I take your point, but years of bitter experience have led to fear that we are stuck in a never ending rut - groundhog day without the snow.

Once the euroslug makes an appearance in November, we know that it can last all winter. That is not to say that it will and for Heaven's sake, let's hope that something happens to kill it and change the pattern. But you can understand why people get despondent at this time of year, since we know that once this pattern takes hold, it never seems to clear off.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Not long ago a read a comment by NOAA that the model tends to overcook areas of low pressure that are crossing the U.S. with a consequential amplifying effect as ridges into/across the Atlantic are enhanced.

It does tie in with my own suspicions too 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

There's a ongoing, huge El Nino going on - there's excess energy (warmth) in the atmosphere and it's effect are only just taking hold. We're also in a spell of weather that has pushed warm air well east and north of us. Something very similar is going on in N America. It takes weeks for a cold spell to happen/establish here (if at all) in such circumstances.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Well said Saint. I would echo every word of that.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

uk Dec record at risk?

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

possibly, and it wouldn't be a surprise. Be careful though PL- it's not a cold chart and it's almost getting like its a crime to talk about mild weather in some people's eyes 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Hi All, been monitoring the site for years but only just got round to sorting my registration!

Looking through the charts, this really is a depressing one for me!

Making it worse for me is that fact that im due to go Skiing in the southern Italian Alps (Sauze D'oulx) 17th of January and I just cant see this HP being shifted and them receiving any snow!

Originally Posted by: Graham Swanton 

possibly, and it wouldn't be a surprise. Be careful though PL- it's not a cold chart and it's almost getting like its a crime to talk about mild weather in some people's eyes 

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

Well I've already been proved wrong on one thing. I suggested this thread will last all winter before reaching 50 pages and after 5 or 6 days we are already approaching 35 pages so obviously it is still interesting model watching, even if not what the majority of us want to see.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

It isn't a crime in my eyes.

There is nothing wrong with so-called mild ramping any more than there is anything wrong with cold ramping, as long as it is kept within the context of model discussion. Polar Low did this by including a chart to back up his point, thereby making reference to the model output.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

david you have always been more than fair in letting people  share their views, it's a shame other posters aren't as liberal. Interestingly John Hammond has just been on the 6.30 bbc1 weather indicating we could be in for record breaking high temperatures later this week, though I know this isn't the thread to discuss this in. 😀

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 

If it does become record breaking I will head over to the gloating thread because someone here predicted it last week.....

Can't think who.  😆😆

Disclaimer: Lighthearted post alert!! 😊

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

XMAS ens now have 90% zonal and 80% mild so not looking good for a white one.However five days later build up of pressure to either  south or east giving 50:50 zonal:anticylonic flow and around 45:55 mild :cold

Originally Posted by: roger63 

O/T somewhat but John Hammond just mentioned potential record breaking temperatures later this week, by that he obviously means December all time record could go. As I've said, the GFS has been remarkable in its consistency in progging temps around 15-16 degrees for this Wednesday and Thursday. It started showing these sort of extreme temperatures way out at T+288 and now we are within 72 hours. That is a very exceptional performance from GFS model if as it appears likely, it does now verify.
Add on a degree or two with that bit of sun and Foehn effect and that is why John Hammond just mentioned that the record could well go.
So if it does, this is much cuedos to GFS which has been incredibly consistent this month. It is obviously as previously mentioned much easier to confidently forecast these zonal mild patterns as that is the default pattern, but it is quite another to accurately predict 12 days out some record breaking temperatures.
If they come off, hats off to GFS in my view.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I pointed out the possibility for something exceptional this Thursday in the middle of last week, based on an ECM run.

Either way, the outlook is god awful 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Out of curiosity how do you define mild

I had a quick flick through the 2m temps on the postage stamps for Xmas day and I got 8 ens average or chilly and remainder mild to very mild. A mild majority but not 80%

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Not an absolute science Hippydave.Look first at airflow Zonal v Anticyclonic and  wind direction.Anything that is  clearly between NW and E goes down as cold anything between SE and west goes as mild.The ones that look difficult ie between SE and S and between W and NW check with uppers.I guess ones that are  near  average are those that you have to put in  one camp or another.Would certainly welcome a more rigorous way of making the mild:cold split.

Originally Posted by: roger63