Remember back to SWZ and his high pressure in Berne? Just don't stuck in a rut like that Moomin or we will all go mad 😀

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Heaven forbid!


I can clearly remember following this thread at this time last year when the weather pattern was very similar to what we have now, albeit not quite as mild as seen recently. I can vividly recall some people were looking at the models and saying that the whole of last winter was likely to be a write-off like the 2013-14 winter was. Up until or just after New Year things didn't look great for cold, but not long after that they began to show the atlantic quietening down somewhat from mid-January onwards. That is exactly what happened in reality, and the second half of last winter, in my location at least, was somewhat drier and colder than the first half. Mid January is still a month away, and for my money predicting the end of Dec/start of January will be difficult enough just now, never mind anything for further ahead than that.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
David M Porter
13 December 2015 18:55:34


Unlike SWZ I don't actually have a bias towards mild ramping at all. Quite the opposite and I'm the first to get all mushy eyed when I spy a raging a Easterly. Just a terrible start to this winter though and certainly right up there with the worst charts ever seen in the TWO era. At least it can't actually get much worse, so anything will be an improve ten in my view.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Last year wasn't any better though, Kieren, at least in my neck of the woods. Also, early-mid December 2013 IIRC also saw some very mild weather before the first stormy spell commenced, much akin to what we've seen of late.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2015 18:57:39

The warmth over Europe and here is crazy . We are going to smash the cet record to smithereens . Records In Europe must be about to be smashed as well.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
13 December 2015 18:58:41


 


Last year wasn't any better though, Kieren, at least in my neck of the woods. Also, early-mid December 2013 IIRC also some some very mild weather before the first stormy spell commenced, much akin to what we've seen of late.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

True but where I am the whole winter was a write off. Not a flake of snow fell IMBY last winter. Marcus takes great delight at winding me up over the Witney snow desert, when 20 miles up the road he is buried in the stuff. 😂


Ah well, if he's an Arsenal fan he deserves a little bit of happiness eh? 😝

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
13 December 2015 19:01:36


The warmth over Europe and here is crazy . We are going to smash the cet record to smithereens . Records In Europe must be about to be smashed as well.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

These ECM charts are just getting more and more extreme. I simply can't believe they will verify that warm because if they do surely we are looking for a record daily December temperature somewhere in the UK next week. I saw the Channel Islands were perilously close to an 18c on an earlier GFS run. I still can't rule that out. 

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL

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