Well if we enter 2016 with charts like this, at least things can only get better.

Originally Posted by: Fothergill 

At least it would be a bit drier for many areas compared to recently if that were to verify, if not cold.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Indeed David, but with charts like that and no real end in sight, one could be forgiven for writing off at least the first half of January too. 😋

In all seriousness though, these are without a doubt desperate times. Before we know it we will indeed be half way through the meteorological winter with no sign of winter at all in England and Wales.

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Indeed David, but with charts like that and no real end in sight, one could be forgiven for writing off at least the first half of January too. 😋

In all seriousness though, these are without a doubt desperate times. Before we know it we will indeed be half way through the meteorological winter with no sign of winter at all in England and Wales.

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Indeed David, but with charts like that and no real end in sight, one could be forgiven for writing off at least the first half of January too. 😋

In all seriousness though, these are without a doubt desperate times. Before we know it we will indeed be half way through the meteorological winter with no sign of winter at all in England and Wales.

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

It's the 16th of December! Even a 10-day forecast, which is the furthest anybody should be looking, barely takes us past Christmas. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

By 384 hours the Alaskan part of the polar vortex seems to have gone, and the vortex is now centered actually over Greenland. Note you can still see some of the debris in the middle east from when it got cut off earlier! 

Although to a certain degree it seems to have intensified again, it has been displaced to the south which is interesting. Note this is also the case at much higher levels including the stratospheric polar vortex. Note the tropospheric polar vortex is a 'thing', as far as I'm aware the lowest part is indeed the 500hpa level which is what I am looking at now. Anyway at the 10mb level:

We see some of this displacement south mirrored. What I think this means in practice is the potential for LPs to move on more southerly courses than usual which does mean we could be potentially on the cold side come January! 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Indeed David, but with charts like that and no real end in sight, one could be forgiven for writing off at least the first half of January too. 😋

In all seriousness though, these are without a doubt desperate times. Before we know it we will indeed be half way through the meteorological winter with no sign of winter at all in England and Wales.

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I like mild weather. This is nice.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Good on you Moomin.  I don't blame you for adopting that approach, I can think of many winters - 1973-4, 1974-5, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1988-89, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02, 2006-7, 2007-8, 2013-14, 2014-15 which started mild and continued that way without any great change.

It could be the case that January will deliver cold and snow, but of all the winter months,  January regularly fails to deliver.  In my book December and February have been more inclined to deliver the cold goods for a long while now.

Hope will spring eternal for some of a SSW or some other mechanism to bring cold, but for others such as yourself you prefer a different approach, and that is to be respected, and when the long term stats are viewed objectively, could be regarded as sagacious.

I would like a cold snap or spell as much as the next cold lover but my expectations are tempered by my knowledge of past events.  It is possible, of course, that there could be a dramatic turn around to cold for the UK in early January , but I see the current pattern as self sustaining and balanced.  This wont stop me looking at the models, but it will stop me clutching at cold straws which are ultimately chimeras.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Good on you Moomin.  I don't blame you for adopting that approach, I can think of many winters - 1973-4, 1974-5, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1988-89, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02, 2006-7, 2007-8, 2013-14, 2014-15 which started mild and continued that way without any great change.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

February is the only winter month that hasn't seen a sub-3C CET this century. We are well overdue a properly cold February.

Also, LRFs by amateurs are usually complete crap. People get lucky - simple as that. Sitting on your arse saying it's going to be exceptionally mild doesn't make you a skilled forecaster.

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 

Good on you Moomin.  I don't blame you for adopting that approach, I can think of many winters - 1973-4, 1974-5, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1988-89, 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02, 2006-7, 2007-8, 2013-14, 2014-15 which started mild and continued that way without any great change.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

I like mild weather. This is nice.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

You clearly haven't been under 4 feet of water recently then

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Indeed David, but with charts like that and no real end in sight, one could be forgiven for writing off at least the first half of January too. 😋

In all seriousness though, these are without a doubt desperate times. Before we know it we will indeed be half way through the meteorological winter with no sign of winter at all in England and Wales.

I won't write off winter just yet, but unless a change starts showing soon, not only in the models, but also in the MetO outlook, I think we need to start looking towards February as MetO long range model has hinted at.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I just wonder how many weeks it'll take to fill 50 pages in this thread. I venture to suggest this one may last all winter.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Well this prediction was way off, we are still not within a week of Christmas Day and we are already up to 45 pages.

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

1973-74, December was not that mild, was close to average.

1974-75, second half was cooler than the first half, it was cooler than the second half of winter 1981-82

1979-80, January was actually below average.

1987-88, actually started off chilly, the first half of December was below average

1991-92, December and January were actually roughly overall average

2001-02, December and first 10 days of January were below average

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1