Yeh but that was on higher ground, and even then the focus was mostly over or west of the pennies!

I think my point still stands that the NE relies mostly on the lake effect, since most atlantic systems are blocked by the pennines or struggle to get north of the north midlands anyway.

Aberdeen is different because it is so far north, and the far north of Scotland always gets little features (including polar lows) in northerlies. I actually remember saying almost exactly the same thing roughly this time last year; which kinda worries me as we all know how that winter went for those in the east.

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

And so the operational horror show continues.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

That is all I need to know. I thought 2103-14 was as bad as it could get - how wrong I was!

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

that sounds ominous! Fortunately I don't think I'll be around then!!

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

But is it, though? The way I'm seeing it, I thought it's just merely a continuation of the mild, windy and damp theme rather than widespread and frequent damaging gales and flooding rain. The latter which affected virtually the bulk of the UK in the run up to Christmas in 2013 and beyond

What would be the case on this occasion is more orographic rainfall associated with a long-fetch tropical maritime airflow, something that the already affected areas do not need. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

One thing I've noticed with the GEFS is in the 7 to 16 day range they tend to over amplify upstream and this can often lead to cooler looking zonal flows as more PMT air is pushed across NW Europe. As the time approaches the flow often seems to be slightly flatter with more of a south westerly component. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

That is all I need to know. I thought 2013-14 was as bad as it could get - how wrong I was!

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

But is it, though? The way I'm seeing it, I thought it's just merely a continuation of the mild, windy and damp theme rather than widespread and frequent damaging gales and flooding rain. The latter which affected virtually the bulk of the UK in the run up to Christmas in 2013 and beyond

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Looks like we are going to have to wait till mid jan for any change .if its going to be mild it would nice to see the sun been grey skys alot here

Originally Posted by: doctor snow 

00z and 06z are remarkably similar with both ending with HP to the east. With slight differences meaning any cold air is syphoned off to greece on the 6z.

Nice to see some consistency on the charts though.

Unsettled is the way forward

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

 Good grief the slug looks even bigger

 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

 Good grief the slug looks even bigger

 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

That's a mighty powerful area of HP- it could take some shifting. As with the previous post above- look at the Arctic though- a shallow area of HP that is starting to nose southward. Any news on a SSW for the cold camp?

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

  Increasingly confidence for Dec to be a 'write off' for those hoping for some seasonal/cold weather. Rest of the month looks unsettled/mild 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Must even now be some doubt about the Xmas cool down. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze