It sure is a warm world.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015121512/gens-5-1-384.png

Please Father Christmas...

Shropshire, there are indeed many examples where a broad pattern such as this exists the whole way through.  That's why the likes of many southern cities have a MODE average of laying snow days annually  of 0, even if the MEAN is closer to 6, thanks to anomalous big hitting years such as 2010 or 2013 or 1991.

My view is that "mother nature pays her debt be it dry or wet" the essence meaning things will balance out.  The question is - can the fulcrum shift as early as January (wishful) or February (backed up by MOGREPS at present) or will the pattern change happen later as in March or April?  I haven't the foggiest as to WHEN it will happen, I do believe it will happen.  Sods law suggests as soon as there is too much strength in the sun and too little cold air left to tap into, the change will occur.  Probably around 23 March then.

That's the Ian "Melanie" Brown school of thought........

The problem with this is that this is based on a small data set against records going back over 350 years.

Rather than hoping that things will balance out in terms of cold at a later date, it is quite possible that nature is re-paying the big negative anomoly of December 2010. .

I'm starting to get the feeling that this Christmas will be Green rather than White in the south this year. Not too sure when to go public with family and friends though. .

I think we've more than repaid that over the several of the 15 intervening winter months Steve.

More of a question as to whether to have a BBQ turkey or oven baked

It is getting cooler, but still above average. Amazing. Definitely looking like a green Christmas for the majority.

oh wow now she is gorgeous 😍

Apologies for pointing out what I've said before - but there's no such thing as the law of averages. Every new coin toss has an equal chance of heads or tails. For weather it's even worse, as many weather patterns once established stick around for weeks or even months. So, before computers, the best weather forecast for tomorrow was the 'same as today'; and we're noe at the stage where the best weather forecast for next month is 'the same as this month'. Ugh!

Excellent post, John.

I'm not sure how anyone can be pleased with the days ahead.......yes mild but wet and misty also, more threat to the already flooded areas.

Today was 11c, but it didnt feel like it , it was a miserable day

Give me temps of 5c and sunny

Each to their own of course

Agreed! Those who think this winter will "average out" are forgetting the previous worst winter of 2013-14.

could be worse... Like last years cold wet NW flow... At least this mild and 'relatively' dry weather is good for the mushrooms.

You've set me up nicely SC;

The emerging signs of an amplifying 'Sceuro' high represent the likely response to tropical convection getting its act together and progressing from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific via Indonesia. Current output gets it far enough to start of a sequence of events that could prove significant for changing our fortunes this winter - but only if the convection can go further still and trigger an important feedback cycle.

Essentially, the stronger the convective signal, the more likely the amplification is to be sufficient for the Sceuro High to build into the high latitudes, at which point it will be well placed to do some serious damage to the polar vortex. At this point, IF the convection holds on far enough east in the Pacific, there will be support for that ridge to persist as a blocking feature on the Atlantic/Europe side while also conditioning the Pacific side for further pulses of convection to develop and move east, again adding amplification to the pattern. Both of these things can seriously hammer the vortex.

There are no guarantees, of course. There's still a significant risk that the tropical convection doesn't play ball, in which case the Scuero High will tend to remain a flatter feature that works with a mid-Atlantic trough to bring frequent bouts of (at times exceptionally) mild air in our direction. In other words, a variant on the current and near-future theme. That then leaves us waiting and hoping for either another area of more organised tropical convection pushing east through the Pacific OR for the vortex to simply blow itself out... which would probably take until February.

A typical strong El Nino favours the latter outcome in a big way - but this year's event is not typical and the recent model trends towards a significant convective event moving into and across the Pacific are a reflection of this. You'll notice I've refrained from calling it an MJO event; this is because the convection is actually too spread out to technically qualify as such - but it can have similar impacts. It just means that analysis tools are less certain and in turn the models will have a harder time handling its evolution (and let's face it, they already struggle enough!).

I am in fact cautiously optimistic about our prospects by mid-Jan, having cast December into the 'unlikely' bin a long time ago.

Far better put than my puny effort SC.😁

I think if  if we do end up with a flatter pattern from such a set up then warm air being pumped up will only benefit us down the line as this will aid any potential SSW.

Where's that then

I think it should be remembered that 2013-14 was a pretty exceptional winter overall, for all the wrong reasons. For all legendary winters such as 1962-63, 1978-79 et al were exceptional for sustained severe cold, the winter of two years ago was just as notable for prolonged heavy rainfall and all the problems it caused. Even the era of mainly mild winters in the 90's and most of the 2000's didn't produce one as bad as it was.

I'm pretty sure that nobody here wants to see a winter like that again anytime in the near future.